The last time Evansville visited Omaha, they very nearly spoiled Senior Night by pushing the Jays to the brink of upset, with Creighton prevailing in overtime 93-92. The two schools have played a ton of tight games over the years (in 37 all-time meetings, less than half — 16 — have been decided by more than 10 points) but since Colt Ryan arrived in Evansville, things have gotten even tighter. All but one game in his three seasons have been decided by single digits, and he’s a big reason for that. Ryan has set a career-high in points in three of the seven meetings, scoring 26, 31, 16, 20, 14, 43 and 13 points for an average of 23.3 points per game. Perhaps more impressively, the guard has also made at least 50 percent of his field goal attempts in five of those seven games.
So it’s with a measure of relief that Saturday night will be the final time he takes the floor in Omaha, given his history of torching Creighton’s defense. Without a doubt, he’ll be the player to watch for the Aces — if he gets stupid hot like he did a year ago, when he made 17-24 from the floor en route to an arena record 43 points, we could be looking at a second-straight season where Creighton loses the conference opener at home.
It may be overly simplistic to say this game comes down to keeping Colt Ryan from going off for 35+ points, but him doing so is Evansville’s best chance at pulling the upset, so I’m certain I won’t be the only Bluejay fan who loses sleep tonight as visions of Ryan raining in three-pointers from all corners of the gym turn my dreams into nightmares. He’s tailor-made for being a Creighton nemesis — a team with a penchant for allowing guards to have career nights against one of the best pure shooters in America.
Here’s what will allow me to brush off those nightmares (hopefully!): his teams have beaten Creighton just one time in his career, despite him having terrific individual performances. That’s indicative of the lack of quality players surrounding him — something Creighton finally exploited in their third meeting a year ago.
After allowing Ryan to blow up their defense in Omaha, they made some defensive adjustments for the rematch in St. Louis. Those changes included putting more pressure on the ball, aggressively switching on ball screens, and in the process, they made it difficult for Colt Ryan and Denver Holmes’ to make the Jays pay for mistakes. “We gave up a few easy baskets,” Coach McDermott told the media after that game, “but I understood going in that that was going to happen to take away some of the other things we were trying to take away from Holmes and Ryan.”
Indeed, they gave up a few easy buckets in the paint, but it was a worthwhile trade-off to stifle the Aces’ sharpshooters from outside. And they went deeper into their bench than normal. “We felt we had a little more depth and we could keep fresh guys on Colt Ryan and Denver Holmes,” Coach McDermott said later, “and they don’t have another Colt Ryan or Denver Holmes coming off the bench to do what those guys do.”
Unfortunately, the Aces are a bit deeper this year — the drop-off when Ryan and his fellow starters, Troy Taylor and Ned Cox, leave the game is no longer as steep. While Holmes graduated and is no longer around to compliment Ryan, Cox remains a viable offensive weapon. He’s scored in double figures in nine out of 12 games this season, and is second on the team with 11.6 points per game. When either of those two sub out, freshman D.J. Balentine has proved more than capable of filling their shoes. He scored 26 points against Colorado State and has made more than 40 percent from three-point range for the season while playing nearly 24 minutes a game off the bench. Balentine is a confident shooter, especially for a true freshman, and gives them an instant offensive spark when one of the starting guards needs a breather — something they didn’t have a year ago.
Marty Simmons has recruited solid guards in rebuilding the Evansville program, but has struggled to find interior players. They hope they’ve finally found a solid post presence in 6’10”, 225 pound freshman Egidijus Mockevicius, who was a member of Lithuania’s U20 team. 12 games into his career he’s already supplanted Ryan Sawvill as their starting center, and has shown signs of being the kind of physical big man the Aces have lacked for a long time. Case in point: Kenneth Harris led the Aces in blocks a year ago with 19 on the season, and Mockevicius has 14 already this year. He’s also shown nice range and efficiency offensively, connecting on 25 of 37 shots on the season.
As Simmons’ teams typically do, this version of the Aces plays primarily man-to-man defense, even when facing a sensational offensive player like Notre Dame’s Jack Cooley or Murray State’s Isaiah Canaan (or, presumably, Doug McDermott). He trusts his players to switch through screens and help each other cut off dribble penetration, and for the most part, they do a good job of it, as they give up an average of just 62.5 points a game. They allow opponents to shoot just 44% from the floor and 32% from three-point range.
It seems likely that Creighton will win the battle on the glass, as Evansville has consistently been beaten by 10 or more against teams with dominant post players (Notre Dame was +10 on the glass, Murray State was +11, Butler was +10, and Colorado State was +19). Those four games are probably more indicative of their actual prowess on the boards; their season average of -1 is pretty heavily skewed by a series of cupcake games surrounding those four tough ones. As such, rebounding is a good predictor of the outcome: this season when the Aces out-rebound the opposition, they are a perfect 5-0, but when they are on the losing end of that stat, they are just 2-5.
Catching up with the Purple Aces: Evansville is set to begin its 19th season as a member of the Missouri Valley Conference; since entering the league in the 1994-95 campaign, the Aces have posted a 136-188 record in league play, a .420 winning percentage … UE has played just three games in the span of 20 days; meanwhile Creighton has not played since defeating Tulsa on Dec. 19 … Colt Ryan notched a season-high 25 points against Butler while notching 5 assists, 5 steals and 5 rebounds, the second time in his career he has notched at least five of each … With an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.38, UE is 17th in the nation … The Aces have been credited with an assist on 64% of its baskets in 2012, best in the MVC and 15th in the country … Evansville’s bench has outscored its opponents bench by a 355-212 margin this season, an average of 11.9 PPG.
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: Each of Creighton’s first 12 games have been decided by 10 or more points; their 11 double-digit wins this year trail only Pittsburgh nationally (12) … Austin Chatman had some of his best performances of his freshman season against the Aces, scoring 11 points in 13 minutes at Evansville on Feb. 7th, and dishing out seven assists in 20 minutes during CU’s MVC Tournament romp over the Purple Aces on March 3rd … Creighton can wrap up an unbeaten December with a victory over Evansville; since 1946-47, Creighton’s only two teams to go unbeaten in December were in 2003 and 2008 … Creighton was 11-1 heading into its Christmas break, just the fourth time in program history the Jays own 10 or more wins by Dec. 25th, and the first to ever reach 11 victories before Christmas.
The RUN-DMD Show: Doug McDermott has been named MVC Player of the Week four times this season. Most recently, McDermott was honored on Dec. 17th after scoring 34 points and hauling down nine rebounds in a win at Cal on Dec. 15th. He was also named National Player of the Week by Seth Davis (CBS/Sports Illustrated) and the USBWA for that performance.
McDermott now owns nine career MVC Player of the Week honors, something only Bradley great Hersey Hawkins (14) can top. Including his seven MVC Newcomer of the Week honors in 2010-11, McDermott has won at least one weekly award from the MVC in 16 of 39 weeks since enrolling at Creighton.
The Last Time They Played: Gregory Echenique had 20 points and nine rebounds to lead Creighton to a 99-71 win over Evansville in the semifinals of the MVC Tournament last March. They jumped out to a 7-0 lead out of the gate, then used a 14-2 run mid-way through the first half to put the game out of reach. That run featured a pair of threes from Josh Jones and another from Grant Gibbs; the lead would never be less than 12 the rest of the day.
The Series: Creighton leads the all-time series with Evansville by a 27-10 margin, including a 15-2 mark in Omaha. The Purple Aces have lost 13 straight games in Omaha since a January 4, 1999 victory over the Jays. Greg McDermott is 11-5 against Evansville (4-1 as Creighton head coach) and 4-1 against Marty Simmons at the Division I level. Simmons is 2-9 against Creighton.
Creighton is 1-1 all-time when opening league play against Evansville, topping the Purple Aces in 1995-96 but falling at the buzzer in 2004-05.
Gratuitous Linkage: There’s been a lot of great articles penned in the aftermath of Josh Jones “retirement” from basketball earlier this week, but this one from Sean Keeler of Fox Sports Midwest might be my favorite. Jones’ quotes are at once eloquent, heartfelt and mature — it’s a touching piece and a must-read.
This Date in Creighton Hoops History: On December 29, 1989, Creighton played Drake in the Rainbow Classic — there were no rules against multiple teams from the same conference competing in the same exempt tourney back then — and prevailed, 77-71. That March they avoided Drake in the MVC Tournament, thus missing out on the rare opportunity to play the same team four times in one season. For the record, the Jays won two of the three matchups.
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day: It’s time for conference play. Buckle up.
The Bottom Line: Colt Ryan will not play another game in Omaha, which is enough reason to celebrate. The outcome will add to the joy.
Jays 79, Evansville 63