A few guidelines for everyone looking at the bracket and how I came to my projections (thru games of March 6):
- I tried to seed teams as if it were actually Selection Sunday. So some teams may seem a bit high or a bit low compared to what others have presently. However, based on the numbers to date, that’s where I believe they would be seeded when you factor in SOS, Top-50 wins, Top-100 wins, etc. With most teams still having half of their regular season games remaining, there are a lot of “incomplete” resumes this early in the process.
- As the NCAA selection committee is supposed to do, I attempted to avoid match-ups that would involve rematches from this season and teams from the same conference potentially playing each other (generally until the Sweet 16). Also, teams cannot play in their home arena (e.g., Providence can’t play in the “Providence” site) or if they are the host institution (e.g, Iowa State can’t play in the “Des Moines” site). If necessary, the committee in the past has allowed for a “one-seed” movement from a team’s “true” seed to help in putting together the bracket.
- I’ve used information from the various RPI/efficiency sites out there in compiling my somewhat educated guesses but will mostly site RPI, KenPom and RPI Forecast.
- Below the bracket, I’ve also listed the “Last Four In”, “First Four Out” and “Next Four Out”.
Now for the bracket projection (March 7)…
LAST FOUR IN: Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Florida
FIRST FOUR OUT: Connecticut, Tulsa, Michigan, George Washington
NEXT FOUR OUT: Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, LSU, Washington
MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES: ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), SEC (5), Atlantic 10 (4), American (2), MVC (2)
Next bracket projection: Sunday, March 13
5 Things About This Week’s Projection
1) The Cincinnati (current projection of “last four in”)/Connecticut (current projection of “first four out”) matchup in the quarterfinals of the American Conference Tournament is essentially an elimination game. The loser is likely NIT bound and the winner likely punching their ticket to the Big Dance. You could also say the same for the Pittsburgh/Syracuse tilt in the 2nd round of the ACC Tourney – as both of these teams are among my last 4 teams projected in.
2) When I initially saw that Wichita State lost in the Missouri Valley Conference semifinals, I smiled. I then re-looked at the Shockers tournament résumé. At first glance, it’s not good. WSU has just 4 wins vs the RPI top 100 among its 23 Division I victories. Sadly, I do have good news for Shocker fans. The Selection Committee has shown in the past they will do a couple of things:
- They will reward regular season conference champions with an at-large bid…
Even though the MVC was mostly awful, Wichita State was the runaway winner of the league regular season crown. At 16-2, WSU finished four games ahead of both Evansville and Illinois State.
- They will give you credit for a star player missing games…
Back in November, Wichita State was without guard Fred Van Vleet for 4 games. One of those was an easy win over Emporia State. The other three were at Walt Disney World – where the Shockers lost to USC, Alabama and Iowa. Two of those three teams are safely into the field of 68 (Iowa and USC), while Alabama had been on the “bubble” until losing 4 of its last 5 games.
- The “eye test”…
Ah, the eye test… As much as it really disgusts me to type this, the Shockers pass the “eye test” with flying colors compared to most of the at-large bubble teams.
In my projected field, in spite of what my blue-tinted glasses would like me to do, I currently have WSU as fairly safely in as a 10-seed. Would it “Shock” me to see WSU as part of the “last four in” – not at all. A bigger surprise, though, would be not seeing Wichita State as one of the 36 at-large teams six days from now.
3) Everyone seems to say it at this time of year that the “bubble” is soft. Instead of just saying it’s soft, I like to back up my weak “bubble” talk with numbers. From last week’s projection, my “First Four out” and “Next Four out” went a combined 5-9 over the last 7 days. No team had a 2-0 week, and only one went undefeated (Tulsa, 1-0 – moving them from NF out to FF out).
4) Big East bubble teams did themselves a favor by posting 2-0 weeks. Providence and Butler likely cemented at-large nods. The worst-case scenario for the Friars and Bulldogs matchup in the 4 vs 5 game at the Big East Tournament is that the loser could end up as one of the last four in. Based on my current projections (PC as an #8 and BU as a #9), a lot of things would have to happen for that much of a drop in seed. As for the other Big East teams likely to hear their names called on Selection Sunday.
Villanova – Likely has a #1-seed wrapped up already. Avoiding a quarterfinal loss would cement a #1-seed.
Xavier – A #2-seed appears to be in the offing for the Musketeers. A quarterfinal exit could see XU drop to a #3-seed. If the Musketeers were to win the Big East Tourney, they would need quite a bit of help to get to that #1-seed line (Michigan State not winning Big Ten Tourney, Oregon not winning Pac-12 Tourney, Virginia and North Carolina not winning ACC Tourney, Oklahoma not winning Big 12 Tourney)
Seton Hall – I think the Pirates have the most to gain or lose, seed-wise. Seton Hall is currently projected as a #7-seed in my bracket. Take home the Big East Tourney trophy, and that could rise to a #5 – maybe even an outside chance at a #4 if they had to go through both Xavier and Villanova. Lose in their opener to Creighton, and they will be staring an #8/#9 game right in the face – rarely a good spot, historically, to advance to the Sweet 16.
5) As much as we’d all like to see our Jays cut down the nets at Madison Square Garden on Saturday night to secure the Big East’s automatic bid, no matter how it turns out remember this…
This is the absolute best time of year for college hoop junkies like myself and many others who are reading this synopsis. Enjoy it!! Enjoy the competition. Enjoy the drama. Enjoy the buzzer-beaters. Just enjoy it all!!
Thanks for reading. The next edition of “The Bracketeer” will run on Sunday, March 13…
