Greg McDermott has built two Final Four caliber teams in four years consisting of entirely different players each time, and both potentially have been ended not by a loss in March but by an injury before they got that far. What in the world did Mac and Bluejay fans do to deserve this fate?
They’ve seen promising seasons derailed by injuries to key starters in three of the last four seasons: Maurice Watson in 2016-17, Martin Krampelj in 2017-18, and now Marcus Zegarowski in 2019-20. And the devastating injuries go back longer than that, really. Tyler McKinney’s eye injury in 2003-04. Nate Funk’s shoulder in 2005-06. Josh Doztler’s knee in 2006-07. Josh Jones’ heart condition ending his career in 2012-13. Grant Gibbs and Ethan Wragge gutting it out but at significantly less than 100% by the second round of the 2014 NCAA’s. Every team deals with catastrophic injuries, yes, but Creighton seems to have had more than their fair share.
There is a sliver of hope for this current batch of Bluejays, in that Zegarowski’s meniscus injury does not necessarily rule him out for the season. He had arthroscopic surgery on it Wednesday in New York. The official line is they are “optimistic” he could play at some point next week — if their ‘3’ seed holds they might not need him in their first round game to advance, but having him on the floor for a second round battle would be enormous.
And while meniscus injuries are notoriously unpredictable in terms of recovery timetables, it would not be surprising in the least to see Zegarowski back on the floor next weekend. Remember, he played his entire freshman season with a hip injury that most other players would have been sidelined with. Then he broke his hand, missed a couple of games, and came back to play through that as well. He was at somewhere near 60% of his healthy self through most of February and March a year ago, playing through immense pain, and still plenty effective. He likely won’t be the “SuperMarcus” that the entire country saw on Saturday afternoon, but Zegarowski at 60% might still be good enough to pilot a ship full of talented players to destinations the program hasn’t seen in decades. It at least gives them better odds.
But that’s next week. For now, he’s out of the Big East Tournament, for however long Creighton lasts. But with a regular season Big East championship and a sparkling resume, Creighton’s season is not about this weekend in NYC — it’s about next week, in the NCAA Tournament. Having him on the floor, in any capacity, is the goal. And if he can’t go? Keeping up the appearance that he *might* is pretty important, too. Remember Kansas State in 2017? They continually told everyone, from the selection committee to the media, that they were planning on injured Dean Wade playing. And so they weren’t dropped a seed line or two, and Creighton had to devote a ton of their precious prep time to a player KSU was pretty sure wasn’t going to play. Then he missed the entire first weekend, and returned for their Sweet 16 game. Regardless of what’s actually going on, expect the official line from the Hilltop to remain “Zegarowski could play next week.”
Without him, for however long he’s out, Creighton seems likely to shift Big East Sixth Man of the Year Denzel Mahoney into the starting lineup. Ty-Shon Alexander probably becomes the primary ball handler, moving back into a role he played briefly last year when Zegarowski missed time with his broken hand. Mitch Ballock, Damien Jefferson and Christian Bishop’s roles stay similar to what they were. Shereef Mitchell gets more minutes, but probably not right away — the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden eats freshmen alive. You might see Kelvin Jones and Bishop on the floor together. You might see Jett Canfield getting minutes before the game is decided. You will see lineup combinations you’ve never seen before. It might be a mess at times.
They’ll be different, but counting them out in NYC would be a mistake. This group has never won a game at the Big East Tournament, and has tge scars from losing in heartbreaking fashion. Ballock had the chance to tie the game in overtime two years ago, but his three-pointer from the wing was short. The Jays lost 72-68 to Providence. Alexander had his chance last year, and missed a three-pointer at the buzzer that would have given the Jays a win. Instead they lost 63-61 to Xavier.
You can be damn sure the Jays’ Big Two remember it, too.
“You know, it actually came back as a playback memory on my YouTube the other day — both games,” Alexander told the Omaha World-Herald’s Jon Nyatawa for a story on Wednesday. “And after seeing those games, I was thinking to myself, ‘I don’t want to go through that again.’ We’re going to go in there and play our hearts out.”
Despite their #1 seed, their half of the bracket is unkind, even if they were fully healthy. Four of their five conference losses came to Georgetown, St. John’s, Providence, and Butler — their four potential opponents before the finals.
Thursday morning’s quarterfinal opponent is St. John’s. The Red Storm picked up their 17th win of the season Wednesday night, defeating the Hoyas to advance with a monumental 23-0 run to end the game. Georgetown had led 62-50, and NEVER SCORED AGAIN. The Johnnies pressure defense ratcheted up higher and higher, the threes rained over and over, and the NYC crowd at MSG loved it.
They’re a trendy darkhorse pick to win the tourney, especially with the way the bracket shaped up for them — beating a depleted Georgetown team in the opener, facing #1 Creighton without Zegarowski, and if they manage to get past the Jays, either a struggling Butler team or a Providence team they beat once and nearly beat twice is waiting in the semis.
It’s easy to understand. St. John’s was a handful for the Jays at full strength, and the thought of their full court press against a Bluejay team without their primary ball handler is not a good one. But late Wednesday night, the Big East followed the lead of the NCAA and other power conference leagues around the country by announcing the remainder of the tournament will happen without the general public in attendance as the threat of COVID-19 becomes more and more real.
If that helps anyone, it’s probably Creighton. But at the end of the day, the Jays won in Omaha largely because they were 13-of-28 on threes; when they shot 4-of-27 in the rematch, they got beat. That’s because in two games, Creighton never really figured out a way to slow St. John’s down defensively — they scored 173 total points, and made 25-of-53 (47.2%) of their three pointers. And while six different players averaged double-figures in scoring it was different players from outside their top performers that torched them in Omaha versus in Queens. That makes game planning for the third match a bit trickier. Earlington was unstoppable in Omaha, shooting 10-for-17 with 25 points. He had four in the rematch, but Greg Williams had 21 on 7-of-10 from three-point range.
Neither player is near the top of opponent’s scouting reports; LJ Figueroa tops the Red Storm with 14.3 points per game, as well as 61 steals in 31 games played. Rasheem Dunn (12.0 ppg.), and Julian Champagnie (10.0 ppg., 6.5 rpg.) also score in double figures. They have rim protection — Josh Roberts had 44 blocks during the season. They have size and length and love to press.
They’re a handful, and the Jays will have to shoot well to win. Crowd or no crowd.
- Tip: 11:00am Omaha time
- Venue: Madison Square Garden, NYCNY
- TV: FS1
- Announcers: Tim Brando, Jim Jackson
- In Omaha: Cox channel 78 (SD), 1078 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 620 (SD), 1620 (HD)
- Outside Omaha: FS1 Channel Finder
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 219, Dish Network channel 150
- Streaming on FoxSportsGO
- Radio: 1620AM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Nick Bahe
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- For Cord Cutters
- Creighton has never been a No. 1 seed at the Big East Tournament, but is 11-1 in program history as the top seed in a conference tournament. All of those appearances came as a member of the Missouri Valley Conference. Creighton made five appearances as the top seed in the MVC Tournament and wound up with four titles.
- Creighton has won 12 of its last 14 conference tournament games decided by four points or less, but the two losses came each of the last two years.
- Denzel Mahoney was named the Big East’s Sixth Man of the Year, Greg McDermott was named Big East Coach of the Year, Ty-Shon Alexander was first team All-Big East, and Marcus Zegarowski was second team All-Big East in awards announced this week.
Creighton is 11-10 all-time against St. John’s, and 9-5 in the rivalry since joining the Big East. The teams have never met in the Big East Tournament.
FiveThirtyEight.com published a piece entitled “Creighton Usually Wins With Offense. This Year, It Has A Defense Too.” From an analytical perspective, it’s a must-read look at what Creighton’s doing differently — and how.
The Bottom Line:
Creighton starts a little slow without the engine that runs their machine, but they find a way to advance in front of a hauntingly quiet MSG.
Bluejays 72, Red Storm 65