[dropcap]N[/dropcap]o one would have predicted this is how Creighton’s season would end — at halftime of the Big East Quarterfinals. Many, including myself, are still in shock.
While it is important we as fans take time to reflect on the many accomplishments of the 2019-2020 Bluejays, one thing is clear: the 2020-2021 season has already started. Here at WBR we’ll try to keep you updated on Creighton news and rumors as well as insight around the Big East.
This is the first of a semi-regular offseason column answering questions and off season movements. In this first edition, I’ll answer questions our readers submitted via Twitter and email over the last few days.
The Davion Conundrum
To start, we need to address the key question to the Jays off season: the status of Davion Mintz. The redshirt senior has started in over 80% of games for the Bluejays over the previous four seasons. Mintz was slated to start in 2019-2020 until a high ankle sprain late in the preseason derailed his senior year. He worked to get back to health prior to the start of conference season and was planning on playing in 2019-2020 if he was close to himself. Unfortunately, Mintz could not regain the explosion off his right ankle. McDermott told the OWH in December 2019:
“I’ve had a lot of conversations with him, with his family,” McDermott said. “He’s had a lot of conversations with his family. He’s thought about it long and hard. The reality of it is, you only get one senior season.”
His absence forced the big three of Zegarowski-Alexander-Ballock into playing a large majority of the minutes in the backcourt, a strategy that ultimately led to a Creighton regular season Big East Championship. Adding a quality guard like Mintz into the bunch, in theory, bolsters an already elite backcourt. But despite Mintz’s experience at the point, it’s difficult to see him grabbing any minutes back from Zegarowski moving forward.
Similarly, Alexander blossomed into an elite two-way guard. By all indications, Alexander will test NBA waters, but I expect him to return for unfinished business. Zegarowski and Alexander seemed to volley the title of ‘Creighton’s best player’ back-and-forth all season; however to many keen observers it was Mitch Ballock who transformed the Jays into a legit Final Four contender this last year.
The Birds of Trey averaged 34.6-34.7-36.0 minutes per game in 2019-2020. Don’t expect those minutes to fall dramatically in 2020-2021. It’s difficult to see even a proven player like Mintz carving out 20-25 minutes a game in 2020-2021, but it can be done. How?
Mintz would play at the 2, Alexander slides over to the 3, and Ballock would be the small-ball 4. Creighton proved in 2019-2020 that playing small did not hinder success, and in fact in many cases this brought success. Mintz, who is a good on-ball and wing defender, would make the Jays TOUGH on the perimeter in this lineup. However, those minutes would come at the cost of Damien Jefferson, Denzel Mahoney and Antwann Jones, each of whom brings a dynamism it seems the Jays value at the 4. It could also limit Ballock, who seems much more effective as the 3 than he was in 2018-2019 when he was forced to defend the 4. Mahoney/Jefferson and Jones are primed to have important roles for the Jays in the front court, each adding an aggression near the rim on both ends.
What does this mean?
Mintz has professional aspirations. Clearly he can make a living on basketball. To optimize his value he needs minutes and I can’t see where they would be for the Jays in 2020-2021. If he does decide to leave, it is believed he would be eligible to graduate and transfer, instantly making him one of the top graduate transfer guards in the nation. The North Carolina native would likely have no shortage of suitors from ACC, American or Conference USA programs.
Kerwin Walton or Josh Primo?
McDermott mentioned last week on 1620AM’s Unsportsmanlike Conduct that the Bluejays are looking to add another incoming freshman for 2020-2021. Clearly he’s talking about shooting guard Kerwin Walton of Minnesota or Canadian combo guard Josh Primo.
Walton is an elite shooter. ELITE. There is more to his game than his shooting ability, but make no mistake the foundation between Walton and Creighton is based on his ability to let it fly. Walton has excellent size, and is crafty at the rim. He has a very similar game to former Xavier sharpshooter Trevon Bluiett. The Jays made Walton a priority over the last two years. UNC, Vanderbilt, Georgetown, Minnesota and Arizona seem to be those most involved.
Here’s a breakdown of Walton’s main suitors:
Minnesota: Walton has been close to Pitino and the Gophers program, taking in quite a few games in 2019-2020. If he wanted to be a Gopher he likely would have made that call awhile ago. Maybe he was waiting to see if Pitino stayed on board. If that was the case why not commit once Minnesota committed to Pitino a week ago?
UNC: The Tar Heels got Walton to officially visit last Fall, and by all indications Walton enjoyed his visit. 2019-2020 is a year the Tar Heels will want to forget but they bring in one of the nations top recruiting classes, per usual, and it is difficult seeing Walton getting any minutes for them next year.
Vanderbilt: Coach Stackhouse has been personally involved with Walton for the last few months. He’s in the middle of a complete program reset. They’re a young squad, returning plenty of pieces but will likely have playing time available if Walton is as good as advertised.
Arizona: The Wildcats jumped into Minnesota last year and nabbed potential NBA lottery pick Zeke Nnaji. Nnaji and Walton are good friends. Could his success pave Walton’s path to Tucson? Many of the national experts think so.
Georgetown: Coach Ewing arrived to Walton’s recruitment late in the process, getting involved in December 2019. Ewing needs shooters. Walton is a shooter. On paper the Hoyas are a good fit.
Creighton: Walton is the proto-type 2 in the Creighton system. Not only is he an elite shooter, but he’s unselfish, moves without the ball, and has a good feel for the game. McDermott has been in personally to see Walton twice in the last two months.
Prediction: The wildcard here is that Walton will not be able to make any more visits, even unofficially before deciding. He’s made it clear in interviews he’s waiting to see how rosters shake out with departures before committing. If he’s looking for a backcourt with a void in 2020-2021 that won’t be Creighton. If he’s looking for the best fit for his game, well, that is clearly Creighton.
As for Primo, the Jays made the 6-6 combo guard THE priority target in 2021 last summer, knowing he might reclassify into the 2020 class at some point. They visited him numerous times when he was playing high school ball in Arizona. Primo burst onto the national scene after at stellar Basketball Without Borders camp during the NBA All-Star weekend. Primo is a great shooter, but also has strong lead guard skills and sneaky athleticism that allows him to play above the rim. He’s very similar, if not ahead of where Ty-Shon Alexander was with his game in high school.
For a while, I’ve been hearing Primo’s recruitment has been a two horse race between Alabama and Creighton. Both teams play a free-flowing offense predicated on ball movement producing open looks from three. Make no mistake, other schools have tried to get involved with Primo but to his credit he has stayed loyal to the two schools that have been on him since the beginning. For Jays fans who didn’t catch a Bama game last year, let me tell you they shoot a lot. A LOT. They attempted 957 three pointers in 2019-2020, connecting on 334 (34.9%). For reference the Jays, a team who defines themselves on the “Let It Fly” mantra, attempted 783 connecting on 302 (38.6%).
And here’s a breakdown of the Jays’ primary competition for Primo:
Alabama: The Tide might be the only major conference team that is more defined by the three pointer than the Jays. Nate Oats is an excellent young coach, and he’ll have Alabama back in the tournament soon, despite a few likely departures to the NBA in guard Kira Lewis and John Petty. Oats was previously at Buffalo and has strong ties to the Canadian prep circuit. Alabama has also already signed Primo’s friend and Ontario native forward Keon Ambrose-Hylton.
Creighton: Jays have been upfront with Primo for nearly a year that he is a top target. Whether it’s 2020 or 2021 they want Primo as a replacement for Alexander. Again, minutes might be difficult to come by in 2020-2021, but it’s easy to project him as a three year starter for the Jays.
Prediction: Primo was interviewed last week and told reporters he will make a decision mid-April. It will be either Alabama or Creighton. Recruiting pundits lean toward Alabama but Creighton really likes where they sit with Josh!
The Jays have also been linked to 2020 skilled Parisian forward Daniel Batcho. Batcho was set to make a recruiting visit to Creighton in march but the COVID-19 pandemic halted his ability to make trips abroad.
Batcho suffered a serious knee injury in 2018 which sidelined his progress and recruitment for many schools. He’s recently regained form and was named the MVP of the Euroleague Basketball Adidas Next Generation Tournament in Belgrade, despite his side losing in the finals. The 6-10 Batcho has good hands, is mobile, a problem in pick and roll situations and active on the glass.
Prediction: The Jays really like Batcho, but are prioritizing Walton and Primo for 2020 along with 1-2 transfers. This makes taking a player like Batcho hard in terms of roster spots. Creighton is excited to slot Memphis transfer Antwann Jones into the lineup and feel his tenacity and ability to rebound, play in the pick and roll, make him an ideal candidate for the 4 spot next year. Creighton feels Jones can be an answer at this position in 2020-2021, which somewhat reduces the need to take a 4 in the 2020 class.
March Madness
If you couldn’t tell, I love all the College Basketball hot stove discussion. It’s late March. Ideally we’d be breaking down Creighton’s S16 match up. Instead we’re left with either watching NCAA 2008 bracket simulations, reddit threads, or the one I prefer, the stove!
This is how I see Creighton’s 2020-2021 roster at the moment; keep in mind some of this is speculation and gut feeling.
The Jays have one current 2020 recruit in top 75 center Ryan Kalkbrenner. That leaves them with one current opening, assuming Jett Canfield returns to walk-on status.
I think Ty-Shon returns for his senior season. Restrictions of individual work-outs and interviews will make it hard for organizations to invest in a player who prior to 2020 was not projected to be in this draft. While there is plenty of (impressive) tape on Ty-Shon out there, him leaving seems like a stretch at this point. Likewise, Zegarowski will be back.
However, I think Davion Mintz graduates and transfers. As I stated above, I think many ACC or Conference USA teams would be elated to snag a player like him for next year at this point. The Jays are better if Davion stays, I just don’t see how he can get 25 minutes a game on this roster next year. The Zegarowski-Alexander-Ballock backcourt will likely be the top in the nation, and there’s no way their minutes decrease at any significant amount, and adding Jones to the Jefferson-Mahoney 3-4 spot adds further depth. I believe Davion grad transfers to Wake Forest/Clemson/UNC-Charlotte. That’s two spots.
There have been rumblings that Jalen Windham could be looking elsewhere. The talent wing never found his footing during his freshman year at CU, and while another year in the program would do wonders, he’s not likely in line for any more minutes in 2020-2021 than he was this past year, and if you look at who Creighton has prioritized above, it looks as though he could be behind Walton or Primo at the 2 if the Jays are able to land one of those two. For those reasons, I think Windham transfers to Tulane to rejoin Ron Hunter, the coach he originally signed with out of high school. That’s three spots.
That would give the Jays three spots to play with. If there is one thing I hope you take away from this column, it’s that Creighton has a lot going for it, but playing time in 2020-2021 is not it.
As I mentioned, McDermott told John Bishop they are going after one or two transfers. With Mahoney-Jefferson-Ballock-Alexander graduating in 2021, it would make sense for the Jays to prioritize 1 to 2 sit-out transfers this off season that are locked and loaded to make an immediate impact in 2021-2022. It’s early but those players are already available.
The rumors are still swirling the NCAA granting immediate eligibility to all transfers as soon as 2020-2021 but I don’t see it, and frankly, I don’t think any coach or program can sell a player who would typically sit a year on the conjecture at this point.
The Jays LOVE Ohio State transfer DJ Carton. The 6-2 lefty combo guard was excellent for the Buckeyes before mental health issues led him to step away from the team mid-year. The Iowa native has been rumored to be looking to move closer to home. There is lots of buzz that Creighton is one of the leaders at this point, but Carton has not started speaking to schools at this point. Expect the Jays to be very involved. If Carton gains immediate eligibility it’s hard to see where he’d fit into the backcourt in 2020-2021, but McDermott himself was the lead recruiter for Carton out of high school. This should signal Creighton’s intention to remain on the top of their wish list.
The Jays are also working hard with Virginia Tech transfer combo guard/wing Landers Nolley. The Atlanta native is seen by many as one of, if not the top, transfer on the market at this point. He led the Hokies in scoring in 2019-2020 with 15.5 ppg adding 5.8 rpg, connecting on 68-215 (31.6%) of his three’s. He left citing a desire to play more on the wing than on the low block which he was forced to do last season. At 6-7 he’s got good size but with the aforementioned attrition for the Jays leading into 2021-2022, Nolley could be a focal point of the Jays attack for years to come. The downside? The Jays will be competing with 60+ schools for his services.
Iowa State’s Caleb Grill and Binghamton’s Sam Sessoms are a pair of combo guards who the Jays have also made contact with. Grill was a target out of high school for the Jays. He had an up and down year for the Cyclones, but was expected to make a leap next year in Ames. His decision to seek a transfer was a shock to many. I am not familiar with Sessoms, but he was an elite scorer in the American East, leading the 6-1 sophomore to All-American East 2nd Team. The Philly native is looking to move up a level.
Prediction: The Jays will be active in the sit-out transfer market. They want Carton, along with most programs in the nation, but he has already established a relationship with McDermott and fits the style of play well. The question will be if he is immediately eligible; if so, that could hurt Creighton’s chances. I think he will get the waiver to play in 2020-2021.
Selling Nolley, or any top transfer, without the ability to bring them campus will be difficult. For Nolley in particular, minutes on the wing are available when he becomes eligible.
I think Creighton will be right there for Grill. They liked him in 2019, but it was hard to envision a scenario where he’d get any minutes in the lineup until 2021-2022. That would have made him a Junior had he come here out of high school. At this point, he’d be a redshirt sophomore ready to contribute after his sit-out year.
I like the Walton fit, but Primo seems to be the target. I think Primo ends up in the SEC. With that said the staff is confident in where they sit with Primo. The relationship has been built with Walton. The inability to further forge relationships through visits with schools like Georgetown helps Creighton, but if Walton or Primo is looking for 20+ mpg next year it’s not going to be in Omaha. It’s up to the staff to convince them that those minutes (and shots) will be there moving forward.
And hey, what freshman or transfer doesn’t want to compete on a daily basis with a Final Four contender?
Around the Big East
Finally, here’s a look at the rest of the league — their roster composition, who’s rumored to be coming in, and who’s rumored to be on the way out.
Butler
- Butler loses talented guard Khalif Battle to transfer
- Targets: grad transfer scoring guard Amauri Hardy, and sit out tranfers Trey McGowens, Morris Udeze, and Jamarius Burton
DePaul
- Reed could/should be in the NBA draft
- Devin Gage transfers out
- Targets: grad transfer combo guard Brendan Barry, and sit out transfers Landers Nolley, Trey McGowens, Ferron Flavors Jr.
- Involved with 2020 recruit Zaire Wade
Georgetown
- Rumors swirling that Yurtseven will pursue professional opportunities
- Hoyas will be very active with transfer market with so many open roster spots
- Targets: grad transfers Brendan Barry, Patrick Tape, Kodye Pugh, Kevin Marfo, Ian DuBose, sit out transfers Khalil Whitney and Landers Nolley
- Involved with 2020 recruits Kerwin Walton and Karim Mane
Marquette
- Marquette is high on 2020 point guard Karim Mane, many suspect they lead for him
- Targets: grad transfers Bryce Aiken, Amauri Hardy, Kevin Marfo, Justin Turner, sit out transfers Jamarius Burton and Sam Sessoms
- Assistant Coach Stan Johnson took the Loyola Marymount head coaching job
Providence
- Friars have been active and already filled holes moving forward grabbing Syracuse combo guard Brycen Goodine and La Salle mobile big man Ed Cresswell. Both will sit out 2020-2021
- Friars also visited with Maryland transfers Mahki and Mahkel Mitchell, however it seems as the Friars have passed on both
Seton Hall
- Pirates bring back some interesting pieces, but really need a point guard to allow Cale and Molson to shift in the lineup.
- Targets: grad transfer lead guard Bryce Aiken, wings Tahja Eaddy and Amauri Hardy and big man Kevin Marfo also sit out transfers Jamarius Burton, Trey McGowens and Sam Sessoms
St. John’s
- Rumors abound that Figueroa is looking at professional options
- Ian Steere and Damien Sears entered the transfer portal
- Targets: grad transfer Kevin Marfo
Villanova
- Not a ton of holes on this roster, however Bey and Robinson-Earl should get NBA looks. Do not be shocked if Bey climbs draft boards and has a tough decision to make.
- Wildcats are in play for Lincoln prep star Donovan Williams, although he seems destined for the Big XII
Xavier
- Like Creighton, Xavier has a stacked back court heading into the 2020-2021 and will likely be active with sit out transfers
- Some rumors floating around the Naji Marshall will be turning pro
- Targets: grad transfer Kevin Marfo would be a nice replacement for the departing senior Tyrique Jones they are also on Justin Turner, sit out transfers include Jamarius Burton, Trey McGowens, Ferron Flavors, Nate Johnson, Landers Nolley, Morris Udeze
UConn
- Talisman Alterique Gilbert entered the transfer portal
- Huskies have a nice group heading into next year, however the loss of Gilbert places more emphasis on Bouknight or Cole initiating offense. They could look to grab a grad transfer PG
- Targets: grad transfer Justin Turner, and sit out transfers Jamarius Burton, Trey McGowens and Landers Nolley
