On Deck: Creighton vs. Villanova

(Spomer / WBR)

Series Schedule

• 6:30 p.m. on Thursday, May 16, 2019
• 6:30 p.m. on Friday, May 17, 2019
• 12:00 p.m. on Saturday May 18, 2019 (Senior Day)
• Location: TD Ameritrade Park Omaha
• Broadcast: Thursday, Friday (Jays Video: https://gocreighton.com/watch), Saturday (Big East Digital Network)

Weekend Forecast

It’s going to feel like summer at the stadium this weekend, according to the latest 7-day forecast from KETV Omaha. Thursday’s series opener runs into a mostly sunny day with a high of 87 and a low of 64. A few more clouds will be in the sky for game two on Friday, but nothing ominous. Saturday will be interesting. It’s supposed to be a smidge cooler than Thursday and Friday with a high of 82 and a low of 67, but afternoon showers and thunderstorms — some potentially severe — could throw off the scheduled noon start for Senior Day.

Big East Standings

1. Xavier: 12-4 (.750) | remaining conference schedule: none
2. Creighton: 11-4 (.733) | remaining conference schedule: vs. Villanova
3. Seton Hall: 9-6 (.600) | remaining conference schedule: at St. John’s
4. St. John’s: 6-9 (.400) | remaining conference schedule: vs. Seton Hall
5. Butler: 5-9 (.357) | remaining conference schedule: at Georgetown
6. Georgetown: 5-10 (.333) | remaining conference schedule: vs. Butler
7. Villanova: 4-10 (.286) | remaining conference schedule: at Creighton

Big East Tournament Seeding Scenarios for Creighton

#1 seed: 3 wins over Villanova OR 2 wins over Villanova as long as the third game is cancelled

#2 seed: 3 cancellations vs. Villanova OR 1 win over Villanova

#3 seed: 3 losses to Villanova + 3 wins by Seton Hall OR 2 losses to Villanova with one cancellation + 3 wins by Seton Hall

Note: Xavier, Creighton, and Seton Hall have already clinched a bid to the conference tournament.

Villanova Scouting Report

The Bluejay bats hope to be active this weekend (Spomer / WBR)

Although the Wildcats are 22 games below .500 on the season, they aren’t just coming to Omaha for the sole purpose of spoiling Creighton’s conference championship coronation. Despite their 4-10 record in Big East play and current last-place standing in the league they still have an outside chance at qualifying for next weekend’s four-team, double elimination conference tournament in Mason, Ohio.

Villanova’s path to Prasco Park is by no means easy. Assuming there are no rainouts or cancellations across the league this weekend — I’ll wait for you stop laughing … finished? ok, good — they would jump into that fourth and final open spot if they sweep their three-game series at Creighton, St. John’s gets swept by Seton Hall, and Georgetown takes two of three at home against Butler. It’s a long shot for sure, especially when you consider that they’ve won two games in a row one time this season.

Through 14 games in Big East play, the Wildcats as a team are dead last in batting average (.198), slugging percentage (.277), hits (87), home runs (5), total bases (122), and stolen bases (4). They are second-to-last in on-base percentage (.310) ahead of only Georgetown, and have also struck out a league-worst 157 times. And that’s just their offense. Defensively their .964 fielding percentage in league play is tied with St. John’s for last in the Big East and on the mound they have the worst earned run average at 5.50, the highest opponent batting average at .287 — which is nearly 100 points higher than they are hitting themselves — and they round it out with the fewest strikeouts (102) of any pitching staff in the league.

Freshman Nick Lorusso is a two-way player to watch for the next few years in the Big East. His 28 walks against just 30 strikeouts in 46 games this season shows impressive plate discipline, and his .305/.418/.419 leads the team in all three categories. His 6.20 earned run average and .345 batting average against in 40.2 innings on the mound indicate that the bat is more advanced than the arm, but his strikeouts per nine innings is sitting at a solid 7.16 and he has found a spot in the weekend rotation for each of the last three Big East series, including game one starts against both St. John’s and Xavier.

Senior right-hander Jonathan Rosero and freshman right-hander Gordon Graceffo have been rounding out the weekend rotation along with Lorusso, but sophomore right-hander Jimmy Kingsbury leads the team in earned run average at 4.10, strikeouts with 61, and innings pitched at 79.0. Kingsbury has started nine games this season, but lately has only seen starts in mid-week games with Villanova opting to use him in a long relief role on the weekend in order to have him available for multiple games.

The rest of the lineup behind Lorusso has struggled. Regardless of sample size he’s the only player on the roster with a slugging percentage north of .400. By comparison, Creighton has five every day players who are slugging .450 or higher in Jake Holton (.745), Will Robertson (.567), Parker Upton (.551), Isaac Collins (.479), and Jordan Hovey (.450).

The Jays are ready for this weekend (Spomer / WBR)

Creighton’s Resume

Overall Record: 32-11 (Big East: 11-4, Home: 10-5, Road: 21-5, Neutral: 1-1)

RPI

• NCAA.com: 23 (previous week: 24)
• D1Baseball.com: 23 (previous week: 24)
• WarrenNolan.com: 23 (previous week: 24)

NC SOS

• D1Baseball.com: 66
• WarrenNolan.com: 48

Record vs. Quadrant 1 (RPI 1-50): 6-2

Record vs. Quadrant 2 (RPI 51-100): 8-7

Record vs. Quadrant 3 (RPI 101-150): 6-1

Record vs. Quadrant 4 (RPI 151-299): 12-1

Probable Starting Pitchers

Thursday

• Creighton: RHP Mitch Ragan – 3.65 era | 8.43 K/9 | 1.48 BB/9
• Villanova: RHP Gordon Graceffo – 4.98 era | 5.95 K/9 | 3.18 BB/9

Friday

• Creighton: LHP Denson Hull – 5.08 era | 6.82 K/9 | 4.35 BB/9
• Villanova: RHP Jonathan Rosero – 5.97 era | 6.70 K/9 | 5.13 BB/9

Saturday

• Creighton: RHP Evan Johnson – 3.25 era | 7.97 K/9 | 4.72 BB/9
• Villanova: RHP Nick Lorusso – 6.20 era | 7.16 K/9 | 3.36 BB/9

Probable Starting Lineups

Creighton (32-11, 11-4)

1. Isaac Collins, 2B – .300 avg | .380 obp | .479 slg | 4 hr | 28 rbi | 11 sb
2. Parker Upton, LF – .309 avg | .489 obp | .551 slg | 7 hr | 28 rbi | 8 sb
3. Will Robertson, RF – .294 avg | .388 obp | .567 slg | 11 hr | 53 rbi | 1 sb
4. Jake Holton, 1B – .412 avg | .507 obp | .745 slg | 12 hr | 49 rbi | 1 sb
5. Jack Strunc, SS – .251 avg | .299 obp | .354 slg | 1 hr | 21 rbi | 4 sb
6. Jordan Hovey, 3B – .245 avg | .369 obp | .450 slg | 7 hr | 28 rbi | 9 sb
7. Jared Wegner, DH – .287 avg | .358 obp | .370 slg | 1 hr | 16 rbi | 5 sb
8. David Vilches, C – .228 avg | .396 obp | .354 slg | 1 hr | 5 rbi | 1 sb
9. Will Hanafan, CF – .268 avg | .357 obp | .370 slg | 0 hr | 13 rbi | 4 sb

Villanova (13-35, 4-10)

1. Tyler Bruno, RF – .202 avg | .300 obp | .284 slg | 1 hr | 10 rbi | 1 sb
2. Dylan McNary, SS – .230 avg | .348 obp | .310 slg | 2 hr | 17 rbi | 4 sb
3. Chris Rotondo, CF – .265 avg | .374 obp | .381 slg | 1 hr | 15 rbi | 7 sb
4. Nick Lorusso, DH – .305 avg | .418 obp | .419 slg | 3 hr | 27 rbi | 2 sb
5. J.P. Radvany, 1B – .226 avg | .341 obp | .329 slg | 3 hr | 32 rbi | 0 sb
6. Sam Margulis, LF – .264 avg | .368 obp | .308 slg | 0 hr | 10 rbi | 3 sb
7. Pat O’Neill, 2B – .274 avg | .344 obp | .354 slg | 1 hr | 19 rbi | 0 sb
8. Doug deMarrais, C – .230 avg | .333 obp | .379 slg | 3 hr | 15 rbi | 0 sb
9. John Heilenbach, 3B – .237 avg | .406 obp | .355 slg | 2 hr | 12 rbi | 1 sb