In two polls released Monday, Creighton earned its highest preseason rankings in program history. The Bluejays are #8 in the Associated Press Preseason Top 25, one spot higher than their previous best — when they were #9 a year ago. And they landed at #9 in the USA Today Coaches’ Poll, equalling their highest-ever preseason ranking in that poll (also set a year ago).
A year ago at this time, we were talking about how human prognosticators were significantly higher on the Jays than computer models. Last October, the AP and Coaches’ Poll voters also pegged Creighton as a top ten team — while they were #32 in Haslametrics’ preseason ranking, #23 in T-Rank, 41st in Massey Ratings, and 22nd in KenPom, behind Villanova.
This year that’s not the case.
Among the preseason ratings released to date, they’re #19 in Haslametrics’ preseason ratings, #4 in T-Rank, #13 in Massey, and #12 in KenPom. Their average ranking among the eight polls released so far is 8.9, with a median of 7.5. (Hat tip to Marquette site Paint Touches for tracking this). In other words, this year the computers have calculated them to be more or less exactly where the human polls think they are — making them a consensus top ten team.
So while the hype before last season was uncharted territory for the Jays, the hype this year isn’t even on the chart at all. In 105 seasons of Bluejay basketball, they’ve never entered a campaign with this sort of universal national acclaim. That sounds like hyperbole, but it’s not! After making the Elite Eight a year ago for the first time, they’re predicted to be one of the eight best teams again.
On the AP side of things, it’s the sixth time that Creighton has appeared in their preseason poll (which began in 1949). Five of those six have happened in the Greg McDermott Era:
2006-07 (under Dana Altman): #19
2012-13: #16
2016-17: #22
2020-21: #11
2022-23: #9
2023-24: #9
It’s the 23rd time they’ve been in the top ten at any point before or during a season, with 22 of those 23 coming under McDermott. It’s the 123rd poll they’ve been ranked in, with McDermott as head coach for 95 of them. They’ve been in the AP Top 25 for at least one week in 10 of McDermott’s 14 seasons — after doing it in five total seasons before his arrival.
Their best-ever ranking is #7, done five times — at #8 in the preseason poll and with three weeks of games to begin the season where they’ll be heavy favorites, it seems like that best-ever ranking is in danger.
On the Coaches’ Poll side, it’s the seventh time they’ve appeared in the preseason edition — all of the same seasons that they appeared in the AP poll, plus 1962-63 when Red McManus’ Jays were #23 in the preseason Coaches’ Poll.
It’s the 150th poll they’ve been ranked in, with 108 of those coming under McDermott. They’ve had 17 different teams ranked in the Coaches’ Poll over the years; nine of them have been coached by McDermott.
Things that used to be unusual 15 years ago have now become routine. I hope we never take that for granted.
Digging deeper into KenPom’s data
The nitty-gritty data in KenPom’s preseason rankings is always interesting to me, as insight into what his models think of a team’s makeup. In a blog post accompanying the release of his rankings, Pomeroy wrote that he “includes the last five seasons of team data and two seasons of conference data (using the current season’s membership), plus returning production, transfers, and notable freshmen, along with coaching changes. Independent forecasts are made for offense and defense.”
Here’s a comparison of last year’s year-end rankings, compared to this year’s preseason projections:
2022-23 / 2023-24 (Proj.)
Overall: 12 / 12
AdjO: 23 / 11
AdjD: 14 / 18
AdjT: 143 / 144
So, an identical overall ranking, with a big jump in adjusted offensive efficiency (hello, Steven Ashworth!) and a slight drop in adjusted defensive efficiency (goodbye, Arthur Kaluma’s perimeter defense).
Game-by-game, Creighton is favored in 27 of 30 games, with the only losses at Marquette, Connecticut, and Villanova. Of the 27 wins, only two come with less than a 60% probability of victory: at Xavier and versus UConn at home. Of course, some of those 60/40 and 70/30 games don’t break your way — and that’s why KenPom pegs their projected record at 21-8 and 14-6 in the league.
As always, there’s a definite limit to the predictive abilities of all of these models, but any team whose adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency both rank inside the Top 20 is well-positioned to make a deep run in March — and the consensus among all of them is that CU is a team that has both of those things.
Big Week Ahead: Closed scrimmage with Iowa State, Big East Media Day
The annual “closed door scrimmage” will see the Jays take on Iowa State, a team who was ridiculous defensively a year ago (8th nationally, surrendering 91.0 points per 100 possessions) and limited offensively. Both traits were on display in a 59-41 NCAA Tourney upset loss to Pitt. This year’s Cyclones are predicted to have the #3 adjusted defensive efficiency by KenPom (giving up a predicted 86.2 points per 100 possessions, with only Kansas and Tennessee better), so regardless of where they’re pegged in the Big XII hierarchy, they’ll pose a significant test for the Jays.
Then the Big East’s teams head to NYC for Media Day, where the league’s preseason poll and individual honors will be unveiled. There’s some intriguing subplots around the league.
Will Ryan Kalkbrenner be favored to win an unprecedented third straight Defensive Player of the Year award? Will Trey Alexander land on the first, second or honorable mention All-Big East lists after being the only CU starter to be left off of them a year ago? Who gets the preseason coach of the year award — defending national champ Dan Hurley, defending league champ Shaka Smart, or someone else?
One thing is for sure: the eyes of college basketball will be on the league, as six of their 11 teams are either ranked in the preseason poll (#5 Marquette, #6 Connecticut, #8 Creighton, #22 Villanova) or are receiving votes (St. John’s and Xavier).
