Revisiting Our Preseason Predictions

Preseason predictions can be fun…if you’re not the one making them. Its tough, even for people who watch as much college hoops as us at White & Blue Review, to anticipate who’s going to finish where. What’s even more fun is to go back and look at those preseason predictions with the knowledge of hindsight.

With that in mind, at the halfway point of the Valley slate, lets revisit our preseason predictions and see how we did.

Wichita State, who we picked to win the league, sits tied for second at 7-2 after losing to both Missouri State and Northern Iowa. They’ve been a formidable team, however, leading the MVC in points per game, assists, rebounds and field goal percentage, while giving up the fewest points, the fewest rebounds, and holding opponents to the lowest field goal percentage. And their two losses have been by a combined six points — losing by three both times. Unfortunately for the Shockers, their schedule is pretty tough down the stretch, with road games at the two teams who’ve beaten them in Wichita, as well as a road game at Indiana State, two games with Southern Illinois, and a home game with Creighton. The Shox are still in the hunt, but they’re going to have to both play well against a tough slate and get some help if they’re to win the league.

Creighton, who we picked to finish second, has scuffled (obviously). But before you write them off at 5-4 in the league, consider their remaining schedule. They have home games with Indiana State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Illinois State, and Evansville remaining — and should win all five. They play at Drake and Bradley, and should win both of those games. They play at Northern Iowa, which is a tossup. And they play at Wichita State, where they will likely lose. If that goes as you’d expect, they’re either 12-6 or 13-5 at the end of conference play and in position to finish third or, depending on how things break, second as we predicted.

Missouri State was picked to finish third by our writers, and they’ve exceeded those expectations thanks to road wins against three of the top teams in the league — winning at Wichita State, at Creighton, and at Northern Iowa. Their only loss? A one-point heartbreaker at Indiana State. At 8-1 in the league, and with the toughest part of their schedule over, the league is theirs to lose. Home games with Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Indiana State, Drake and Bradley remain; their road games are at Illinois State, at Evansville, at Drake, and at Southern Illinois. A 15-3 or 16-2 record seems entirely possible at this point, and with an RPI of 36, they could set themselves up for a possible at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament should they fail in St. Louis. Of course, this is Missouri State we’re talking about, so they’re just as likely to run the table, get an RPI in the high teens, and then get shut out of the tournament as Cuonzo Martin channels his inner Barry Hinson by crying on the Selection Show.

Northern Iowa, fourth in our preseason poll, sits in fourth at 6-3 but is making their move, winning five straight games. A ghastly 70-45 loss to Indiana State aside, the Panthers have played Panther Ball in almost every other game — winning by any means necessary, sometimes in ugly fashion (46-44 over Illinois State), sometimes in shootouts (83-77 over Bradley, 77-74 over Wichita State). Their schedule in the second half is favorable to continue making a run. They should win at least three of their final five road games (at Drake, at Bradley, at Evansville, at Creighton, at Missouri State) and will be favored in all but perhaps one of their home games (Wichita State, Creighton, Indiana State, Illinois State).

Bradley, who we picked fifth and were ridiculed by Brave fans for being too pessimistic, is 0-9 in the league and dead last. They’ve been decimated by injury, losing point guard Sam Maniscalco and top scoring threat Taylor Brown for the season before league play began, and have had a brutal go of things. It doesn’t get any better, as the second half of their slate includes road trips to Springfield, Wichita, and Carbondale — and home dates with Creighton and Northern Iowa. 0-18 is probably not going to happen with two games against the 1-8 Illinois State Redbirds still to come, but a nightmarish 1-17 or 2-16 finish for this proud program is eminently possible.

Drake, picked sixth in the WBR Poll, has disappointed at 3-6 in the league, failing to win a single game away from the Knapp Center, and sitting alone in seventh place. The Bulldogs are last or second-to-last in the MVC in almost every team category, including points, assists, rebounds, field goal percentage, points allowed, rebounds allowed, and opponent field goal percentage. Things don’t figure to get any easier for Mark Phelps’ team, as they have yet to play Missouri State — and have road trips to Southern Illinois and Indiana State still to come, as well as home games with Northern Iowa and Creighton. At this point, the only thing keeping them from finishing lower is how bad the bottom two teams are.

Southern Illinois, who we figured to finish seventh and once again be in the play-in game, is tied for sixth place — but at 4-5, is just a game out of fourth place. However, their second-half schedule is the toughest in the MVC: two games with Wichita State, two games with Indiana State, a home game against Missouri State and a road trip to Creighton. Ouch. Good luck with that, Salukis.

Illinois State, picked eighth, is instead ninth, at 1-8 in the league. They got their first league win Sunday night on ESPNU against Southern Illinois, but they’re going to be playing Thursday night in St. Louis.

Indiana State was picked ninth in the WBR Poll, which looks like a hilarious misprint now. The Trees are 7-2 overall, and own home wins over Missouri State and Creighton. Their road gets pretty tough on the backside of the schedule, however; road games with Creighton, Missouri State and Northern Iowa remain, while home dates with Wichita State and two games against Southern Illinois are on the second half slate. They may not catch the Bears for first place, but second place seems pretty possible — and considering almost everyone, not just us, had them safely in the Thursday play-in round group of teams, that’s remarkable stuff.

And finally, Evansville, who we picked to finish last, has played relatively well and is 4-5 overall, tied with Southern Illinois for sixth place. Good for them.

What about individual players? Here’s what our First Team All-MVC selections looked like:

Toure’ Murry, Wichita State*
Sam Maniscalco, Bradley
Kwadzo Ahelegbe, Northern Iowa
Kyle Weems, Missouri State
Kenny Lawson Jr., Creighton

*Player of the Year

Murry has played pretty well, averaging 10 points, 3.45 assists and 5 rebounds a game, but the only category in which he’s in the Top 10 in the MVC is assists, where he’s fourth. If Wichita continues playing well, he’s probably still a first-team selection. Probably. But there’s very little chance he wins POY honors.

Maniscalco suffered a foot injury midway through the non-conference slate and is taking a medical redshirt. In his place, a handful of guards that are having outstanding years are in contention for first team honors. Among them is Missouri State’s Jermaine Mallett, who’s averaging 11.3 points, 2.75 assists, 5.25 rebounds a game while shooting almost 50% from the floor (48.7%). Dwayne Lathan of Indiana State is also having a great year, leading the Sycamores resurgence with 12.3 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists a night. Andrew Warren, despite playing for a last place team, is leading the league in scoring at 18.75 a game, with 5.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals, and is putting up such huge numbers it may be tough for voters to dismiss him even though the Braves are struggling. Closer to home, Antoine Young has been outstanding, averaging 12.7 points, 4.5 assists, and 3 rebounds in almost 37 minutes a game while once again leading the MVC in assist-to-turnover ratio.

Kwadzo Ahelegbe of Northern Iowa has turned in an outstanding senior season so far, averaging 12.8 points, 2.6 assists and 2.8 rebounds a night while turning it over the fourth fewest times in the MVC. His spot on the first team will be challenged by the three players above, and perhaps others.

Kenny Lawson might be the biggest disappointment in the MVC to this point. The preseason Player of the Year, he’s now been relegated to coming off the bench, and three times in nine MVC games he’s grabbed two or fewer rebounds — an astonishing total for a big man who averaged nearly seven boards a game last year. That opens the door for his teammate, Doug McDermott, who could get a first-team nod. As a freshman, McDermott is averaging nearly 13 points and 7 rebounds, and in MVC play has recorded three double-doubles, and come close in two others.

Kyle Weems, the outstanding forward/center for Missouri State, is the runaway candidate for Player of the Year through nine games. Second in the league with 16.2 points a game, he’s also fifth in the league with 7 rebounds a night, fifth in blocks, and is the best player on the best team.

For Newcomer of the Year, we chose Gregory Echenique before the season, and while he’s had a pretty good debut, its his teammate Doug McDermott who appears a lock for the award. He’s won “Newcomer of the Week” a record six times, after all.

And while we did not choose a preseason Coach of the Year, if we had, its safe to say Greg Lansing would not have been the pick. For what he’s done with the Sycamores this year, he’s the odds-on favorite to take home that award, you’d have to believe.

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As with all preseason predictions, on some we were wildly wrong, and on some, we came pretty close. We’d love to hear how your predictions have gone, so far, in the comments below. Has the season gone as you expected? What’s surprised you the most? Who do you think will win the league? Who gets first-team All MVC honors? Let us know!