St. John’s won just one Big East conference game a year ago, and preseason predictions for another last place finish appeared on-track when they lost five straight in November. The last of those was a humiliating home loss to Delaware State (#338 in KenPom), and after losing to LIU Brooklyn (#281) a couple weeks later, whispers about the state of Chris Mullin’s program were getting louder.
That makes what’s transpired over the last two weeks all the more remarkable. They went on the road and handed Syracuse their worst home loss of the 40-year Jim Boeheim Era, a 93-60 thrashing that left Carrier Dome fans booing the Orange’s effort. Then they upset #13 Butler 76-73 for their first win over a ranked team at Carnesecca Arena since 1998, rallying from 10 points down in the second half to stun the Bulldogs. And over the weekend, they picked up a 79-73 road win at DePaul to move them to 2-0 in the league for the first time in six years. Suddenly instead of a sure-fire cellar-dweller, the Red Storm are a dangerous team off to a great start on their “Big East Revenge Tour”.
The Johnnies have made a Big East-best 149 3-pointers (just under 10 per game), and they have four players that shoot 40% or better from behind the arc. They’re one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country at 40.2% (16th in D1), and they take a lot of them — 41.2% of their shot attempts come from outside (66th most in D1), and 38% of their points come via three-pointers (30th most). They’ve only had one game all year where they attempted fewer than 20 three-point shots, and only two games where they made fewer than seven.
Usually when you take that many jump shots you don’t get fouled as often, but St. John’s attempts 21 free throws a game, putting them in the middle of the pack in the Big East, and they shoot 71% from the line. They do live-and-die by the three to some extent (though they managed to beat #13 Butler in a game where they shot horribly from outside — they made just four of 16 against the Bulldogs — because they were 23-34 on all other shots). In their seven losses, they’ve shot 34% from outside with an average of eight made threes per game, and in their eight wins, they’ve shot 45.5% with an average of 11 made threes. That’s a big difference.
The Johnnies have three players averaging double-figures in points, and all three are newcomers: freshmen Shamorie Ponds (17.7 ppg., 5.3 rpg., 3.4 apg., 2.0 spg.) and Marcus LoVett (16.6 ppg., 3.9 rpg., 4.1 apg.), and junior college transfer Bashir Ahmed (13.0 ppg., 5.7 rpg.).
Ponds, a Top 50 recruit who was the Big East Preseason rookie of the year, has been sensational — he doesn’t commit many turnovers, plays almost 35 minutes a game, and has scored in double figures in every game except for his debut. He had 21 points, six rebounds and seven assists in their win at Syracuse, and had 26 points — 19 in the second half — in their win over Butler. He was 6-9 from the floor in that second half, connecting on a slew of midrange jumpers created off the dribble, and also went a perfect 4-4 from the line in the final seconds. He hit huge baskets late, including this one to cut Butler’s lead to two:
He followed that up with 15 points and four steals — the fifth time this year he’s had as many as four steals in a game — in their win at DePaul.
St. John’s hoped that Marcus LoVett would be a freshman standout last year, but after being dubbed a partial qualifier by the NCAA, he was forced to sit out. Finally on the court this year, LoVett has emerged as a capable second banana to Ponds, and averages 16.6 points per game. An adept scorer from all over the floor, LoVett had 31 points against Minnesota in mid-November and has scored in double figures in 11 of the 12 games he’s played in. He missed three games in December with a minor injury, and though he’s generally been a starter, he scored 22 off the bench against DePaul over the weekend.
JuCo transfer Bashir Ahmed has kind of flown under the radar, but if his production of late continues, he won’t be under the radar for long. In their first two Big East games, he’s combined to score 33 points and 10 rebounds, and made four 3-pointers in the win over DePaul.
Their backcourt has been a bright spot on the offensive side of the ball, but their frontcourt is a different story. Tariq Owens (41 blocks) and Kassoum Yakwe (38 blocks) headline a front line that leads the Big East in blocked shots, and their best defense is often to simply swat away an opponent’s shot. Neither is much of a threat offensively, both because their guards struggle to get them the ball, and because they’re just not all that great at scoring the basketball. To wit: Owens and Yakwe both average about three shot attempts a game each. Not made shots. Attempts.
Ahmed, at 6’7”, 210 pounds, is their only legit scoring option in the frontcourt. A team that really only generates offense from their guards has led to a lot of offensive inconsistencies (and dry spells during games): when St. John’s struggles to get points on the perimeter, they don’t have much of an inside game to lean on. Ahmed and Yakwe play the most minutes in the frontcourt and are the starters, meaning they’ll be giving up five inches in height and at least that much in wingspan to Justin Patton; even when the 6’11” Owens is in the game off the bench, he’ll be looking up at the Bluejay center, and at a slight 200 pounds he makes the skinny Patton look positively Echenique-esque.
The key for Creighton, then, is to keep Ponds and LoVett from torching the nets from outside, or at the very least, make enough themselves from the perimeter to cancel out their scoring. CU should have a marked advantage inside with Patton offensively, because St. John’s is probably not going to get much production from their bigs.
If Creighton does that and keeps St. John’s off the glass so they can run in transition, this should be a 8-10 point win. If St. John’s gets huge games from Ponds and/or LoVett, the Jays shoot poorly, and CU gets massacred on the boards — all very possible — the Johnnies could very well pull the upset.
Quick Notes on the Red Storm:
- Among their returning players, Federico Mussini (9.7 ppg.) and Malik Ellison (7.5 ppg.) lead the way. Ellison scored 17 points with six boards in last year’s meeting in Queens, and went a perfect 6-6 from the line; Mussini was 1-5 from three-point range and 0-3 on two’s in that game. According to a report from Jon Rothstein, Mussini is a gametime decision tonight as he’s suffering from an infection. If he can’t go, the Johnnies lose their second-best three-pointer shooter and have 21 minutes off the bench to replace — and Ponds and LoVett already play over 30 minutes a game.
- Creighton is only the second top-10 nationally ranked team St. John’s has hosted at Carnesecca Arena in the past decade. Last season, #10 Xavier beat the Johnnies in Queens 74-66. Prior to that, St. John’s last top-10 opponent at Carnesecca Arena was on January 22, 2005 when the Red Storm met #9 Boston College. St. John’s has not defeated a top-10 team on its home court in Queens in more than four decades since topping #7 Tennessee, 79-70, on December 9, 1975.
Bluejay Bytes:
- Creighton entered Monday tied for third nationally with four top-50 RPI wins, per figures on WarrenNolan.com. Baylor and Florida State had five top-50 wins, while Creighton joined Villanova, Butler, Kansas and Clemson with four top-50 wins. Even more promising for CU that its win over Wisconsin is not counted among that, as the Badgers are No. 53 in that RPI calculation. Creighton’s strength of schedule currently ranks 13th.
- Creighton has won its first five games away from home for just the third time since World War II, having also done it in 1999-2000 and 2012-13. Their five road wins have come by an average of 15.8 points per game.
- Creighton’s 13-0 start was its sixth streak of 13 straight wins or more all-time, and Creighton’s longest winning streak since Tom Apke’s 1974-75 club won 14 straight. They’re 4-1 all-time in the game after having a winning streak of 13 or longer snapped, losing only in 1975 when it dropped three in a row after that 14-gamer.
The Series:
St. Johns leads the series 7-6, including a 6-1 mark in New York. The Jays’ only win at St. John’s came last January, when they opened Big East play with an 80-70 win on New Years Eve.
Greg McDermott is 4-2 against St. John’s, and 2-0 against Chris Mullin.
The Last Time They Played:
Last February, Creighton smoked St. John’s by 41 in their regular season home finale, led by 22 points and 11 boards from Geoff Groselle and 19 points from James Milliken. From WBR’s recap:
“Creighton’s Senior Day scrap with last-place St. John’s was so one-sided that Chris Mullin didn’t even stick around for the final buzzer. The Red Storm’s first-year head coach drew his second technical foul of the game, then had to be restrained by several of his assistants while he unleashed a profanity-laced tirade towards the officials before heading for the tunnel with 13:42 remaining in the contest. The Bluejays (18-11, 9-7) led by 33 points when Mullin bowed out and they would go on to post a 100-59 victory to close out their final home game on the 2015-16 regular season schedule.”
Gratuitous Linkage:
The NY Post’s Zach Braziller writes that freshman Shamorie Ponds is shocking everyone except those who know him:
“Lawrence Pollard laughed at the question — “Has Shamorie Ponds’ fast start surprised you?” — because that’s what the Thomas Jefferson High School coach does when he believes there’s an obvious answer.
Though St. John’s smooth freshman guard has been a national surprise, emerging as one of the best first-year perimeter players in the country, Pollard has seen this all before.
“Last year in the City of Palms [Classic] against Lonzo Ball and those guys, Shamorie gave that guy 40 [points],” Pollard recalled. “The guy consistently dominated all top competition.”
What the Other Side is Saying:
“Shooting the basketball well gives any team a chance to win games. Creighton is arguably the best all-around shooting team in the country. If St. John’s can limit the Bluejays offensive output, they will have an opportunity to grab a program changing victory. It may be unlikely, but beating Creighton is certainly not impossible.”
–St. John’s vs Creighton Game Preview, Rumble In The Garden
This Date in Creighton Hoops History:
On January 4, 2014, Creighton won their first-ever Big East road game with a 79-66 triumph at Seton Hall. Doug McDermott scored 11 of the Jays’ first 13 points, and wound up with 22 points, seven rebounds, two assists and a steal in the first half alone, including these two:
https://vine.co/v/hY5q3ThaOM1
Completely Random, Totally Rad Music Video of the Day:
The Bottom Line:
Creighton has scored 94.8 points per game in five road/neutral contests this season, shooting 55.1 percent from the floor and 52.1 percent from three-point range. CU has averaged 12.6 three-pointers per game away from home this season, and Cole Huff has been especially lethal in those games, shooting 15-of-23 from three-point range.
Huff has a huge game tonight, and Creighton wins, though it’s tight throughout.
Bluejays 84, Red Storm 73