After a week off to rest mentally and physically, Creighton begins the final five weeks of the regular season Saturday on the road at #8 Villanova. They’ve put themselves in a decent spot as the conference season nears the halfway point, with a 5-3 record in the league good for third place, and a NET ranking of 25. They’re on the six-seed line in the NCAA Tournament according to the 98 bracketologists tracked by BracketMatrix.com. And after they return to Omaha from this two-game road trip to Villanova and Providence, five of their final eight games are at home.
First up is a rematch of a game that got away from them in Omaha. On January 7, Creighton led for 34 minutes and 33 seconds, and by as many as 14 points. But the Wildcats stole the victory with a late surge, leaving the Jays to lick their wounds and lament a missed opportunity.
Winners of seven straight games, Villanova’s defense has improved significantly over the course of the season. It was a liability in December; it’s a strength as the calendar flips to February. They’re second in the Big East in defensive efficiency, allowing 0.917 points per possession in league games. In their last four (wins over UConn, Butler, Providence and St. John’s), their opponents have scored an average of 58.8 points. In Big East games, they’re holding opponents to 24.6% shooting from three-point range, and an effective field goal percentage of 45.0%.
CU witnessed that first-hand in January. Villanova’s length and versatility on the perimeter limited Creighton to just 14 three-point attempts, and just three makes. They held Ty-Shon Alexander, Mitch Ballock, and Marcus Zegarowski to 9-for-30 shooting from the field — including 1-for-10 from beyond the arc. Mitch Ballock explained their effectiveness:
“They played on top of us and took away our strengths. It was tough to get open looks. Every time we’d come off a screen a guy was hedging hard and a guy was trailing hard. When you can switch everything you can take away open shots. When you can switch five ways it’s really difficult to get good looks because you can stay on top of guys and make everything go to the rim.”
Offensively, they’ve improved too. Coming into the first meeting this season, Saddiq Bey was Villanova’s second-leading scorer. He’s upped his scoring average by nearly a full point since then to become the team’s leader, at 15.3 points per game. He was in a shooting slump entering that game, and despite hitting a big shot late, struggled against the Jays too — he had 11 points on 3-of-10 shooting (and 2-of-8 on threes). That’s not the case anymore. Bey is coming off a 23-point performance at St. John’s (5-of-9 from three-point range, 3-of-5 on two’s), and has made 26 of his last 46 three-pointers since the first game against CU.
Though he’s no longer leading the team in scoring (though it’s close; he averages 15.2 points), Collin Gillespie remains their most indispensable player — even if hardly anyone nationally acknowledges it, or talks about him in those terms. He’s a stone-cold assassin that makes winning plays for his team; in Omaha he scored 24 points on 8-of-10 shooting, had seven rebounds, and committed just one turnover in 39 minutes. WBR’s Matt DeMarinis recapped his night thusly:
“He hit his first 3-pointer of the night to answer the 11-3 run that Creighton went on over the first 6:55. His second and third pulled the Wildcats within 10 after the Bluejays had rattled off a 13-2 run to extend their lead to 14 points with 6:29 left in the opening half. His fourth and final triple gave his team a 55-54 lead with 3:39 to go, his second of two assists on the night led to Saddiq Bey’s 3-pointer with 2:47 to go that gave Villanova the lead for good, his mid-range jumper with 2:03 on the clock made it a three-point game, he knocked down two of his four free throws to make it a five-point game with less than 10 seconds remaining, and he grabbed six of his seven rebounds over the final 5:16 to ensure that Creighton possessions went one and done down the stretch. Big plays in big moments.”
Kansas City freshman Jeremiah Robinson-Earl nearly averages a double-double at 11.3 points and 9.7 rebounds per game. He’s had 11 or more boards in five of their eight league games, including 14 in Omaha, 14 against Butler, and 14 at St. John’s. In particular, his offensive rebounds were back-breakers against the Jays last month — three times he secured a second chance for his team, and they converted all three. He’s 6’9″, 230 pounds, and was nearly impossible for CU to box out in the first game.
6’4″ freshman Justin Moore averages 10.8 points and 2.89 rebounds off the bench, and has made the third-most three-pointers on the team while shooting 33% from range. He slid into the starting lineup earlier this week because of an ankle injury to Jermaine Samuels. The 6’7″ junior is averaging 11.1 points and five rebounds per game, and remains questionable for Saturday’s game. If he doesn’t go, its an opportunity for 6’9″ sophomore Cole Swider to see more time; Swider averages 7.6 points and 3.3 rebounds in 21 minutes per game off the bench.
Villanova loves to bury teams with big, unanswered runs. To beat them, you have to find a way to avoid those stretches — or to withstand them. The Wildcats used a 15-0 run in Philly two years ago to build a lead the Jays could never overcome in a 98-78 loss. They had two separate 13-0 runs in the second half alone in Omaha last year. They ended the game last month on a 20-7 run. Creighton nearly pulled off the upset in Philadelphia a year ago because they avoided that sort of run.
Following the loss to Villanova last month, Greg McDermott talked about his team’s mistakes and how the Wildcats made them pay for those mistakes. He called it “death by paper cut after paper cut after paper cut, and finally you bleed to death.” Mistakes like biting on shot-fakes, committing silly fouls away from the basket, throwing the ball away — Villanova feasts on errors like that. They did it in Omaha last month, and they’ll do it Saturday if they have the chance. For CU to win, they have to be disciplined defensively, avoid unforced errors, and keep Villanova from going on long unanswered runs.
Easier said than done, obviously.
- Tip: 11:00am Central
- Venue: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
- TV: FS1
- Announcers: Brian Custer and Len Elmore
- In Omaha: Cox channel 78 (SD), 1078 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 620 (SD), 1620 (HD)
- Outside Omaha: FS1 Channel Finder
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 219, Dish Network channel 150
- Streaming on FoxSportsGO
- Radio: 1620AM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Ross Ferrarini
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- For Cord Cutters
- Six players account for 94.6 percent of Villanova’s scoring and 87.8 percent of the minutes
- Villanova has the second-best win percentage in the country since the start of the 2013-14 season, which coincides with the reconfiguration of the Big East. Villanova is 208-34 (.860), just behind a Gonzaga program that is 215-30 (.878). Of the 75 different schools to play Villanova in that time, only 21 have actually beaten the Wildcats — and only eight have beaten them more than once. Creighton is one of those eight.
- Jay Wright (587) and Greg McDermott (503) are currently the two-winningest coaches in the Big East. This is the first regular-season Big East game featuring two coaches with 500+ wins since March 2, 2013 when Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim faced Louisville’s Rick Pitino.
- Creighton defeated Xavier last Sunday, 77-66, despite being outscored 36-16 in the paint. It was the first time that Creighton won any game despite being outscored by 20 points or more in the paint since a 74-73 NIT win over Rhode Island on March 18, 2008.
- How about this oddity unearthed by Bluejay play-by-play man John Bishop (and featured in Rob Anderson’s excellent as always game notes): Creighton has lost the offensive rebound battle in each of the last 19 games, but gone 15-4 in those contests.
- Creighton owns a 5-5 mark in Quadrant 1 games and is 10-0 in contests in Quadrant 2, 3 or 4 games. Creighton’s five Quadrant 1 wins are tied for sixth in the nation, trailing only Kansas (8), Seton Hall (7), Baylor (6), Butler (6) and Iowa (6). Their three Quad 1 road wins rank tied for third-most nationally, trailing only Seton Hall (5) and Kansas (4).
Villanova leads the all-time series with Creighton, 14-3, including an 8-1 record in Pennsylvania. In the last meeting, Villanova won 64-59.
On February 1, 2012 the 12th ranked Bluejays thumped Illinois State 102-74 to move to 21-2 and 11-1 in the Valley. From Ott’s Thoughts after the game:
“Things started well for Creighton Wednesday, and only got better as the night wore on. Grant Gibbs reached deep into his bag of playground hoops tricks, threw the ball of a defender’s turned back on an inbounds play, and laid the loose ball up for Creighton’s second hoop of the night. The evening ended with Ross Ferrarini hitting back-to-back triples to hit the century mark and fellow Bench Mob member Matt Dorwart knocking down two free throws to push CU’s total to 102 points. In between, the Bluejays treated fans to arguably the best offensive performance in recent program history.
Hyperbole? Hardly. It wasn’t just shooting 56% from the field, 52% from three-point range, and 84% from the free throw line. It was passing up good shots for great ones. It was the effectiveness of almost every lineup combination Greg McDermott put on the court. It was his son, Doug, having a monster game (again), while guards Gibbs and Antoine Young (7 assists apiece) facilitated an efficient offensive machine.
The Bluejays assisted on 22 of 31 made baskets, while committing just 9 turnovers. Led by McDermott’s 25 points (on 9-11 shooting, including a perfect 3-3 from three-point range), six CU players hit double-figures in points. Gibbs added 12 points to his 7 assists and 4 rebounds. Gregory Echenique played only 17 minutes put scored 10 points and grabbed 6 boards. Jahenns Manigat shook off some tenderness in his knee and knocked down 3 of his 4 three-pointers en route to 11 points. Josh Jones scored 10 points off the bench, and Will Artino scored 11 points without missing a shot from the field (3-3) or the charity stripe (5-5).”
The Bottom Line:
KenPom predicts a 75-70 win. Jon Nyatawa in the OWH predicts a 76-69 Wildcat win. ESPN’s BPI says Villanova has a 81.4% chance of victory.
Unfortunately, that all sounds about right.
#8 Villanova 74, Creighton 68
