Creighton lost their third straight game on Sunday, the first three-game regular-season losing streak since the 2015-16 team dropped road games to Georgetown and Villanova and a home game to Seton Hall in late January. That group wound up at 9-9 in conference play. They’ve now lost back-to-back home games for the first time since the forgettable 2014-15 season; that’s also the last time they started 1-3 in conference play. That team finished 4-14 in the Big East.
That’s the bad news. The good news? Creighton’s played one of, if not the, toughest four-game stretches in the league to this point. The Bluejays and St. John’s are the only teams to have played both of the favorites (Marquette and Villanova) so far, and CU also had road games at two of the toughest road venues outside of Omaha (Providence and Butler). Of Creighton’s first six games, four are on the road, and the two home games were against the two best teams in the league — at strange tip times to boot (6:00pm on a weeknight and 11:00am on a Sunday).
There’s no off nights in the Big East, but not all opponents are created equal even in this gauntlet of a conference.
It’s frustrating to see them sitting at 1-3, particularly when they were 0.8 seconds away from being 2-2 and a better second half away from potentially being 3-1. It’s frustrating to have watched them lose three straight games for the first time in three years. And it’s hard to view the bigger picture when it feels like the season is slipping away this early. But here’s the bigger picture:
According to KenPom, Creighton is favored in four of their next five games, and significantly so (60% or higher probability) in three of them. That’s because after St. John’s, which is essentially a toss-up according to oddsmakers, CU heads to Georgetown where they’re favored, and then plays three consecutive home games against Butler, St. John’s and Xavier. Keeping their heads up through this rugged opening stretch is key, because they’re about to come up for air.
“Coach Mac tells us every day to trust him and to trust our system,” Ty-Shon Alexander said in a postgame radio interview on Sunday. “Obviously everyone does. And that will help us to keep this from snowballing on us. We’re close; it just hasn’t clicked yet. We are a family. We do anything we have to do to make every one of us better.”
If KenPom’s predictive metrics hold true, CU would be 5-4 on February 6 when they head to Philadelphia for a rematch with Villanova. And because of all the road games early, if they can survive the first 14 games of the conference slate with any semblance of a postseason pulse, three of their last four are at home.
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The Bluejays will look to get back in the win column Wednesday night in Queens against a St. John’s team that started the year 12-0, but has gone just 2-3 once Big East play started. The Johnnies undefeated start should have a big, bold asterisk next to it because their non-conference slate was a joke — ranking 338th out of 351 teams in D1. You read that right: just 13 teams in America played a worse schedule, which is embarrassing for a Big East team, but especially egregious for a veteran team expected to contend for an NCAA Tourney berth.
The biggest storyline in this game is the health of Shamorie Ponds, the preseason Big East Player of the Year. Ponds ranks third in the league in scoring at 20.6 points per game, is first in assists (6.0) and steals (2.7), and was one of 25 players in the country selected to the midseason watch list for the Wooden Award last week.
Ponds was injured at Georgetown last Saturday, when he scored 37 points during an overtime victory. He tried to play through the back injury, and scored 23 points in their 76-71 loss at Villanova in spite of it, but sat out over the weekend when they lost at home to DePaul. He’s a terrific player, and especially important to St. John’s — they have just four players that have played in all 17 of their games, and after sophomore Mikey Dixon announced he was transferring last week, their rotation is essentially seven deep. Take away Ponds, and you’re left with basically a six-man roster. Few teams in the country rely so heavily on their starting five, and while that’s not a terrible thing in theory — particularly when your starting five is as talented as St. John’s five are — it leaves you vulnerable if any of them miss time.
Their five starters all average 30+ minutes and are responsible for 87.6% of their points, 77.7% of their rebounds, and 90.8% of their assists. Their top two reserves (minus Dixon, who was playing nearly 18 minutes off the bench and averaging 5.9 points and 1.3 rebounds) are responsible for almost everything else — the six remaining players on the roster after those guys have scored 23 combined points in 127 total minutes the entire season.
Transfers Mustapha Heron (14.9 ppg., 4.9 rpg.) and LJ Figueroa (14.8 ppg., 6.6 rpg.) and returnees Marvin Clark II (12.8 ppg., 5.6 rpg.) and Justin Simon (10.9 ppg., 5.2 rpg.) are the other four starters, and the bulk of their production. The bench is Bryan Trimble, Jr. (2.4 ppg., 1.8 rpg.) and Greg Williams, Jr. (1.8 ppg., 0.9 rpg.). And that’s it.
Ponds is the linchpin to everything St. John’s does. He’s a good three-point shooter (36-for-90, 40%), he’s an effective scorer off the dribble who can finish at the rim with a variety of acrobatic moves that create space despite his 6’1″, 180 pound frame, and he’s skilled at drawing fouls around the basket (his 44.9% free throw rate — FT attempts divided by FG attempts — is one of the tops in the country; he’s 79-for-97 at the line). His ballhandling and vision is key to their transition game. And in the half court, they need his ability to attack the basket and kick it out to open shooters in the corners when defenses collapse on him. Without him on the floor, defenses don’t have to collapse on drivers, which in turn takes away their open looks from three-point range. For a team who takes 40% of their shots from three-point range, that’s a big problem.
Ponds is officially listed as day-to-day. I’d expect him to play, but with St. John’s who knows? Marcus LoVett was listed as day-to-day for damn near three months last season and wound up missing nearly the entire season.
Creighton is in nearly the same boat at this point, unfortunately. With Damien Jefferson also day-to-day, and Jacob Epperson done for the season, Creighton’s bench is woefully thin.
“Without Damien today, there were a couple of times where I felt like Marcus needed a break, or we just needed to get him off the floor for a second to calm him down, and we couldn’t,” Greg McDermott said in his postgame radio show after the loss to Villanova. “Ty-Shon had a stretch in the second half where he was a little rushed, too. But I talked to my staff, and we were like, we just have to roll with it — we have to go with what we have.”
“It was unfortunate DJ couldn’t go today,” McDermott continued. “He’s played some good basketball for us. I don’t know for certain when we’ll get him back, but I’m hopeful we can get him back on the practice floor soon and at least have him for part of this next road trip.”
If Jefferson remains out for Creighton, and Ponds remains out for St. John’s, this might well become a war of attrition on Wednesday night between two teams riding their top six or seven players.
- Tip: 5:31pm
- Venue: Carnesecca Arena, Queens, NY
- TV: FS1
- Announcers: Brian Custer and Len Elmore
- In Omaha: Cox channel 78 (SD), 1078 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 620 (SD), 1620 (HD)
- Outside Omaha: FS1 Channel Finder
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 219, Dish Network channel 150
- Streaming on FoxSportsGO
- Radio: 1620AM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Nick Bahe
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- For Cord Cutters:
- St. John’s is off to a 14-3 start, which is their best since the 1990-91 squad began the season with 14 wins in 16 tries. Led by junior Malik Sealy, that team went on to make the Elite Eight.
- Justin Simon ranks fourth in the Big East with 5.3 assists per game in Big East play, and is also fourth in assist/turnover ratio. He’s scored in double figures in nine of their last 11 games, including 20 against DePaul over the weekend (where he made 10-of-15 two-point shots). Simon scored 17 points in Queens against Creighton a year ago, making 6-of-11 inside the arc, dishing out seven assists, and grabbing nine rebounds; he had 11 in Omaha with six assists and five boards.
- Marvin Clark II is their top three-point threat, making 40-of-103 so far this year (38.8%). He scored 19 total points against CU a year ago, going 3-of-9 from long range.
- Creighton has not trailed in three of its last five meetings with St. John’s, outscoring the Red Storm 413-333 in those games. All told, Creighton has trailed for just 22:50 (of 200:00) over the past five meetings with St. John’s. The Bluejays also have not trailed in the final 28 minutes of any of its last three visits to Carnesecca Arena.
- St. John’s is 478-98 (.830) all-time at Carnesecca Arena, which opened during the 1961-62 season. Creighton has a chance on Wednesday to become the first visiting men’s basketball team to beat St. John’s in that venue in four consecutive seasons. Creighton is 3-3 all-time in the facility against the Red Storm (going 0-3 in non-conference action before joining the Big East). That .500 mark actually gives Creighton the best winning percentage of any visiting men’s basketball team to face the Johnnies five or more times in the facility. And it’s not just the men’s basketball team — since joining the league in 2013, Creighton is 13-2 across all sports when competing at Carnesecca Arena, with the volleyball team (6-0), men’s basketball team (3-0) and women’s basketball team (4-2) all owning winning records.
- Sunday’s loss to Villanova overshadowed Martin Krampelj’s seventh straight game where he scored in double-figures, as he finished with 14 points and 10 rebounds for his second double-double of the year. In the past seven games, Krampelj has averaged 16.1 points and a team-best 8.3 rebounds per game. Here’s a look at his first 10 games, when he was still coming back from ACL surgery, and his last seven:
- First 10 games:
- 47.4% FG%
- 18.2% 3FG%
- 56.3% FT%
- 4.4 Rebounds/game
- 7.4 Points/game
- 11 total dunks
- Last 7 games
- 67.7% FG%
- 40.0% 3FG%
- 62.2% FT%
- 8.3 Rebounds/game
- 16.1 Points/game
- 20 total dunks
- First 10 games:
Creighton is 10-7 all-time against St. John’s, and 8-2 in the series since joining the Big East. Creighton has won the last six meetings, with four of those coming by double-figures. The Bluejays are 3-6 all-time in road games against the Red Storm, but those three wins came in the last three meetings, each of which were contested at Carnesecca Arena.
The last time they met, Creighton won 68-63 in Queens in a game dominated by turnovers. From the Morning After:
Creighton and St. John’s make the same number of shots (23), but Creighton had eight fewer attempts. The teams were virtually the same from the line, too, with the Jays going 11-13 from the stripe and St. John’s going 12-15.
The difference? Creighton turned it over 16 times, 10 of them on steals by St. John’s — compared to just five turnovers by the Red Storm. That led to a 17-4 advantage in points off turnovers, and kept the Jays from pulling away.
In two games against St. John’s this year, Creighton has committed 33 turnovers, and been outscored 41-12 on points off turnovers.
(Click through to reminisce about Marcus Foster being disrespected by a SB Nation writer who said Foster was a below the rim talent who “lacked explosiveness” and had “minimal defensive impact.” And to watch Foster’s emphatic response with two explosive dunks.)
On January 16, 2010, Creighton defeated Wichita State 57-56 for their seventeenth — 17th! — straight win at home in the series. Ott’s recap is a real tour de force; I’d excerpt something from it but I’m not sure where to begin and where to end. Just go re-read the whole thing.
I beg you.
I PLEAD WITH YOU.
The Bottom Line:
St. John’s forces a turnover on 21.1% of their opponent’s possessions. They average 8.9 steals per game (ripping away a steal on 12.0% of opponent’s possessions, 14th-best in the country). They’re not as good at blocking shots as they were a year ago when Tariq Owens was harassing people, but they’re still effective at protecting the rim. They’re long, they’re athletic, they disrupt your passing lanes and your rhythm, and they get you sped up. Even without Shamorie Ponds.
Creighton has a tough battle on their hands Wednesday night. If they can keep from turning it over, they’ve got a chance.
KenPom predicts a two-point St. John’s win. We’ll flip that and predict a two-point Bluejay win.
Creighton 83, St. John’s 81
