With Wichita State’s loss yesterday in Des Moines, its possible to look at things and say, “Wow, second and third place are there for the taking!” And its true that after tonight’s game, four teams will be tied for third place at 5-4 — Drake, Bradley, Illinois State, and the winner of Creighton vs Missouri State. The Shockers are just a game ahead at 6-3.
I’d like to say that. But until this team wins a road game against someone other than the winless Evansville Aces, I’m not going to say this team can finish in second place, despite what the standings look like. Fact is, the final ten MVC games are an even split between home and road games, five each way. Its not crazy to think the Jays win out at home; even with their massive struggles this year, they’ve played well enough to win (even when its been with smoke and mirrors) at home. But on the road? They’ve got trips to Carbondale, Des Moines, Cedar Falls, Peoria and Springfield left. How many of those do they win?
Optimistically, they win two. Optimistically.
Those are some tough venues even for good Creighton teams, but should they manage to win two they’re 11-7 in the league, 16-13 overall (excluding the bracket buster). That MIGHT be good enough for third place this year, or fourth at the worst. But will they really win two road games? I’m going to go out on a limb here and say no.
This isn’t a lost season yet, because St. Louis always offers the hope of the inexplicable happening. But even the eternal optimist (me) has to admit when things look pretty bad in the regular season. How bad?
If the season ended today, the loser of tonight’s game would find itself in the play-in round on Thursday in St. Louis. Hahahahaha! This is no joke, and that’s not laugher due to comedy. Its laughter to keep from being really upset. The play-in round eliminates the inexplicable from happening — nobody is winning four games in four days, least of all this Creighton team — and if that’s the fate, this season REALLY becomes depressing.
So lets root hard for the Jays to win out at home, steal one on the road somewhere, and avoid that fate. And do me a favor: Root extra hard tonight, because for the first time since February of 2003, I’ll not be at the Qwest for a MVC game. That’s right, the super fan who hasn’t missed a game in seven years is taking one off. This is good news for you, because with me not there, it means there’s a chance the PBR keg won’t run out this game!
One Big Paragraph with Lots O’Dots™: After an 11-20 season last year, Missouri State opened this campaign with 10 straight wins and enters tonight’s game with a 14-5 record … With their 14-5 start, the Bears have an opportunity to match the school’s best 20-game record during its Division I era. Missouri State has started 15-5 six previous times since 1982-83, most recently in 2007-08 … Missouri State overcame a flurry of second-half three-pointers by visiting Indiana State to score a 99-92 overtime win at home Tuesday, snapping a two-game losing streak … The Bears have lost seven straight games to the Bluejays and have only eclipsed 70 points just once in the last 10 meetings (12/30/06). The last MSU win in Omaha was a 79-71 victory on 2/5/05, the squad’s only win at the Qwest Center … Missouri State’s Adam Leonard is targeting a milestone 40th consecutive game with at least one three-pointer. His current 39-game three-point streak dates back to Dec. 17, 2007 and includes his last 20 games at Eastern Kentucky … Kyle Weems is the only MSU player to score in double figures all 19 games this season. He has posted 10 or more points in 20 straight games dating back to last season and in 28 of the last 30 contests overall … Sophomore Kyle Weems leads the team in scoring with 15 points per game, rebounding with 5 boards per game, and steals with 1.5 per game, while also making 46% of his three-point shots … Eastern Kentucky transfer Adam Leonard averages just shy of 13 points per game and has made a team-best 53 three-point shots. Leonard went over 1,000 career points in Tuesday’s 99-92 overtime win over Indiana State … The Bears lead the MVC in scoring offense (73.4 ppg.) and allow just 66.1 per contest. MSU shoots 45.2 percent from the field, 38.2 percent from three-point range and 74.3 percent at the line. The Bears also outrebound teams by 1.5 caroms per contest.
The Last Time They Played: Creighton won 65-59 last February in Springfield, their ninth straight victory in a late-season rally. Casey Harriman scored 10 points in the final 7:21 to key a second half comeback, as the Bluejays trailed by 13 just after halftime.
The Series: Creighton has won the last seven meetings to claim a 29-22 lead over Missouri State in the series. The Bluejays own a 16-3 record against MSU at home, including wins in eight of the last nine encounters in Omaha.
Creighton has won 22 of the last 29 games with Missouri State, and eight of its last 13 wins in the series have been by six points or less.
Gratuitous Linkage: This website has been out there for a while, but it always entertains me. People of Wal-Mart.com. Pretty self-explanatory, isn’t it? Look closely and you might even find a photo or two submitted by yours truly during my shopping excursions to the Low Price home…
The Totally Random Song I’d Play Right Now if I was Still a Radio DJ: Van Halen failed us on Wednesday after delivering two straight wins, so I’m thinking its time for a little trip through the Rocky IV Motion Picture Soundtrack. We’ll start today with Survivor’s “Burning Heart”, and keep it coming during what we hope is a winning streak. If you want to see James Brown, hope for a Jays win tonight.
The Pick: The home court makes all the difference tonight. Creighton is 8-1 at home this year, and 1-9 on the road (or on neutral courts). Casey Harriman is going to revisit his big game against the Bears last year, hit three triples, and lead the Jays to a win.
Creighton 74, Missouri State 65