When the season tipped off on November 9, there was an understanding among just about everyone with a vested interest in Bluejay hoops — coaches, players, fans — that the 2021-22 season would be a roller-coaster. The hope was that there would be more highs than lows, and that by the middle of February they’d have done enough to give themselves a chance to earn a postseason bid in the final stretch of the season.
“I always talk about wanting to play meaningful games in February — and our games are meaningful,” coach Greg McDermott said this week. “So we’ll see what happens. But at least we’re in a spot where it matters.”
Playing meaningful games in February. It’s a phrase we’ve heard McDermott say time after time in his 12 years on the Bluejay bench, especially in seasons where he had a young/rebuilding roster. How’s this for meaningful games? Six straight Quad 1 or Quad 2 games to end the regular season, giving a Creighton team in need of a strong finish to solidify an NCAA Tourney bid the perfect opportuntity to provide the selection committee with a compelling closing argument.
It starts with tonight’s road game against DePaul (NET ranking: #104). It’s followed by Marquette in Omaha (#29), road games at St. John’s (#90) and Providence (#31), and home games against UConn (#18) and Seton Hall (#33).
KenPom’s game-by-game overview predicts the Jays to go 1-5 in those six games, but three of them are toss-ups with either 49% or 50/50 odds of victory. Their predictive record is actually 3-3, “based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game.”
Three wins in those six games would give them a 19-11 record heading into the Big East Tourney, a 7-10 record in Q1 or Q2 games, and pretty good odds of earning a berth. The 2021-22 bubble is full of teams with strange resumes, and CU’s resume is well-positioned despite a low NET — their three all-caps marquee wins are unmatched by any of the teams they’re competing with a spot for, and their lone “bad” loss was a one-point defeat way back in December. Four more wins might move them off the bubble entirely and give them a stress-free Selection Sunday.
That’s quite a thing to say with a straight face for a team that fell behind Arkansas Pine Bluff 26-11 in the home opener before rallying to win, and had to dig deep to grit out a 51-44 win over Kennesaw State in the second game. To think THAT team would be talking about an NCAA Tourney bid in February would have been nuts at the time. But they’ve zig-zagged their way to a 16-8 record after 24 games, 8-5 in the Big East, and are in fourth place just a 1/2 game behind UConn for a tie for third on February 17.
It’s not nuts anymore. It’s right there in front of them, if they can grab it. Six season-defining games. And it begins tonight in Chicago.
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DePaul started 1-9 in Big East play, including a 60-47 loss in Omaha in January. They’ve been feisty in February, though, upsetting Xavier on the road 69-65, beating Georgetown, taking Providence to overtime before falling 76-73 and losing to Butler on a buzzer-beater 73-71. That’s a heckuva two-week stretch, and suddenly DePaul looks set to play the role of spoiler over the final two weeks of the season.
The Blue Demons are in the midst of playing four games in eight days; they’ll have had barely 48 hours between losing to Butler on Tuesday and battling Creighton, and will play at Seton Hall 48 hours after the CU game. But they got a lift when leading scorer Javon Freeman-Liberty returned to the lineup against Butler; he’d missed the previous seven games, including the first meeting in Omaha.
Freeman-Liberty averages 20.6 points and 7.2 rebounds a game, and it’s interesting that their improved play coincided with his absence. Is it coincidental? It’s hard to say. But Freeman-Liberty takes a lot of shots (30.4% of his team’s shots when he’s on the floor, making him one of the highest-usage players in D1 — only 80 players take more of their team’s shots). Usage rates that high are typically only found on mid-and-low major teams overly reliant on one player; among power conference teams, just nine players have taken a bigger chunk of their team’s shots than Freeman-Liberty.
The vast majority of his shots are unassisted (83% of his shots at the rim are self-created; 75% of his two-point jumpers and 45% of his threes are, as well). That’s only a problem if high usage also corresponds with poor shooting percentages, but in the two areas he typically shoots from, Freeman-Liberty has been really good. He’s made 61.7% of his shots at the rim, and 38.5% of his three-pointers. The ball may move better with him off the floor, but DePaul is probably a better team with him on it, even with him taking as many shots as he does.
David Jones is their second-leading scorer at 14.8 points per game and their leading rebounder at 7.6 boards, and shouldered the offensive load during the seven games Freeman-Liberty missed. But he’s been wildly inconsistent; for every good game (10 points and 8 rebounds in the win over Xavier, 22 points with 13 rebounds and 10 assists against Georgetown — the first triple-double in DePaul history) he’s had games where he was not much of a factor.
The first meeting in Omaha falls in that second category. Jones was 4-of-14 from the floor for nine points, with just five rebounds. He turned it over six times. When he gets in a rhythm, he’s tough to slow down — at 6’6” he has great length for a wing, and he can score from all three levels. He has the most second-chance baskets on the team, with 24. His effective field goal percentage in transition, 65.8%, is tops on the team and reflective of his ability to get all the way to the rim when he gets into the open floor.
6’8” senior Brandon Johnson is their third player averaging in double figures at 10.7 points per game, and their third player averaging more than seven boards per game (7.2). He struggled, too, in the first game in Omaha — in 33 minutes he scored six points on 3-of-9 shooting, and grabbed just five boards.
That’s sort of the story when you only score 47 points, isn’t it? DePaul’s box score from the first game is ugly. They had just 0.72 points per possession, made just 39% of their two-pointers (16-of-41) and 23.1% of their threes (3-of-13), and didn’t get to the line very much (just nine free throw attempts). They turned it over on 24% of their possessions (16 times). Creighton did a good job of controlling the glass and forcing them into mistakes.
If they can repeat those two things tonight (probable), and avoid a long scoring drought (less probable), they’ll be on their way to a fourth-straight win.
- Tip: 9:00pm
- Venue: WinTrust Arena, Chicago, IL
- TV: CBSSN
- Announcers: Rich Waltz and Steve Lappas
- In Omaha: Cox channel 234 (SD), 1234 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 643 (SD), 1643 (HD)
- Outside Omaha: CBSSN Channel Finder
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 221; Dish Network channel 158
- Streaming info
- Radio: 1620AM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Taylor Stormberg
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- Satellite Radio: XM 381; SiriusXM app 971
- Though they average nearly 13 turnovers a game, DePaul has recorded less than 10 turnovers in back-to-back games. They had eight turnovers against Butler after committing just seven miscues in 45 minutes at Providence on Saturday.
- 6’11” Nick Ongenda averages 8.9 points and 4.3 rebounds per game, but has scored 41 points the last three games — 16 against Georgetown on 7-of-10 shooting, 11 against Providence on 5-of-8 shooting, and 14 against Butler on 6-of-12 shooting.
- Jalen Terry has scored in double figures in seven of the last eight games, and has raised his scoring average to 8.9 points per game. His 64 assists lead the team, as does his average of 3.2 assists per game.
Creighton has four road wins this season, and Ryan Hawkins has had a double-double in each of them. In those four contests, Hawkins has led CU with 21.5 points, 11.3 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game while he’s shot 49.2 percent from the field and 47.6 percent from three-point range. Ryan Kalkbrenner has averaged a double-double in those four road wins too, collecting 14.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game on 58.1 percent shooting from the floor.
Creighton has won at DePaul each of the previous eight seasons, just the second different opponent in program history that the Jays have beaten on the road in six or more consecutive campaigns. Creighton beat Grinnell in seven straight seasons from 1929-30 to 1935-36. Since the Big East reconfigured in 2013, the only other road team to be 8-0 or 9-0 against another league foe is Villanova (8-0)…coincidentally, also at DePaul.
This is the first time Creighton has tipped off in a game played in the Central Time Zone at 9 p.m. or later since exactly four years earlier when it hosted Marquette on Feb. 17, 2018 in another 9 p.m. game.
Creighton has beaten DePaul in 15 straight meetings, its longest run of victories over one opponent in more than 40 years. The only teams that Creighton has beaten more than 15 times in a row are Grinnell (18) and South Dakota (17).
In winning 20 of the last 21 meetings, CU has taken a 25-16 lead in the all-time series. Seventeen of the last 19 meetings in the series have been decided by double-figures, with two of CU’s last four trips to Chicago the lone exceptions. Creighton is 18-1 in the series since joining the Big East, including 15 straight victories.
On February 17, 2002, the Bluejays defeated Wichita State 69-67 on a buzzer-beater by freshman point guard Tyler McKinney. The Jays had blown a big lead by surrendering 30 points in the game’s final 8-1/2 minutes, turning a 51-37 lead into a tie game. Guard Randy Burns scored 14 all by himself in the final four minutes, hitting one clutch three after another — including a three with 8 seconds to play that tied the game at 67.
That set up the final possession, where the Shockers’ defense focused (probably correctly) on Kyle Korver, Terrell Taylor, and DeAnthony Bowden. McKinney brought the ball up the floor as the clock ticked down, examined the options WSU’s defense was giving him, and took advantage of their focus elsewhere to drive nearly uncontested to the rim. His shot dropped through the net with 0.4 seconds left, and the Jays escaped.
“I don’t think they really wanted to step off anyone, so they just kind of let me go and thought the guy who was guarding me was going to stay with me,” McKinney told media after the game. “That’s the only reason I got an open lane.” Shocker coach Mark Turgeon had a bit different explanation. “I don’t know if our guys thought the freshman was going to take it all the way in there,” he said. “I think a lot of our guys thought he was going to pass the ball.”
The Bottom Line:
DePaul is favored by the narrowest of margins — KenPom says 69-69 DePaul, Vegas favors the Blue Demons by 3, and ESPN’s BPI gives them a 61% chance of victory.
The Jays fell behind big in the first meeting and then rallied to win; they’ll be ready for DePaul this time, and won’t need a late rally to win it this time.
Bluejays 73, Blue Demons 66
