For Illinois State and Creighton, two teams expected to challenge for the regular season league crown by many preseason publications, Saturday’s game is every bit the pivotal matchup it was figured to be. With one kinda-big difference: its for sole possession of third place, not first.
The winner will find itself alone in third place, just one game behind a suddenly-vulnerable Wichita State team. The loser will fall back into a pack of teams trying desperately to avoid the Thursday play-in round in St. Louis. This is life in the Bizarro Valley, where just three games separate third place from ninth place.
Neither team would have figured on being in this situation back in November, much less being excited about the possibilities a win grants. Chief among those possibilities: for all of their collective struggles, the winner can put themselves in position to reap the benefits if Wichita State slips up again.
While its probably hyperbole to state all of the pressure is on the Jays, its not overboard to suggest a good portion of the pressure belongs to them, for a plethora of reasons:
- They lost in Normal to Illinois State, so a loss would give the Redbirds the head-to-head tiebreaker
- In a league where road wins are proving tough to get for every team not named Northern Iowa, securing home victories is a must
- Creighton has road trips to Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois remaining among their final three games, both tough places to envision the team winning
Adding to the pressure for Creighton is the knowledge that Illinois State — and Osiris Eldridge in particular — have been a nightmare matchup the last three years. The Redbirds have won five of the last six meetings, including the devastating beatdown in St. Louis last March. This version is not nearly as good as the previous two, but they have excelled in one area that has proved to be the Jays achilles heel: playing their best basketball after intermission. They’ve won six games they trailed at the half, in contrast to the dozen or so (ballpark figure) games the Jays have blown in such a fashion.
Creighton jumped out to an 11-0 lead at Illinois State in their first meeting this year, before blowing the lead and losing 71-62. But did you know it was the first time that Creighton scored the first 10 points of any game since March 17, 2005? I’m sure you remember that game (unless you drank yourself into a stupor afterwards). That’s the day the Bluejays led 10-0 against West Virginia in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Creighton lost that game too, 63-61. Dang, yo.
Here’s a staggering, STAGGERING fact from the first game with ISU Red this year: Creighton played its starting five from tip-off until 13:28 remained in the first half, building up a 17-8 lead before the first reserves entered. Here’s the staggering part: that game is one of four occasions this year that Creighton’s starting five remained on the floor until the first media timeout, and the Jays have won just one of those games.
The “O” Hawk hasn’t been himself in the Redbirds’ last seven games. The league’s leading scorer is averaging 11.9 points per game during that stretch, shooting 28.1% (25-for-89) from the field and 26.1% on threes (12-for-46). Not surprisingly, the Redbirds are just 4-3 in those seven games.
Of course, all of that is fine and good, but it probably just means he’ll erupt like a violent volcano on Saturday to make up for his slump. In his three previous games at Qwest Center, Eldridge is averaging 19.3 points per game, while shooting 19-for-26 (.528) from the field and 10-for-17 (.588) on threes. Even more annoying, over his career in eight games against the Jays, Eldridge is averaging 18.4 points per game, while shooting 53.1 percent (26-for-49) on threes. He’s a stone-cold wrecking crew the likes of which we haven’t seen in a while, and saints be praised for that.
I have no clue what to expect on Saturday. Osiris could get 30 points and hit seven three pointers, as the Redbirds roll. Dinma Odiakosa could destroy Kenny Lawson in the paint en route to a Redbirds win. Or the Jays could get big performances from Justin Carter, Josh Jones, or someone else en route to a win.
Flip a coin. It’ll be as accurate as anything I, or anyone else, predicts about this team.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Picked third in the preseason Missouri Valley Conference poll, the Redbirds are currently 17-8 overall and tied for third in the league with an 8-6 conference record … Preseason Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year Osiris Eldridge leads the league with just shy of 16 points per game. He is also second on the ISU squad with 38 steals and 66 assists … Dinma Odiakosa gives the Redbirds a double-double threat inside, as the senior big man averages 12.4 points and 8.6 rebounds per game while shooting a Valley-best 63.0 percent from the field … Also scoring in double-figures is floor general Lloyd Phillips, who scores 10.8 points per game and has dished a club-best 105 assists … For the second-straight game, Illinois State will be on the road facing a team that is tied with them in the Valley standings for third place. The Redbirds snapped a four-game road losing skid Tuesday night at Bradley, with a 62-61 win … Illinois State is in its 40th season as a NCAA Division I program, and during that time, the Redbirds have only had seven losing seasons … The Redbirds have made 16 postseason appearances, including the last two seasons with a National Invitational Tournament berth … The Redbirds are 6-7 this season when behind at the intermission. When leading at the half, ISU is 11-0 … Osiris Eldridge (15.8 ppg.) and Dinma Odiakosa (8.6 rpg.) lead the Valley in scoring and rebounding, respectively, and are looking to become the first teammates to sweep those statistical categories since 1992 (Ashraf Amaya of Southern Illinois did both that year). That statistical double has only happened eight times in the past 50 seasons (six of those eight were done by the same person, not teammates) … Illinois State averages 70.7 points per game while allowing 64.2 per contest. ISU Red shoots 44.8% from the field, 33.4% from three-point range and 71.4% from the line. They outrebound their opponents by 4.9 caroms per contest.
The Last Time They Played: Freshman reserve Justin Clark had a career-high 13 points and Dinma Odiakosa had 10 of his 13 points after halftime to lead Illinois State to a come-from-behind, 71-62 victory on January 20 in Normal. Creighton led 11-0 to start the game and took a 38-28 lead into the halftime break.
The Series: This is the 64th meeting between the two schools. Illinois State owns a 39-24 lead in the series and has won five of the last six meetings, although the Jays have still won 16 of the last 25 games. Creighton owns a 15-14 lead in games played in Omaha, including a 9-2 mark since 1999. Dana Altman is 17-17 all-time against Illinois State and 1-5 against Tim Jankovich-led teams.
Anthony Tolliver Watch: Remember in the Indiana State Primer how I mentioned that the Golden State fans were ripping management for signing the A-Train? After his monster game on Wednesday, perhaps the bobos will shut their pie holes. The A-Train had a career-high 29 points on 11-16 shooting, including 3-3 from behind the arc, in 45 minutes of play. Fellow rookie Stephen Curry had a triple-double, with 36 points, 13 assists and 10 rebounds.
The Totally Random Song I’d Play Right Now if I was Still a Radio DJ: You might think, from the videos I’ve played here all season, that all I listen to is 80s bands, and that my iPod is full of hair metal. Untrue. I’m actually a huge alt and modern rock fan, believe it or not. I’ve got an iPod like a pirate ship, and I’ll set sail with 50,000 songs I’ve never heard. Apologies to The Limosines for borrowing one of their lyrics there…
Here’s one of my favorite new bands, Neon Trees, a quartet out of Provo Utah. Their debut album doesn’t drop for another month, but I’ve been a fan of the lead single since I first stumbled across it a while back. Enjoy.
The Pick: Flip a coin. I did, and it came up with the Jays winning by five. Don’t take that to the bank, though.
Jays 74, ISU Red 69
