The Bracketeer is a new contributor to White & Blue Review, but a familiar face. The Bracketeer made his first appearance on Patrick Marshall’s old blog back in 2009. After long hiatus, The Bracketeer has returned.
After a couple of years on the bracket projection sidelines, “The Bracketeer” is back for more guesses as to how the field of 68 will shake out 62 days from now.
A few guidelines for everyone looking at the bracket and how I came to my projections (thru games of January 11):
- I tried to seed teams as if it were actually Selection Sunday. So some teams may seem a bit high or a bit low compared to what others have presently. However, based on the numbers to date, that’s where I believe they would be seeded when you factor in SOS, Top-50 wins, Top-100 wins, etc. With most teams still having half of their regular season games remaining, there are a lot of “incomplete” resumes this early in the process.
- Since we are early in the process, there will be some teams that appear in the bracket that have below .500 records in their conference. Although the common thought that below .500 in your league = no at-large bid, since 2000, 10 such teams (all from “power” conferences) have received an at-large nod. Most conferences are only a handful of games into league play – so some teams with sub-.500 league records will be in the field of 68, presently.
- As the NCAA selection committee is supposed to do, I attempted to avoid match-ups that would involve rematches from this season and teams from the same conference potentially playing each other (generally until the Sweet 16). Also, teams cannot play in their home arena (e.g., Creighton can’t play in the “Omaha Region”, Louisville can’t play in the “Louisville Region”, Dayton can’t play at the “Dayton First Four site”). If necessary, the committee in the past has allowed for a “one-seed” movement from a team’s “true” seed to help in putting together the bracket.
- I’ve used information from the various RPI/efficiency sites out there in compiling my somewhat educated guesses but will mostly site RPI and KenPom.
- Below the bracket, I’ve also listed the “Last Four In”, “First Four Out” and “Next Four Out”. I’ve also done a brief capsule on each multi-bid conference.
Now for the bracket projection (January 12)…
LAST FOUR IN: Georgia, Tulsa, Syracuse, Ohio State
FIRST FOUR OUT: Indiana, Mississippi, Texas A&M, Massachusetts
NEXT FOUR OUT: Wyoming, Davidson, Rhode Island, Iowa
MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES: ACC (7), Big East (7), Big 12 (7), American (5), SEC (5), Big Ten (4), Atlantic 10 (3), Pac-12 (3), MVC (2), MWC (2), WCC (2)
Next bracket projection: Monday, January 19
Conference Capsules
American Athletic Conference
When I put pen to paper for this year’s first version of the bracket, I did not think this was a 5-bid league. But lo and behold, Cincinnati, SMU, Temple, Tulsa and Connecticut all made their way into the projected NCAA field. Overall, I’m still not very bullish on the AAC as a whole – as the 5 teams above are a combined 7-14 vs. the RPI top 50. This more likely figures to be a 3- or 4-bid league at best when March rolls around…
Atlantic Coast Conference
Although they stumbled against N.C. State yesterday, Duke is still solidly in place as one of the four top-seeds. Conference mate Virginia should also feel pretty good about hearing their name as a #1-seed if the season ended today. North Carolina appears to be on solid ground for its 10th NCAA bid in the last 11 seasons as the computers like the Tar Heels (RPI: 13, KenPom: 9). Notre Dame certainly passes the “eye test”, but the usual menu of cupcakes on the Fighting Irish non-league schedule (9 wins vs. RPI 180+ teams) has its RPI (48) in need of some assistance. Mike Brey’s squad is safely into the field at this point, but you wonder how it may affect the Irish’s seed. Syracuse didn’t do much in the non-conference portion of its schedule (best win was vs Iowa in the 2K Sports Classic). However, a 3-0 start in ACC play (albeit against 3 of the weaker teams in the conference) has the Orange currently in one of the “First Four” games at Dayton.
Atlantic 10 Conference
With the A-10 being the 7th ranked RPI conference, it will be difficult for VCU to maintain its lofty computer numbers (RPI: 4, SOS: 2) as only two of its next eight games are against sub-RPI 100 competition. Give the Rams credit, though, as they went out and played a solid non-league slate (Virginia, Villanova, Northern Iowa, Old Dominion, Cincinnati) that should have it in position for a top-4 seed nine weeks from now.
Big East Conference
Could seven teams really make the Big Dance out of the remade Big East? If the season ended today, there would be five no-doubters (Villanova, Seton Hall, Butler, Providence and Xavier). St. John’s and Georgetown have both had their moments of looking like NCAA teams, but the reality is they are a combined 1-9 vs. the RPI top 50. Since most resumes are incomplete at this point, based on computer numbers alone I have both the Red Storm and Hoyas into the field of 68. However, unless they can find some top 50 wins, both teams will likely be sweating out Selection Sunday at their current pace.
Big Ten Conference
As the No. 5 RPI league, this is as down as the Big Ten has been since the 2009-10 season. In fact, the B1G has been the #1-RPI Conference each of the last three seasons. Wisconsin is certainly the team to beat this year (even with the head-scratching loss they had at Rutgers over the weekend). Everyone else in the Big Ten, with the exception of Maryland, seems to still be figuring things out. Now that league play has started and the conference only has three RPI top 50 teams (the two mentioned above as well as Michigan State), perceived quality wins are going to difficult to come by.
Big 12 Conference
The Big 12 and Big East are mirror images of each other this season as both leagues have been either #1 or #2 in conference RPI depending on the day. They are also similar in that each league has a well-defined divide of seven solid teams and three lower-tier teams this season. In the end, Kansas may be the only Big 12 team to gain a top 4-seed when March rolls around as the other six Big 12, NCAA caliber, teams figure to beat up on each other over the next two months.
Missouri Valley Conference
Wichita State has put together another solid resume and should have a very good shot at securing another top 4-seed. However, the Shockers will get a strong challenge from Northern Iowa – which is having its best season since Ali Farokhmanesh became a household name of March Madness lore.
Mountain West Conference
As I mentioned prior to the listing of the bracket, there are a lot of incomplete resumes at this point of the selection process. Colorado State is a prime example of what I’m talking about. The Rams have an impressive overall record of 14-2 and a solid RPI of 20. KenPom, however, is not impressed by CSU’s results as they are ranked 82nd in his system. No matter which metric you use, Colorado State has yet to even play a game against a top 50 opponent! I certainly need to see more of this team to get a better gauge as to where they belong come March.
Pac 12 Conference
Arizona and Utah appear to be the two best squads this league has to offer. Stanford had a head-scratching loss at DePaul (which is still a bad loss, but as those that follow the Big East know, the Blue Demons have been playing much better recently) as the only negative mark on an otherwise solid resume. As of now, those appear to be the only three NCAA-worthy squads. Washington appeared to be on course for an NCAA bid until losing four straight – including home losses to Stony Brook and in-state rival (as well as league doormat) Washington State.
Southeastern Conference
Even with the two scares Kentucky had last week against Mississippi and Texas A&M, they are clearly the #1-overall seed. If you haven’t seen Arkansas play yet, you should. They are a fun team to watch that has already established itself as the 2nd best team in the SEC this season. Many SEC teams, as is the case in most college basketball season’s, are heading straight for “The Bubble”. LSU, Georgia and Alabama fans will be in for an interesting ride over the next two months as all of these teams figure to do enough to hang around for NCAA tourney consideration yet not do enough to where they can count on hearing their name called on Selection Sunday.
West Coast Conference
This might be the best Gonzaga team that Mark Few has ever fielded. The Bulldogs are an early Final Four sleeper by many experts. Having seen GU in person a couple of times this season, I would not argue with anyone who had that opinion.
The One-Bid Leagues
The following conferences (21 of them), pretty much no matter how you dissect it, will provide only one team to the 2015 NCAA Tournament… A top 5 of “could get an at-large if they don’t get the league automatic bid” would be – Old Dominion (C-USA), Wofford (SoCon), Buffalo (MAC), Harvard (Ivy League) and Long Beach State (Big West)…
America East – Albany
Atlantic Sun – Florida Gulf Coast
Big South – Coastal Carolina
Big Sky – Eastern Washington
Big West – Long Beach State
Colonial – Hofstra
Conference USA – Old Dominion
Horizon – Green Bay
Ivy league – Harvard
MAC – Buffalo
MAAC – Iona
MEAC – North Carolina Central
Northeast – St. Francis (PA)
Ohio Valley – Eastern Illinois
Patriot – Boston
Southern – Wofford
Southland – Sam Houston State
Summit – North Dakota State
Sun Belt – Louisiana
SWAC – Texas Southern
WAC – New Mexico State
Thanks for reading. The next edition of “The Bracketeer” will run on Monday, January 19…