Coming into the season, the Jays had five marquee non-conference games. Everyone around the program knew that even one win against any of those teams could highlight their season resume come March, and the more wins they could collect, the higher their national profile would become. Unfortunately, they’re 0-4 in those games so far, and I’ve yet to meet the man (or woman) who gives them anything greater than a puncher’s chance in game number five.
Of all the sobering realizations that have materialized over the season’s first nine games, perhaps this is the most infuriating: with a loss on Saturday, the Jays will have completely squandered their greatest opportunity for national recognition in the non-conference season in years. The excitement of August when a schedule including three ranked teams was released has given way to the disappointment of a team that has lost every big game, finding new maddening methods of doing so every time out.
Their only wins have come at home against a rogues gallery: Florida A&M, Arkansas Little-Rock, Nebraska and Savannah State. They blew late leads on the road at Dayton and George Mason, blew a late lead and lost in overtime to Michigan in Orlando, got blown out by Xavier in Orlando, and didn’t even bother showing up in losing to Iona in Orlando. Their non-conference is on the verge of being an unmitigated disaster.
All of that leaves them in a familiar predicament: having all of their non-conference eggs in one basket, with one chance for a marquee win, one chance of impressing the pundits.
That game takes place in one of the toughest places for visiting teams to win: The Pit in Albuquerque. It takes place against a team coached by a guy who Jays fans have had a decade-and-a-half feud with. It takes place against a team who was beaten by the Jays in the season opener last year in Omaha — and who has expressed their desire to avenge that loss. All of those things would be tough enough to overcome, but when the opponent also happens to be the 19th ranked team in America with two eye-opening wins on its resume, you have the first game in years that most Jays fans not only don’t believe their team can win, but that many fans believe will turn into a blowout.
New Mexico is the polar opposite of the Jays last opponent, Savannah State, who was the worst shooting team in Division 1 averaging 51 points per game. The Lobos are one of the nation’s best, averaging 83.5 points a game. They shoot an average of 47% from the floor, 42% from three-point range, and have three players averaging in double figures. They own wins over Cal and Texas A&M, both of whom were ranked at the time of the game, and are the nation’s only 11-0 team. Their 11 wins have come by an average margin of 17 points.
Perhaps more distressing is that the Lobos turn the ball over just 10 times a game, while the Jays have shown a propensity to play loose with the ball in hostile environments — and there is no more hostile environment than The Pit.
Officially named University Arena, “The Pit” as it is colloquially called is quite literally a pit, with the floor 37 feet below grade level. The stands have a steep pitch that holds sound in remarkably well; The Pit has measured time after time as the loudest arena in college basketball (sorry, Duke, you lose this one.) A reading of 118 decibels at a game in 1999 is good enough to be named the loudest, but New Mexico’s official record book claims a reading of 125 at a game in the early ’90s — which is louder than a rock concert (115), and the same as standing on an airport tarmac during takeoff (an activity that OSHA requires ear plugs to be worn for). So, you know, its can get pretty damn loud.
The Lobos, combined with their arena and their rabid fans, could well be the toughest task the Jays have faced all year. It may well end in yet another loss. If Creighton had played an easier schedule like many of their fellow MVC teams, you can be sure they’d have a bunch more wins — but where would that get them? Another season of inflated hopes for an at-large bid? At least this year, everyone knows what the goal has to be (winning in St. Louis). And maybe these early-season losses can make the team tougher come conference play.
Incidentally, this is me trying REALLY hard to be positive when there are so few reasons to be.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Steve Alford has a 7-7 record against Dana Altman. He was 1-1 against him at Iowa, 6-5 against him at SMS, and is 0-1 against Dana at New Mexico. His temper is not what it once was (who can forget his legendary tirades at the referees at the Civic?), but Jays’ fans collective tempers get ratcheted up just having him on the opposing bench. Why is that? Two words: Nerijus Karlikanovas. Do some research, it will be highly entertaining … Roman Martinez leads the Lobos in scoring at 17 per game, and also leads the Mountain West with 40 three-pointers made (a shot he hits almost 55% of the time). Martinez is not the most athletically gifted player on the team, but does a lot of things very well on both ends of the court and is the team leader. In games I’ve seen, the team feeds off of him … JuCo transfer Darington Hobson is the Lobos second banana. Hobson averages 16.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists a game, which is a frightening line because those are the numbers for a team’s second option? Holy. Schneykeys. I felt bad about this game BEFORE I scouted them. Now I feel terrible … Hobson played for former Bluejay Al Huss in high school. For the record, that is the first Big Al Huss reference on White & Blue Review. I’ve been trying for months to do it, and today is that day. I’m excited, I can’t lie … I’m obligated to tell you that the Lobos are outrebounding their opponents by an average of 6 a game, because rebounding has been the Jays achilles heel for a couple of years; however, it has secretly become the LEAST of the worries for this year’s team. The Jays are +0.2 on the boards for the season. Do not lie to yourself: in October you would have been ecstatic to learn the Jays would be even on the glass through nine games. You would have. Not that I can read your mind or anything, but its a fair assumption … The Lobos turn the ball over just 10 times a game, so the Jays press will probably not be terribly effective at taking away possessions. The bigger worry is how the Jays will deal with the Lobos defensive pressure.
The Last Time They Played: Creighton won 82-75 over the Lobos last year in Omaha. New Mexico led for a significant chunk of the game by double-digits before wilting in the last five minutes, making some costly turnovers and failing to make shots. Sound familiar? These things do not just happen to Creighton, folks. And sometimes, Creighton is the beneficiary of them. Not that this makes anyone feel better, mind you, but it is a fact. You bet.
Re-reading my summary of that game last year made me angry. Sounds rather exciting. Sounds like two good teams battling in an entertaining contest. We’re nine games in and I’ve yet to witness a game like that this year. So. Much. Sadness.
Gratuitous Linkage: Hot Tub Time Machine is the name of an actual movie. It stars John Cusack and Rob Corddry, and it looks like the sort of movie that will be FREAKING GREAT when its on HBO on some random Saturday afternoon, but be a waste of money for $9 at the theater. If I was writing that movie, there would be a “James Brown Celebrity Hot Tub” reference in it but since I didn’t write the movie, don’t count on it. Whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing is purely subjective…
Official Gametime Snack: If the game on Wednesday against Savannah State was an Ol’ 96er Game — the amount of beer I had to consume during and after to try to distract myself from the horror of watching that despicable effort was directly proportional to the Ol’ 96er Steak that John Candy devoured in “The Great Outdoors” — Saturday’s tilt will be less so. No one believes the Jays will win this game. Many think they won’t even play well enough to be competitive. So have a nice evening. Wings and a responsible amount of beer. You bet.
The Totally Random Song I’d Play Right Now if I was Still a Radio DJ:
I don’t play nearly enough 80s metal in this space. I will rectify this today with an obscure track from a band that I always thought should have been bigger than they were: Krokus. Loved these guys. And I love the cheesy visual effects in this video for “Screaming in the Night.” Ah, Krokus. You bet.
Prediction: This one could get ugly. Last year, a better Jays team was losing by SIXTEEN before the crowd willed them back into the game. They will have no such advantage this time. If Ramon Martinez and Darington Hobson get going, the Jays will lose by 20+.
I can’t remember the last time I wrote that, because I don’t believe I ever have.
New Mexico 87, Creighton 68
