Creighton earned their fifth-consecutive NCAA Tournament berth on Sunday night, with the committee giving them a ‘9’ seed and sending them to Lexington, Kentucky. That’s more or less in line with what was expected; heading into the Big East Tournament, Creighton seemed locked onto the 8/9 line for the NCAA Tournament based on metrics and bracket projections. And that’s where they ended up.
It’s a different story for their opponent. Louisville won 21 of their last 23 games, finished second in the ACC, and entered the weekend ranked #13 in the AP Poll. Now, polls don’t mean anything once March rolls around, but they’re generally informative as a sorting mechanism if nothing else — a team ranked that high is almost always in a similar tier in the computer metrics. When was the last time a top 15 team landed on the 8/9 line? According to a tweet from a Louisville reporter, it’s been awhile.
Most projections had Louisville as the top 6 seed or the last 5. They were 23 in the NET, 23 in KenPom, 19 in KPI and 19 in T-Rank. But on the official NCAA seed list they were 29. So Creighton draws a team that’s underseeded by two or maybe three lines, and plays them an hour from their campus.
“We drew a very difficult opponent in Louisville. 18-2 in the ACC is incredible,” Greg McDermott said on Sunday night. “My guess is they feel like they’re a little bit (underseeded) compared to where I thought they would probably be, and they probably think that maybe we’re a little bit better than a nine seed as well. And Chucky Hepburn obviously played at Bellevue East, has had an incredible college career and done a great job at Louisville this year. It’ll be a tough game for us but we’re excited to keep playing and I’m really thrilled to be able to coach these guys this week.”
Both Louisville and Creighton had to be shaking their heads at this one, but how would you like to be Auburn? They’re the top overall seed in the tourney, and their second round opponent (in the overwhelmingly likely chance that they advance) is either the 2nd place team from the Big East, or the 2nd place team from the ACC — and if it’s the latter, it’s a de facto road game, an hour from Louisville’s campus.
“We played a road game on Friday night against UConn, we played a road game last night against St John’s and we’re going to play a road game Thursday against Louisville. The environment that we experienced those two nights is going to prepare us for what’s ahead on Thursday,” McDermott said. “Obviously I think we’ll have a pretty good group of fans follow us to Lexington but you know, it’s a quick trip from Louisville to Lexington so I think they’re going to have a lot of people in the building.”
As for the Cardinals, they’re a veteran team with six of their top seven players being seniors. They won eight games a year ago, but in Pat Kelsey’s first season as coach they won 27, including a 20-3 mark against ACC teams — with two of the losses against Duke. 6’6” Terrence Edwards Jr. is a high-usage scorer who can be streaky, but when he gets hot can pour in points in a hurry. A pair of 6’11” big men, Noah Waterman and James Scott, give them a lot of size at the ‘4’ and ‘5’ spots and often play together. And then there’s Hepburn. The Omaha native has played at an All-American level since December, and was named the ACC Defensive Player of the Year last week. He also hit a buzzer-beater on Thursday against Stanford in the ACC Quarterfinals:
Oh Chucky where do I even begin. If this post gets 1k likes I will create a 500+ word essay on why Chucky Hepburn saved my year. pic.twitter.com/VDU0UasDqS
— Hepburner (@CJUofLFan) March 14, 2025
“I’ve always been impressed with Chucky. When he made the decision to move, he elevated that Louisville program in a hurry,” McDermott said. “Coach Kel’s been doing this a long time. He was successful at Winthrop, he was successful at at Charleston and now he’s done a great job in year one at Louisville despite some injuries early in the year. They’ve kind of had to retool like we did, and then just went on an incredible run through the ACC. It’s a tough draw and Chucky’s an elite point guard and a great leader. But fortunately we have one of those too.”
If there’s a question mark to monitor this week, it’s the health of Reyne Smith. His ankle injury kept him out of the last three games, and his availability (or productivity even if he does play) is up in the air. He’s their best 3-point shooter (38.3% on 277 attempts) and a big loss if he can’t go. For the Jays, McDermott expects Fedor Zugic to be back on the practice court in the next day or so.