All eight of the #1 and #2 seeds survived into the Sweet 16 for just the fifth time in history (along with 1989, 1995, 2009 and 2019). A historic number of favorites are still alive, and Creighton’s potential path to a Final Four goes through #2 seed Tennessee (the regular season SEC champs), #1 seed Purdue (the regular season Big Ten champs) or #5 seed Gonzaga.
First up is the Vols, a team who’s overwhelming on defense and just good enough on offense. Their adjusted defensive efficiency is #3 in D1, giving up 89.9 points per 100 possessions — almost 17 points better than the D1 average of 106.1. By way of comparison, last year’s San Diego State team was 90.4, which ranked fourth.
Their opponents have an effective field goal percentage of just 45.0%, the fourth-best mark in D1 (the average is 50.5%). In two wins last weekend, Tennessee’s defense was suffocating. They gave up 0.77 points per possession to Saint Peter’s in a 83-49 win, holding them to 12-of-31 on two-pointers and 4-of-24 on threes. Against Texas, they gave up 0.82 points per possession and held the Longhorns to 13-of-32 inside the arc and 7-of-23 outside.
Texas ranks 30th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and had a season-worst 81.5 mark in that game — their 42.7% effective field goal percentage was their third worst of the season.
“No disrespect to UConn, but I think (Tennessee) is the best defensive team we’ve played this year,” Greg McDermott said on Monday. “They’re elite at forcing turnovers. They have a lot of length across that front line. And Zakai Zeigler is one of the fastest point guards and most disruptive defensive point guards that we will have seen this year.”
They do it with physicality, length and athleticism; their philosophy, as coach Rick Barnes told the media after the Texas win, is “we believe in ball pressure.” Nothing is easy, nothing is uncontested, and they can press out almost to halfcourt because their quickness allows them cover a lot of ground.
While some teams have one or two great individual ball-pressure defenders, Tennessee has a lineup full of them. Five separate players have a steal rate of 2.5% or higher, the only team in America that can claim that. And if you manage to get the ball past those players, 6’11” center Jonas Aidoo is waiting at the rim, where he blocks 9.0% of shot attempts (32nd best in D1).
“We’ve had a few foolish turnovers in in both of the games we played in, and now we’re going to see a team that really thrives on turnovers,” McDermott said. “I think taking care of the basketball against Tennessee is (the biggest key) and then you know 1A is battling on the defensive glass because they’re elite attacking the offensive glass as well.”
His latter point is an oft-overlooked key to Tennessee’s defense: because they’re elite on the offensive glass (grabbing a board on an insane 32.8% of their missed shots), opponents have fewer chances to run in transition and score before Tennessee’s ball-pressure defense can get set.
To put Tennessee’s defense in perspective, UConn’s adjusted defensive efficiency (93.5) ranks ninth, and is the best Creighton has played this season. Tennessee is nearly four points better per 100 possessions. That’s how you go to Alabama and hold the Crimson Tide scoreless for nine minutes on their home floor, as Tennessee did on March 2.
The thing is, their defense has to be that good for them to win — because Tennessee’s offensive output is wildly inconsistent. In spite of an adjusted offensive efficiency for the season that ranks 30th, they have more clunkers than you’d expect. Against Texas, they were 3-of-25 from three-point range. Most of the 22 misses were open shots. They exited the SEC Tournament after one game, a 73-56 loss to Mississippi State, after an 8-of-33 performance from three (and a 11-of-29 shooting night inside the arc).
It’s an offense that settles for threes too often for a roster without a plethora of elite shooters, with 41.9% of their total shots coming from behind the arc. Not a single player is shooting 40% or better on those shots. Just 36.1% of their shots come at the rim (27th percentile in frequency) — this is primarily a jump-shooting team.
Their best is Dalton Knecht, who came to Tennessee as a good portal transfer from Northern Colorado last spring — and then exploded into a superstar overnight. He’s a future NBA lottery pick who averaged 21.1 points per game and had 11 games of 25+ en route to SEC Player of the Year and First Team All-American honors. He hung 40 on Kentucky in the regular season finale, scoring from everywhere (8-of-14 inside the arc, 6-of-15 outside, and 6-of-9 at the line). He had 39 against Auburn in the same fashion (7-of-13 on twos, 5-of-8 on threes, 10-of-12 at the line).
It’s likely that Baylor Scheierman gets the initial assignment guarding the 6’6″ Knecht. But CU is probably going to have to switch up their looks and the primary defender a bit, if nothing else than to give Knecht something else to battle against.
If there’s a knock on Knecht, it’s the volume of shots he takes: he’s attempted 525 shots this year, or 33.2% of his team’s shots while he’s on the floor (22nd most in D1). In SEC games, that usage rose to 36.8% — no player in the country took a bigger percentage of their team’s shots than Knecht in league games. When he’s feeling it, like he was in those Kentucky and Auburn games, he’s just about unstoppable. When he’s not? He can shoot them out of games. Knecht was 5-of-18 (and 1-of-8 from three) against Texas. Two weeks ago, in the SEC tourney loss to Mississippi State, he was 4-of-17 (and 2-of-9 from three).
SEC Defensive Player of the Year Zakai Zeigler stands just 5’9″ and 170 pounds, but don’t let those dimensions fool you — he’s like a mosquito, with intense-bordering-on-insane ball pressure, constantly heating up opposing guards and forcing them into bad decisions. He’s had a steal on 3.3% of opponent’s possessions, which is actually lower than it was a year ago when he stole the ball on 4.2% of possessions (35th best among all D1 players) and two years ago, when he was at 4.5% (11th best). But that’s because Tennessee has surrounded him with better defensive players, not because of anything that has gotten worse with Zeigler’s game.
Offensively, he’s a good distributor (6.0 assists per game) and an OK shooter (47.5% on twos, 34.9% on threes). He’s in a slump currently, coming off of a 2-of-12 shooting night against Texas where he was 1-of-8 from three. Against Mississippi State in the SEC tourney, he was 7-of-17 and 4-of-12 from three.
After battling and beating two elite centers in the first two rounds in Akron’s Enrique Freeman and Oregon’s N’Faly Dante, the Jays and Ryan Kalkbrenner now meet a third: Jonas Aidoo. The 6’11” Aidoo is a terror at the rim on both ends: a shot-blocking machine defensively, while offensively, 195 of his 324 shots (60.2%) have come at the rim. He’s almost automatic when he gets the ball on the block (shooting 62% on those shots). But he, too, has been in a slump: in their last four games, he’s 15-of-35 (42%) from the floor. The good news is because Aidoo shoots almost exclusively at the rim, Kalkbrenner will be able to stay home and contest shots from any other Vols who get there.
The recipe for beating Tennessee is not allowing their ball pressure to force you into mistakes, battling on the glass so you can get out in transition and ratchet up the tempo a little bit, and hitting enough tough shots to win a grinder. It’s tough to win a rock fight if the other team has all the rocks — Nine minutes into last Saturday’s second round game, Texas had six turnovers and had only attempted seven field goals (while Tennessee had taken 14 by that point). By halftime, the Longhorns had 11 turnovers and were shooting only 30.8%.
CU will need to battle for 40 minutes like they did in the win over UConn at home to win. A performance more like the one against St. John’s in NYC, and their season will likely be over.
- Tip: Approx. 9:09pm Omaha time (30 minutes after completion of Purdue/Gonzaga, which tips at 6:39pm)
- Venue: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
- TV: TBS and TruTV
- Announcers: Andrew Catalon, Steve Lappas and Evan Washburn
- In Omaha: Cox channel 27/1027
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 247, Dish Network channel 139
- Streaming at http://ncaa.com/marchmadnesslive
- Creighton Radio: 1620AM, 101.9FM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Nick Bahe
- Streaming on The Varsity Network app, Powered by Learfield
- National Radio: Westwood One
- Announcers: Kevin Kugler and Robbie Hummel
- Simulcast on SiriusXM channel 209 or 202, and on the SXM App
- Streaming at WestwoodOneSports.com/Madness
Tennessee’s big three are surrounded by Santiago Vescovi, Josiah-Jordan James and Jordan Gainey. All are capable shooters, but streaky: Vescovi (43-of-131, 32.8%), James (39-of-120, 32.5%) and Gainey (35-of-128, 27.23%) have all had their moments, though they’re streaky
With three steals in the win over Texas, Vescovi upped his career total to 212, passing Vincent Yarbrough (1998-2002) for the most in UT history. He owns 15 steals in NCAA Tournament play, tied with Chris Lofton (2004-08) for the UT record.
Dalton Knecht, one of four Naismith Trophy finalists, is tied with Allan Houston (717 in 1991-92) for third on UT’s single-season scoring list and seven shy of Dale Ellis (724 in 1982-83) for second
Creighton made 15 three-pointers in Saturday’s Second win vs. Oregon, breaking a program-record for an NCAA Tournament game originally set during CU’s double-overtime game vs. Florida in 2002. Hours earlier, Creighton’s women made 15 three-pointers in a First Round NCAA Tournament win over UNLV. Per research by former Drake and Alabama SID Ty Patton, that made Creighton the nation’s only team in the last 20 years to have its men’s and women’s teams both make 15 three-pointers in the NCAA Tournament on the same day.
After just two wins by 13 points or more in its first 43 NCAA Tournament games, the Bluejays just did it twice in three days last weekend. Creighton’s 77-60 win over Akron to begin NCAA Tournament play was its largest victory margin ever in an NCAA Tournament play, eclipsing its 77-61 win vs. Texas in 1974. And Creighton’s 86-73 double-overtime win over Oregon improved the Bluejays to 2-0 all-time in NCAA Tournament games to go to double-OT.
Creighton is one of just five teams to have reached at least three of the last four Sweet 16s. Gonzaga and Houston have done it each of the last four seasons, while Alabama, UCLA and Creighton have done it three times each.
Creighton and Tennessee have met once, a 34-28 Volunteers’ win in January 1937. The headline in the next day’s Omaha World-Herald read “Blue Cagers Beaten 34-28 at Tennessee: Creighton Loses Its Second Southern Game on Gift Shots.”
The article points out the Jays took an early 10-1 lead and made 11 field goals to Tennessee’s 10, but were outscored at the line 14-6 which turned the tide. Three Bluejays fouled out (with four fouls, which was the rule in those days); Roman Roh led them in scoring with 12 points before fouling out. For Tennessee, Captain Floyd Marshall led the way with 12 points.
The Bottom Line:
Tennessee is a 2.5 point favorite, making this just the fourth time this season CU has been an underdog (along with both games against UConn and the road game at Marquette). KenPom predicts a 73-71 Tennessee win. ESPN’s BPI gives Creighton 42.3% odds of victory; KenPom is slightly more optimistic at 44%.
