I’ve been fighting off a wicked cold since yesterday. Why am I fighting it? Because passively accepting it would be akin to surrender, and I don’t do that. Ever. So I fight on, nose running, body functioning at about 75% efficiency. And thanks to my private office at work, I can shut the door and keep from spreading it to my co-workers! You bet. Anyway, if any or all of this post seems off-kilter, now you know why…
Tomorrow, Creighton travels to the East Coast to take on the Patriots of George Mason. Trips out east are fairly uncommon for the Jays; this is just the fourth such trip in the last decade (Drexel, St. Josephs, and George Mason twice). The Jays will be facing a competitive Mason team that is coming off a nailbiting home loss to Dayton as they try to get back to .500 on the season, and pick up their first road win.
I’ve heard this game described as a “must-win” by several of my friends, usually in the context of saying that if the Jays are to build any kind of at-large bid resume, they have to begin by winning tomorrow. The thinking is this: beat George Mason and New Mexico on the road, take care of Savannah State and Houston Baptist at home, and be 7-4 heading into MVC play. Toss in what hopefully is a decent BracketBuster game (and win), and the Jays would be sitting at 8-4 non-conference with road wins over two solid mid-major teams, and close losses to Michigan and Dayton.
Here’s where that theory runs into trouble: Iona and Xavier. Iona is a bad team, and that loss will be a millstone around the Jays’ neck in the tournament committee room. There’s no way around that. Beating George Mason and New Mexico can’t overcome that. Xavier, on the other hand, may very well be fighting for an at-large bid out of the A10 — and their blowout win against the Jays gives them the advantage should the teams’ resumes be compared head-to-head. When you’re looking at a scenario where only two or three mid-majors are going to get at-large bids, you can’t afford to lose head-to-head matchups with teams you might be fighting for one of those precious spots.
Another problem: with only 8 wins out of conference, the Jays are going to need 13 or 14 wins in the MVC to get any sort of impressive-looking record. Heck, even to get to 20 wins (which isn’t as magical a number as some lead you to believe) they must go 12-6 in the league.
My sense is the Jays’ hopes for an at-large bid have largely evaporated. To say that on December 11 is disgusting, but I’m afraid its more than likely true. The margin for error as a mid-major is not big to begin with, and thanks to the way their first seven games have gone, the Jays’ margin for error is now miniscule.
That being the case, Saturday is NOT a must-win. Its a “must improve” game. If their at-large chances are slim and none, then the season becomes a marathon to put themselves in the best position to win Arch Madness and take the automatic bid. To do that, they need to improve over these next four games so that they’re ready for the conference opener. They need to continue to improve on the boards. They need to play better defense for more of the game (all of the game, preferably, but that might be too much to ask.) They need to find their outside shooting stroke again. They need to get more consistent play from their point guards. And they need Kenny Lawson to continue to be a beast in the paint.
If they can have those things clicking by December 29 when Northern Iowa comes to town to open the league slate, they’ll be in a position to make a nice run in the league. And if they can be firing on all cylinders come March 5, the Jays have as good a chance as anyone — arguably, a better one depending on your opinion of the talent level in the league — to win three straight and take the automatic bid. That has to be the goal. And to accomplish that, winning against George Mason and New Mexico are not as important as improving so that come conference play, they’re playing well enough to get a favorable seed.
Bottom line: wins over George Mason and New Mexico won’t get the Jays an at-large bid, but they will improve their seeding once they get there IF they can win the auto bid. Hope for the best. You bet.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: George Mason brings a 4-5 record into the game, but two of their losses are to Top 25 teams (#5 Villanova and #21 Georgia Tech), another came at the hands of a team that was rated earlier this year (Dayton) and the other two more were against respectable opponents (Tulane and George Washington). Six of their nine games have been decided by five points or less. Don’t let their record deceive you — the Patriots are a good team … Mason features seven freshmen and just one senior. Their recruiting class was rated by ESPN as one of the best among non-BCS schools … George Mason is being outrebounded by an average of 4.4 a night. Insert your own pithy comment about the Jays rebounding woes here … Preseason all-conference player Cam Long leads the team in scoring and has provided both solid play at the point guard spot and solid leadership on a young team … The Patriots are not a good shooting team, preferring to play defense. Statistically, they average just 40% from the field, 32% from three-point range, and 64% from the charity stripe. They score an average of just 63 points a contest, and have given up an average just slightly higher, of 63.4 points per game … Patriots coach Jim Larranaga is in his 13th season on the bench in Fairfax after stints at Bowling Green and American. His 233-147 record at George Mason is the best in school history, and he’s led them to postseason play seven of the last nine years. In 2006, he was the national coach of the year after leading them to the Final Four.
The Last Time They Played: Creighton beat George Mason 76-63 last year in Omaha as part of BracketBusters. The teams have met twice previous to that, as part of a home-and-home deal that began in 2005. The only meeting in Fairfax took place in November of 2005, and was the Jays last win at full-strength that season as Nate Funk suffered a season-ending shoulder injury the next game at DePaul. The 72-52 win looked HUGE in hindsight after that Patriots team wound up in the Final Four. In 2006, Mason returned the game and lost a thriller in Omaha 58-56.
The Series: Creighton leads 3-0.
Historical Lesson Of The Day: Don’t worry, this won’t be a regular segment. At least, I don’t think it will. Who is George Mason? Founding Father, statesman, delegate from Virginia to the Constitutional Convention, and native of Fairfax County. Along with James Madison (who also has a college named for him, and which one of our commenters amusingly confused George Mason with a few days ago), Mason is known as the “Father of the Bill of Rights.” So, you know, he’s a fairly important guy in our country’s history.
Gratuitous Linkage: George Mason students in attendance at tomorrow’s game will get a free beach towel as part of their “Game of the Week” promotion. Seems each week, they pick a game from one of the varsity sports, and give out a promotional item to all students who attend. Some of the other prizes included playing cards, a gym bag, a Chipotle burrito, and a Chick-Fil-A sandwich. Why they waited until December to give out the beach towel, when its of no use to anyone as far north as Fairfax until April, is beyond me.
Official Gametime Snack: Noon game on a Saturday? Gotta go with some sliced meats and cheeses. Get some variety, both in the cheeses and in the crackers, and you’re going to be set for the whole afternoon. Trust me. Just leave out the Wheat Thins. No Wheat Thins Ever!
The Totally Random Song I’d Play Right Now if I was Still a Radio DJ:
I played “Last Christmas” last Friday, so its only fair to my Jewish friends to play a Chanukah song today. And what better than this utterly bizarre Neil Diamond cover of Adam Sandler’s “Chanukah Song”? Yes, this is a real thing. Its on The Sequined One’s new holiday album. As OMC might have said in 1997, How Bizarre.
Prediction: George Mason is going to have trouble in the paint tomorrow. Kenny Lawson will continue his transformation into a dominating inside force, and Justin Carter, playing in front of what will essentially be a hometown crowd (he grew up 30 minutes away) will play his best game of the year so far. However, the Jays’ guards will turn it over a few times, outside shots will still struggle to go in, and the game will be close throughout.
Creighton 68, George Mason 62
