Saturday’s regular season finale is all about seeding for #10 Creighton. Win, and they take second place in the Big East regardless of what anyone does on Saturday. Win, and their case for a three-seed in the NCAA Tournament gets that much stronger.
For their opponent, the Villanova Wildcats, the stakes are much higher. With a win, they keep hopes of an at-large NCAA Tournament bid alive. Lose, and their season is probably over next week short of earning the auto-bid in the Big East Tourney. It’s a fact they’re acutely aware of.
“Our approach is, (the Creighton game is) our Super Bowl,” Wildcats coach Kyle Neptune said after their 66-56 loss at Seton Hall on Wednesday.
Greg McDermott noted on Thursday that from the film he’s watched, Villanova has been “playing at a very high level the last three weeks, and I’m sure we’re going to get the best version of them on Saturday afternoon.”
The Bluejays have plenty of motivation, too. Of their eight losses, the one to Villanova on December 30 might be the most regrettable. On the night that Doug McDermott’s #3 was hoisted into the rafters, the Jays lost 68-66 in overtime after blowing a 14-point second half lead. Villanova overcame that deficit by scoring on 14 of 21 possessions, shooting 14-of-19 (3-of-6 from 3) with two turnovers over that stretch.
Meanwhile, over the last 10 minutes Creighton scored four points on 16 possessions, shooting 2-of-11 from the field and 0-of-5 from three. They missed all three of their free throws in the final five minutes, including the front end of a one-and-one. In overtime, they again failed to convert from the line, as Baylor Scheierman missed the front end of a one-and-one with a chance to tie the game with five seconds left.
Villanova doesn’t force a ton of turnovers, ranking 211th in that category nationally (with their defense getting a turnover on 16.6% of opponent’s possessions) and eighth in the Big East. Yet the Jays had 16 turnovers in that game, which turned in 13 points for Villanova.
After losing five straight over a two-week stretch to end January, they then won six of eight before the loss to Seton Hall on Wednesday. Asked what they’ve improved on during the recent stretch, McDermott said he thought the Wildcats were playing well before — but that getting Justin Moore back from injury is probably the biggest difference.
“I think it’s always been there. Obviously, you know, the Justin Moore injury and working him back into the lineup has taken a little bit of time, and now he’s playing really well,” McDermott said. “So you add that piece to what I thought was already a really good roster, and you know they’re a team that can do a lot of damage. He makes them a different team because he’s shooting at a high level right now.”
Moore is averaging 10.0 points for the season while shooting 31.5% from three, but he doesn’t appear to be the same player he was before his injuries, at least not yet. What’s interesting is that while he’s been hot from three-point range over the last six games (16-of-31, 51.6%) he’s been mediocre on two-point shots over that same stretch (7-of-20, 35.0%) and only attempted three free throws. The old Justin Moore who used old-school Villanova bully ball to get position for good shots in the paint and to draw fouls is not there, reducing him to a jump-shooter. And while 51% on threes over a six-game span is amazing, that’s a very different player than Moore was pre-injury.
Sophomore Brendan Hausen leads them in three-point shooting at 41.3% (57-of-138), and has emerged as a much bigger offensive threat than he was in Omaha two months ago. McDermott pointed out that because of Hausen’s confidence shooting the ball, they’re running him off screens to create space for their offense. And combined with Moore’s recent streak, it makes them tougher to guard.
“They’re a hard guard,” McDermott said. “They’re elite at shots at the rim and they’re elite at three-point shots, and they don’t shoot much else. They’ve got a lot of guys that can beat you up at the rim and pretty much everybody on the floor can shoot a three so it really tests your defense. Our ability to guard Eric Dixon’s going to be really important.”
Ah, yes, Eric Dixon.
In the first meeting this year, he had 32 points on 12-of-21 shooting, including 4-of-10 from three-point range and 4-of-4 from the line. He scored from everywhere, and his ability to stretch the floor and hit tough threes pulled Creighton out of their base defense.
The 6’8″ senior scored 71 points in three games against Creighton a year ago, and in Villanova’s win in Philadelphia he was red hot — he had a then-career high 31 points on 11-of-15 shooting, including 6-of-8 from three-point range. He scored 20 in each of the other two.
Early in the game in Philadelphia a year ago, Ryan Kalkbrenner was positioned under the rim as Dixon hoisted three straight threes, all makes. Once Kalkbrenner started paying more respect to Dixon’s shot when he roamed out to the perimeter, it took him away from the rim — and then the Jays’ guards were abused on the pick-and-roll. The myriad of easy layups the Wildcats got were the direct result of Kalkbrenner being pulled away from the rim, and their guards being unable to stop the ball-handler from getting downhill off the dribble. And when they re-adjusted back to keep him near the rim, the Wildcats burned them on kick-outs to their other shooters.
Dixon has been Creighton’s kryptonite, without a doubt, the best version of the exact type of player who gives them the most trouble: a mobile big man who’s comfortable shooting midrange jumpers and threes.
“You have so many choices when you’re deciding how to guard them,” McDermott said. “Do you switch on screens? Get really aggressive with them and try to trap the ball handler and rotate on screens? Or do you do some gimmicky thing on the ball where you’re just giving a quick show and trying to get back? The problem with Villanova is sometimes when you switch stuff, now they find a matchup they like in the post and you don’t have rim protection back there because you’ve switched. We just have to get better at our base defense and be a little bit more active off the ball.”
McDermott told his team that the matchup with Villanova, and the game against a short-handed Marquette squad who played a five-out offense, comes at a good time.
“Chances are we’re going to see somebody like that at some point in the NCAA tournament,” he said. “We didn’t know what was going to happen against Marquette so we kind of had to adjust on the fly and some of the things we tried to do, our execution wasn’t great. I’m hopeful we can clean that up with three days of practice this week. But those kind of offenses take us away from what we’re really really good at defensively. It forces us to do something else. Hopefully we execute it better than we did against Nova the first time and certainly against Marquette (last weekend).”
As odd as it sounds, Creighton’s best option on Dixon might be to make him work hard defensively guarding Kalkbrenner — running with him in transition, chasing him through screens, and battling in the paint — and hoping that leaves him with a little less in the tank. All of that is easier said than done, because nobody in better at controlling tempo than Villanova. Only 14 teams in D1 play at a slower pace (with an adjusted tempo of 63.7), and no one in the Big East plays slower.
The pace Villanova forces everyone to play at magnifies mistakes — which is where a game like CU had in December with 16 turnovers is even more costly. As a raw number, 16 turnovers is a lot. In a game like that, it represented 21.6% of their possessions. Your margin for error is pretty slim when 1/5 of your possessions end without attempting a shot.
Off the court, the big news heading into the weekend is the contract extension for McDermott. Friday morning, the school announced a five-year extension with annual rollovers should McDermott decide to continue coaching past his 65th birthday. While nothing is ever certain in the world of coaching — plenty of coaches sign extensions only to turn around and leave anyway — it would surprise everyone if that happened with McDermott.
“There is no place I would rather be for the rest of my career than Creighton,” McDermott said in the announcement. “I am grateful to Father Hendrickson and Marcus Blossom for their ongoing confidence. My staff and I are fortunate to work with outstanding student-athletes and we will continue to create an environment that allows them to excel both on the court and in the classroom. We are proud to play in front of the best fans in the country and I am excited to build upon the positive trajectory of our program.”
“This extension recognizes Greg’s exceptional achievements as our head coach and the positive impact he has had on the culture of Creighton men’s basketball,” Athletic Director Marcus Blossom said in a statement. “Greg is one of the best coaches in college basketball and his continued leadership puts our program in the best possible position to continue to recruit top talent and compete for championships.”
So with that potential distraction behind them, and the best coach in program history locked up, Creighton and their fans can turn their focus back to making another run through March.
- Tip: 1:30pm
- Venue: Wells Fargo Arena, Philadelphia, PA
- TV: FOX / KPTM FOX 42
- Announcers: Kevin Kugler and Donny Marshall
- In Omaha: Cox channel 10 (SD), 1010 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 42 (SD), 1042 (HD); DirecTV 42; Dish Network 42 or 5203
- Outside Omaha: Your local FOX affiliate
- Streaming on FoxSportsGO
- Creighton Radio: 1620AM, 101.9FM
- Announcer: John Bishop
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- Simulcast on SiriusXM channel 161 or 201 as well as on the SiriusXM App
- Villanova has eight players averaging at least 6.5 points per contest, and all eight of those men have made at least 20 three-pointers
- Villanova is 3-1 at Wells Fargo Center this season with wins over Providence, Seton Hall, and UCLA. A 66-65 loss to then No. 1 UConn is its only blemish
- Seton Hall limited Villanova to 35 points over the final 30:12 Wednesday night at the Prudential Center, helping it to rally past the Wildcats 66-56. Nova is 16-4 this season when holding opponents below the 70-point threshold (.800)
- Creighton has beaten every other Big East team at least once this season, with the exception of Villanova.
- Creighton’s 13 league wins are one shy of tying a program record for most conference wins in any of its 11 seasons in the Big East. Three of CU’s five previous teams to win 12 or more Big East games reached the Big East Tournament final, with the prematurely cancelled 2019-20 campaign being one of the exceptions.
- Baylor Scheierman was named Big East Player of the Week and FOX Sports Army National Guard of the Week after helping Creighton to a pair of double-digit home wins last week. Scheierman averaged 23.0 points, 13.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.5 steals per game as Creighton posted wins over Seton Hall (85-64) and No. 5 Marquette (89-75). Scheierman made 14-of-28 shots from the floor, including 12-of-22 three-pointers, and was also perfect in six free throw attempts.
Villanova leads the all-time series with Creighton, 19-8, including an 11-2 mark in Pennsylvania. Seven of the last 10 meetings at all sites have been decided by double-figures. The Wildcats escaped with an overtime triumph in Omaha in December to start league play for both squads.
Last March 9, Creighton blew out Villanova 87-74 in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament, leading wire-to-wire by as many as 20 points. Ryan Kalkbrenner had 21 points on 9-of-12 shooting, including six in the critical final minutes when the teams were trading punches. His defense on Dixon when the game was in the balance was huge — before a late flurry of baskets when the deficit was as many as 20 points, Dixon was a non-factor.
Baylor Scheierman did a bit of everything — his line of 12 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists left him just shy of the first point/rebound/assist triple-double in the history of CU basketball (a record he’d finally get earlier this season). He, too, made big plays when it mattered most, with assists both on Kalkbrenner’s second three-point play and on Arthur Kaluma’s game-sealing dunk.
The Bottom Line:
KenPom predicts a one-point Bluejay win, and ESPN’s BPI gives Creighton 52.7% odds of victory. It does feel like a tossup, given the stakes for Villanova — it’s a do-or-die situation for them. Two weeks ago when CU last faced a team in that situation, St. John’s, they didn’t fare well. I think they’ll flip the script this time.
Creighton 67, Villanova 64