Ed. Note: This is the last of a three-part series on the first half of the Big East slate. Tuesday, we looked back at Creighton’s first nine games. Wednesday, we looked at how the other nine teams have fared so far. Today we wrap up the series with a look ahead to the backstretch of the schedule for Creighton, and whether they can avoid a February swoon.
Creighton has jumped out to quick starts in league play each of the last two years, only to slide backwards in February with a three-game losing streak. In 2012, they lost the MVC opener at home to Missouri State, then rattled off 11 straight wins. On the morning of February 4, they were 21-2 and 11-1 in the league, and appeared to be sitting pretty. Then they lost consecutive games at Northern Iowa and Evansville, followed by a home loss to Wichita State, a stretch that cost them an opportunity to win the regular season title.
Last year, on the morning of February 6 they were 20-3 overall and 9-2 in the Valley. They were blown out by Indiana State in Terre Haute that night, then lost at home to Illinois State and on the road to Northern Iowa. Just like the year before, a three-game February skid appeared to have cost them a chance at a league title. They needed help from Evansville, who upset Wichita State in Wichita in the second-to-last game of the season, to give them the opportunity to win the regular season crown (which they did, of course).
“We’ve had trouble in February the last two years, where we’ve had a bad stretch, so we can’t do what we did the last two years,” Coach Greg McDermott noted on the 1620AM Postgame show last week. “That’s part of the reason why when the schedule was being put together, I took this break when I had the opportunity. I thought, maybe we need a break for the stretch run. There’s a risk there, however; when you’re 8-1, the last thing you want to do is stop playing games. You want to keep it rolling.”
Is that a risk worth taking?
One of the reasons frequently cited by fans on the Bluejay Underground during the three-game losing streaks each of the last two years has been fatigue — too many minutes for the starters, not enough minutes for not enough players on the bench, and by the time February rolls around, they’re worn out. I’ve never been a huge proponent of that theory, but it’s hard to look at the results and not wonder if there’s something to it. Both years, they didn’t just lose games despite playing well, they lost games by being a step slow defensively and missing a lot of jump shots, two things that are hallmarks of teams with tired legs.
To their credit, both years they fought through it to win the MVC Tourney title and a game in the NCAA Tourney. The downside is the three-game skids undoubtably cost them a better seed both years, giving them the unenviable task of playing North Carolina in the Round of 32 in 2012, and Duke in the same round in 2013. That’s not the sort of route that ends up with a Sweet 16 berth — playing the Tar Heels and Blue Devils that early in the tourney is usually a recipe for an early exit.
This year, they enter February at 18-3 overall and 8-1 in the league, numbers eerily similar to the last two years. But this year, they have a nine-game break in between the last game in January and the first game in February, thanks to Coach Mac taking advantage of an opportunity to give his team a break before the “dog days” of February.
Resting their legs for the second half grind is important, but so is being prepared every night. Greg McDermott made that point to John Bishop and Nick Bahe after last week’s win against St. John’s. “We can’t do the same things we did the last two years and expect different results. We have to understand that (after every game) we better get back to the film room, we better get back to the gym. When we’re on the practice floor, we’ve got to get some stuff done.”
That’s especially important this year, because their opponents are still new to them, and the first trip through the league was a grind — nine games in 28 days against teams they’d never played before. That means nine new scouting reports, nine new game preps, and nine new sets of player tendencies to learn. Each of the four road games took them to campuses they were unfamiliar with, and with the exception of Philadelphia, to cities this group had never played in before.
The success they had in those games will make it that much tougher the second time around, as Coach Mac noted. “I told the team, imagine we’re still in the Valley, and Loyola-Chicago joined the league. They’re the new guy, and at the halfway point they’re 8-1, and they kicked our tails when we played them. How much are we going to look forward to that second game? Well, we’re the new guy, and we’ve started off great. Every team that we play the rest of the way is champing at the bit to have another chance to play us.”
Marquette lost by 18 to Creighton in the first league game of the year; they’re sure to be ready for the rematch. Butler got spanked by 28 in Omaha, and regardless of their struggles, they’ll be motivated to put forth a better showing when Creighton comes to Indianapolis. And Villanova? You better believe they remember losing by 30 at home to the Jays. They might be as locked-in and ready for the rematch as any game they play all year.
It’s true that a three-game skid this year wouldn’t do as much damage, because they’re in a better conference and more importantly, are at a better place entering February. Right now, they’re almost universally a three or a four seed in most mock brackets; three more losses might drop them to a six, or at worst a seven seed. It’d sure be nice to keep that high seed and give themselves a more fortuitous route to the second weekend of the tournament, though, wouldn’t it?
The journey to that higher seed will have precious few moments to catch a breath — there’s no gimmies in the Big East anyway, but the way the schedule sets up down the home stretch, the toughest battles are distributed throughout the final nine games. It will be a brutal 29 days of hoops, beginning Friday night with DePaul at home. The Blue Demons are a team in disarray; they’re the only Big East squad with a losing record, and now they’re forced to play without perhaps their best player, as Cleveland Melvin is suspended indefinitely.
DePaul is the perfect opponent to get back into the swing of things against, because things get tougher immediately after. 48 hours later, they play the resurgent St. John’s Red Storm at the Garden in NYC, a team that is playing it’s best basketball of the year. With the memory of last weeks 63-60 loss fresh in their minds, it will be very interesting to see what their plan is — will they continue to be content with Doug McDermott scoring 40 points if they can stop everyone else again?
A trip to Hinkle Fieldhouse is next, where a Butler team trying desperately to stay out of last place awaits. Creighton has just two days to prepare for Villanova after getting home from Indy, as the Wildcats come to Omaha for a Sunday afternoon clash that might well decide the Big East title.
The Jays go to Milwaukee for a rematch with Marquette on February 19, a game that appears much easier than it did two months ago as the Golden Eagles continue to struggle through the worst year of the Buzz Williams Era. After a home game with Seton Hall, the Jays get a full week off again — this time, it’s five days to rest up and get ready for an absolute murderer’s row to end the season. In seven days’ time, they play at Xavier, at Georgetown and vs Providence at home. They’ll need those five days off to get ready, mentally and physically, for that gauntlet.
Playing a first-half slate of five home games and four road games, Creighton went 8-1. Flipping the home/road script in the second half, Creighton is not likely to repeat that record. My guess is they go 7-2, with losses at St. John’s and Xavier and victories in every other game, though the Villanova game could easily go either way. A 7-2 mark puts them at 25-5 and 15-3 in the league entering the conference tourney with almost assuredly the #1 seed; a 6-3 mark would find them a still impressive 24-6 and 14-4 in the league, with either the #1 or the #2 seed. Either scenario lands them a Top 16 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and a much better avenue to the second weekend than they’ve ever had in their history.
Nine games in 29 days. It promises to be a stretch of games unlike anything Creighton has played in recent memory. Hopefully it’s a stretch we’ll all remember fondly.