Remember when Mitch Holthus, “The Voice of the Valley”, used to open FSN telecasts by calling the Valley “America’s Premier Non-BCS Conference”? It was true when he said it, and it wasn’t that long ago. Thanks to talking heads on certain cable outlets (*cough* ESPN *cough*) the national perception of the league has changed a lot from those days, unfortunately, from a league that had positioned itself to be the best of the non-BCSers to just another mid-major conference.
Like everything in public relations, the best way to perform damage control is to manage the things you can control, and deflect attention away from that which you cannot. The MVC, its coaches and its fans cannot control the verbal diarrhea that various on-air personalities spew forth on cable TV. What is in their control is taking care of business in marquee games, particularly in postseason.
When MVC teams were routinely making Sweet 16 runs, all the slings and arrows in the national media’s considerable arsenal were deflected away by on-court success. Bradley, Southern Illinois, Wichita State, and even without a Sweet 16 run, Creighton, were proof that there was good basketball being played in the Valley.
Taking Care of Business is the only real weapon against pundits who look down on the brand of ball played in leagues such as the MVC. And with two consecutive seasons of single-bids and no wins in the Big Dance, the MVC has temporarily lost the ability to deflect the negativity hammered home by national media.
Indeed, they’re at it again, positing the Valley in 2009-10 as a conference headed for a third consecutive year as a one-bid league. Here’s their argument, in a nice one-sentance elevator speech: The MVC is a bad league whose best teams are flawed.
Delving deeper: Northern Iowa had a nice stretch but was inconsistent. Creighton isn’t physical enough. Illinois State can’t overcome the loss of Champ Oguchi. You’ve heard it all. I think they’re wrong. I think the MVC will be a two-bid league come March, with another two making the NIT. Its certainly not the halcyon days of 2006, but it ain’t chopped liver either. Over the next two days, I’ll preview the league, team by team.
Today, we start with the teams who will appear in the Thursday play-in round of Arch Madness. Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you, the Rick Johnson Memorial All-Stars!
TEN // Evansville
Evansville accomplished something remarkable last year when they managed to not drag down the rest of the conference with their abysmally low RPI. For five years before last season, the Purple Aces average RPI was a robust 205, including two years ago when they clocked a 252 with a team that made everyone worse for having played them.
With a veteran team, coach Marty Simmons guided them to an impressive turnaround — finishing at 17-14 (8-10 MVC), and earning a bid to the postseason CollegeInsider.com tournament. The Aces were a tough, competitive team all season long, and had a couple of close losses gone their way, who knows where they might have finished?
Unfortunately, any potential momentum from that turnaround departed with the four senior starters whose eligibility expired. Among them was leading scorer Shy Ely (19 points a game), and Jason Holsinger, who departed as the leading active scorer, free-throw percentage, three-point shooter and assist man in the MVC. This leaves the Aces to continue the rebuilding process with a team of young, unproven players and very little veteran leadership, not to mention without their top two players.
When your only returning starter is a 6’11” Dutchman who spent most of his first two years as a role player before averaging a pedestrian 4 points/3 rebounds last year, you’re bound to take a step backwards.
Simmons is a solid coach, but his work will be cut out for him in 2009-10.
What to Watch For: Non-conference games against Butler at home, and Western Kentucky on the road should provide the Aces with an opportunity to prove me wrong early.
Versus Creighton: January 3 in Evansville, February 3 in Omaha
Prognosis: 8-21, 3-15 in the MVC
NINE // Missouri State
The Bears forced out Barry Hinson after nine years, a dubious decision at the time that looked even worse after Cuonzo Martin’s first campaign was in the books — a disastrous 11-20 season which included a 3-15 MVC record. Losing 17 of their final 21 games didn’t even allow them to show they’d progressed during the year, nor did it allow them to carry any positive vibes into the the offseason.
Losing leading scorer Chris Cooks in early January to injury certainly added to their struggles, and they had their entire roster healthy for just three games all season. While they played hard for Martin, the Bears were borderline non-competitive in many games during conference play, including in a pair of losses to Creighton.
Can they learn to win on the road? They went winless away from Springfield in the MVC, and just 2-11 for the season. Can they find a consistent second scoring option behind Kyle Weems (10 points/5 boards a year ago)? Can Boston U transfer Will Creekmore progress and use his 6’9″ frame to take over games? Can Cuonzo Martin channel the legendary snarl of mentor Gene Keady to intimidate the notoriously flaky MVC referees?
Lots of questions, obviously. The only thing that’s certain is that in year two of Martin’s regime, the Bears will be only marginally better.
What to Watch For: A non-conference tilt at Arkansas is a rare SEC-MVC matchup, but the first week of February is an absolutely brutal conference stretch: UNI at home, SIU on the road, Creighton and SIU at home, and then at Wichita. If they can manage anything better than 0-5, it’ll be impressive.
Versus Creighton: January 24 in Omaha, February 6 in Springfield
Prognosis: 10-19, 4-14 in the MVC
EIGHT // Drake
Two years ago, I took some serious heat for picking Drake to finish sixth when most pundits had them finishing closer to tenth. Of course, I turned out to be wrong when they won the whole dang thing — I was just less wrong than most others. Well, I’ll probably take some heat again this year from my friends in Des Moines, because I’m picking the Bulldogs to finish eighth.
Before placing them here, I emailed my dad, the Drake alum, to tell him of my prognosis. “Eighth? Eighth? Son, years ago you used to make fun of me for being bald. Don’t worry, I’m not going to make a joke…I’ll let your mirror do it for me.”
Clearly he wasn’t pleased. But outside of Josh Young, the talent of that 2007 crew has now used up its eligibility, and the players Mark Phelps has brought in to replace them are young and unproven. So is Phelps. Maybe the Bulldogs win a few games they shouldn’t. Maybe their young players mature quickly and are playing well together by February. Maybe Phelps learns from his first-year mistakes. Maybe they finish sixth.
But I’ve got a bag of mini donuts and a six-buck PBR riding on them finishing eighth.
What to Watch For: The annual “Mythical State Championship” will be the most competitive as its been in years, as Iowa will be out to avenge a loss to Drake last year and Iowa State has arguably their best team in years.
Versus Creighton: January 6 in Omaha, January 30 in Des Moines
Prognosis: 13-19, 5-13 in the MVC
SEVEN // Bradley
Believe me, I agonized long and hard about this one. Bradley won 21 games a year ago, including winning 8 of their last 11 games, good for fourth place in the MVC. They advanced to the finals of the CollegeInsider.com postseason tournament. They get Andrew Warren, their leading scorer two years ago, back after a medical redshirt last season. Sam Maniscalco, last year’s leading scorer at over 12 points a game, is back too. Leading three-point shooter Dodie Dunson, who averaged 10 points and 4 boards and was 49-133 from deep, is also back. I’m going to stop now before I change my mind.
So how about some negatives to justify my prediction, then? Theron Wilson, a perennial thorn in the Jays’ side, has used up his eligibility. The Braves frontcourt will be a problem all season, as two freshmen (Milos Knezevic and Jordan Prosser) join six-year-wonder Sam Singh in a battle for minutes among the big men. Jim Les is back as the coach (just kidding!)
A preseason trip to Brazil is hoped to have provided some much-needed game experience for their inexperienced frontcourt. It was also to have allowed Andrew Warren a chance to get some game-speed action in his return from a broken foot, but his injury had not healed enough to be cleared to play.
The Braves definitely have talent, but the loss of Theron Wilson will prevent them from finishing much higher than sixth. Seventh is more likely, and that’s where they are on my list.
What to Watch For: The Las Vegas Invitational that featured such crummy teams when Creighton played in it a year ago has Oklahoma State, Illinois, Utah and Bradley this year. I will now gouge my eyes out with a fork. Anyway, the MVC needs them to pull an upset or two to bolster their collective non-conference resume.
Versus Creighton: January 27 in Peoria, February 27 in Omaha
Prognosis: 14-15, 6-12 in the MVC
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Stop back Thursday for previews of the top six teams in the league! You bet.
