Despite all of the struggles Creighton has endured in February, the final week shapes up exactly as you’d have hoped it would back in November: two games to decide the title. They trail Wichita State by one game (WSU is 12-4 in the league, CU 11-5), but by virtue of a tougher non-conference SOS, Creighton would secure the #1 seed in Arch Madness if they tie for the championship with the Shockers. To do that, they need to beat Wichita on Saturday. And for that game to matter, they need to beat Bradley tonight.
The matchup with Bradley is one fraught with mismatches on both sides. For the Jays, their guards have, over the last six weeks, become very careless with the basketball. That’s a problem because Bradley has 283 steals on the season, an outrageous average of 9.76 a game, which puts them on pace for the fourth-most steals in a season in the 106-year history of the Valley. Their starting guards, Dyricus Simms-Edwards and Walt Lemon, Jr., gather over half of those steals — Simms-Edwards has 81, while Lemon has 66.
The Braves have 110 more steals than their opposition, and have a +100 turnover margin for the season. With an average of 9.76 extra possessions a game thanks to those steals — a big reason they’ve attempted a whopping 121 more shots than their opponents — how is Bradley “just” 16-13? Seems like they’d be a lot better than that, doesn’t it? Here’s why: the Braves have been outscored by 47 points from 3-point range and 37 points from the free throw line, while being outrebounded by 2.4 boards per game. They shoot just 32% from three-point range (8th best in the MVC), 43.6% from the floor (also 8th in the MVC) and pull down an average of 32 boards a game (6th best in the MVC, and a minus-three ratio compared to their opponents). Using words instead of math, they don’t have enough shooters to take advantage of all the extra possessions they get, and they don’t rebound the ball well enough to get easy second-chance opportunities off all their missed shots.
It’s little wonder why, in these teams’ first meeting a month ago, Bradley led 30-27 at the half when Creighton relied on their guards to provide offense, playing right into Bradley’s hands. The Jays attempted 21 three-pointers in the first half, making just seven, and attempted just seven — 7! — shots inside the arc. In the second half, Creighton punished the Braves in the paint, scoring 26 of their 48 points after intermission in the paint, and thoroughly decimated them on the glass, outrebounding Bradley 18-4. Individually, Doug McDermott was a perfect 5-5 inside the arc in that second half, and Gregory Echenique was a perfect 3-3. It was a stunning show of strength, with the Jays using their size inside to counter-act Bradley’s defensive quickness in the guard court.
As if Creighton needed any further incentive to play inside tonight, Bradley’s two best big men, Will Egolf (8.7 ppg., 5.3 rpg.) and Tyshon Pickett (11.2 ppg., 5.7 rpg.) are both foul prone, and were in foul trouble most of the afternoon in Omaha. Their foul trouble hurt them on the boards and defensively, especially in the second half when the Jays really were successful scoring in the paint.
It’s perhaps overly-simplistic, but the team who better exploits their opponent’s weakness will win. For Bradley to pull the upset, they need two halves of basketball like the first half of the game in Omaha: Simms-Edwards and Lemon, Jr. using their stealing ability to intimidate Creighton’s guards into silly turnovers and passes, and denying entry passes to the paint so that Creighton has to rely on jump shots.
For Creighton to emerge victorious and set up Championship Saturday, they need two halves of basketball like the second half of the game in Omaha: taking care of the basketball, getting the ball inside every possession to allow their big men to take high-percentage shots, and making enough threes to keep the defense honest while not attempting so many that they become reliant on them.
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Following Saturday’s loss at Saint Mary’s, coach Greg McDermott laid it on the line, telling the radio postgame audience, “I told our guys, our two best days of practice of the year have to be Monday and Tuesday.” I don’t think his choice of words was accidental. Earlier in the year, or even earlier this month, it wouldn’t have been uncommon to hear Coach Mac use the word need in that sentence, as in the two days leading up to tonight need to be their best two days of practice. His tone was different this time; I noticed it immediately when he spoke with T. Scott and Nick Bahe on the AM590 postgame show. It was the sound of a coach who knows the final week is all up-ons, and it’s time to get to work.
And according to reports in the World-Herald and from first-hand accounts relayed to me from people who attended practice the last two days, that’s exactly what’s happened. Outstanding.
One game at a time, two wins to the title, you bet.
Catching up with the Braves: Wednesday night is the final regular-season home game in the careers of four Bradley seniors: Jake Eastman, Will Egolf, Milos Knezevic and Dyricus Simms-Edwards … The Braves bring a 12-3 home record into Wednesday’s game and will be trying to secure a 13th regular-season home win for just the seventh time in Carver Arena’s 31-year history … Bradley needs one more victory to secure a winning record for the first time since 2009-10 (16-15) … With a win, Bradley would stay in the hunt for a top-half finish in the MVC standings and maintain at least a tie for sixth place with one game remaining in the regular-season … With a loss, Bradley would suffer its ninth regular-season sweep by Creighton in this millennium.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: In the last 34 meetings between the schools, Creighton is 17-1 when holding Bradley to 65 points or less but 8-9 when it allows more than 65 points … Creighton has also won the last 26 meetings when it scores 70 points or more against BU … Grant Gibbs is well on his way to leading the MVC in assists for a second-straight season, something that hasn’t been done since Illinois State’s Jamar Smiley topped the Valley in three straight campaigns from 1995-98 … Gibbs 166 assists are seventh-most in Creighton single-season history … Last season Creighton made its first 11 field goal attempts to start the second half at Bradley, not missing until a Grant Gibbs three-point try went awry at the 10:44 mark. For the game, Creighton shot 61.1 percent, its best mark on the road since shooting 61.9 percent at Wichita State on Feb. 16, 2005 … Creighton has played in front of 11 sellout crowds this season (7 at home, as well as road games at Nebraska, Wichita State, Northern Iowa and Saint Mary’s). Last year’s Creighton team played in front of 10 capacity crowds.
The RUN-DMD Show: As a freshman, Doug McDermott had a career-high 17 rebounds at Bradley. Last season, he poured in a career-best 44 points in his annual trip to Carver Arena. McDermott will play his third career contest in Peoria. McDermott’s 44 point outburst last season was the most in Peoria by a visiting Bradley opponent since Oscar Robertson (1960) and the most by any Valley player since 1999. McDermott made his first 10 shots after halftime and was 18-of-23 for the game to tie the record for field goals made by a Bradley opponent. His 18 field goals are one shy of the Creighton record for field goals in a game, and were the most by a Bluejay since Benoit Benjamin in 1985.
The Last Time They Played: On February 2, Creighton beat Bradley 75-58 as Austin Chatman scored a career-high 16 points. The Jays led most of the first half before a half-ending 9-2 Bradley run put them behind 30-27 at the intermission. After getting outrebounded 20-15 in the first half, they dominated the glass 18-4 in the second, part of a concentrated effort to control the paint.
The Series: Wednesday’s game will be the 87th meeting in the all-time series between Bradley and Creighton and the 79th meeting since the Bluejays joined The Valley for the 1975-76 season. Creighton leads the all-time series with Bradley by a narrow 45-41 margin, but are just 16-25 all-time in Peoria.
Greg McDermott is 10-8 all-time against Bradley (2-6 in road games), and is 3-0 against Geno Ford. Ford is 0-3 vs. Creighton.
Gratuitous Linkage: The Peoria Journal-Star’s Dave Reynolds had an interesting blog entry yesterday explaining Creighton’s huge jump in the non-conference SOS, with great quotes from both Gregg Marshall and RPI Report (the poll the MVC uses) creator Jim Sukup.
This Date in Creighton Hoops History: On February 27, 1999, Creighton beat Illinois State 68-63 in the quarterfinals of Arch Madness, en route to the first MVC tourney title of the Altman Era. A strange game where Rodney Buford couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn (going 2-10 from the floor with just 4 points in 33 minutes) and Ben Walker had six turnovers, the Jays erased a six-point halftime deficit thanks to Nerijus Karlikanovas and Corie Brandon. Karlikanovas went 5-8 from the field, and 2-3 from downtown, while Brandon went 4-8 from three-point range to lead a big second-half comeback.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day: How big is this game? It’s time to bust out Archie, a powerful weapon the Polyfro Primer takes seriously and therefore wields rarely.
The Bottom Line: One of our loyal readers suggested to me on Twitter this week that to break the Jays’ funk, I should pick against them in this game. I thought about it. Brother, did I think about it. But they’re winning this game, pick or no pick, so here goes.
Creighton 76, Bradley 68