A few guidelines for everyone looking at the bracket and how I came to my projections (thru games of March 8):
- I tried to seed teams as if it were actually Selection Sunday. So some teams may seem a bit high or a bit low compared to what others have presently. However, based on the numbers to date, that’s where I believe they would be seeded when you factor in SOS, Top-50 wins, Top-100 wins, etc.
- Although the common thought that below .500 in your league = no at-large bid, since 2000, 10 such teams (all from “power” conferences) have received an at-large nod.
- As the NCAA selection committee is supposed to do, I attempted to avoid match-ups that would involve rematches from this season and teams from the same conference potentially playing each other (generally until the Sweet 16). Also, teams cannot play in their home arena (e.g., Creighton can’t play in the “Omaha Region”, Louisville can’t play in the “Louisville Region”). If necessary, the committee in the past has allowed for a “one-seed” movement from a team’s “true” seed to help in putting together the bracket.
- I’ve used information from the various RPI/efficiency sites out there in compiling my somewhat educated guesses but will mostly site RPI and KenPom.
- Below the bracket, I’ve also listed the “Last Four In”, “First Four Out” and “Next Four Out”. I’ve also done a brief capsule on each multi-bid conference.
Now for the bracket projection (March 9)…
LAST FOUR IN: Temple, Davidson, BYU, Indiana
FIRST FOUR OUT: Illinois, Richmond, Tulsa, UCLA
NEXT FOUR OUT: Stanford, Texas, Miami (FL), Old Dominion
MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES: Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big 12 (6), Big East (6), SEC (6), American (3), Atlantic 10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-12 (3), MVC (2), WCC (2)
5 Things About This Bracket Projection
1. The Atlantic 10 could end up with four teams in the NCAA tournament without any one of them being higher than a 9-seed. VCU has the overall résumé of a 5- or 6-seed. However, the Rams are just 5-6 since star guard Briante Weber went down with a season-ending injury. I have VCU as an “8” in this week’s projection but could easily see them, along with conference-mate Dayton (who I also have as an 8-seed), end up as “9’s”. I also have Davidson as one of my last four teams into the field. Although I currently have Richmond in my “first four out”, the Spiders have built momentum over the past three weeks (6 straight wins) and are 3-5 vs. the RPI top 50 – which is very comparable to other “bubble” teams.
2. I think that Louisville, Notre Dame and North Carolina all grade out as true 4-seeds. However, with Duke and Virginia, both likely 1-seeds, something’s got to give as the selection committee will try to avoid any same conference match-ups until after the Sweet Sixteen. In this projection, I moved North Carolina up to a 3-seed (despite its loss to Duke) based mostly on their #2 strength of schedule. I think this year, more than any in the last five years, is where you’ll see conference tournaments play a big role in where teams end up being seeded compared to the amount of teams that have a chance to play their way into the NCAA field.
3. Although I believe Oregon and Georgia should feel good about its at-large chances, the Ducks and Bulldogs are a combined 1-8 vs. RPI top 50 teams (UO 1-3, UGA 0-5). Oregon certainly helped its overall profile by tying Utah for 2nd during the Pac-12 regular season. Two losses to Kentucky certainly don’t hurt your résumé this season. However, Georgia passed the “eye test” in its competitive setbacks to the Wildcats. The Bulldogs do have three wins that are on the cusp of being viewed as positives in the selection committee’s eyes (2x vs. Ole Miss, Texas A&M).
4. Sometimes at this time of year, you just need a win to get back on track. Below are four teams that have been part of the bracket projection discussion over the past two months that have struggled down the stretch. Wins in these games certainly aren’t résumé builders, but they can help avoid an NIT invite on Sunday night.
Four teams that could really use a win to start out their conference tournament:
- Indiana (vs. Northwestern)
- Tulsa (vs. Tulane or Houston)
- Stanford (vs. Washington)
- Texas A&M (vs. Mississippi State or Auburn)
5. Of the teams listed in my “first four out”, Illinois has the best chance for a résumé enhancing win in its conference tourney. If the Illini can get past Michigan in its 8/9 game, they get the chance to play Wisconsin at what will be a pro-Illini crowd at the United Center. A win of that stature could be enough to get them onto the right side of the “bubble” (BYU winning at Gonzaga, for example). With a quarterfinal win in the Pac-12 tourney, UCLA could also get a chance at that type of win should Arizona advance through its opener.
Thanks for reading. The next edition of “The Bracketeer” will run on Thursday, March 12…