Creighton is off to a surprising 2-0 start in Big East play, and the nature of that start — a 20 point win at home over then-#9 Villanova, and a double-overtime win on the road at Marquette — has college basketball followers around the country asking if the Jays are for real. We’ll get some answers to that question over the next 10 days, as the Jays are scheduled to play three straight ranked teams (at #19 Villanova, vs #16 Providence, and at #22 Xavier). We say “scheduled” because with COVID-19 affecting over 60 Division 1 basketball teams over the last couple of weeks, planning too far ahead is a fools errand.
Also a fools errand: looking past Wednesday’s game at Villanova, because awaiting the Bluejays is a really good team that will be locked-in and laser-focused after getting smoked by 20 points in Omaha two weeks ago. Led by the fiery Collin Gillespie, the Wildcats are likely to have an even sharper edge than usual with the memories of that blowout loss fresh.
There’s a lot of reasons Jay Wright’s team hasn’t been swept in a season series since 2016-17 when Butler beat them twice — the obvious one is his teams simply haven’t lost many games, period, but they also do a better job than almost anyone of learning from the first meeting and adjusting their gameplan to succeed in the rematch.
Indeed, the Wildcats have already adjusted their plans based on the blowout the Jays handed them. Through 13 games, 41% of their points have come via three-pointers (22nd most in the country). But after making just 4-of-23 three-pointers in Omaha and 6-of-27 against Baylor in the game before it, they’ve re-focused their efforts on scoring in the paint, attempting the fewest threes of any game this year in two straight contests.
The problem for Villanova: Creighton has the country’s 13th best defense against two-point shots according to KenPom’s data, allowing opponents to shoot just 42.4%. The D1 average? 49.5%. Ryan Kalkbrenner is a big part of that, as the Jays block 12.7% of opponent’s shot attempts (55th most in D1) and alter countless others. You’re attacking the strength of CU’s defense when you venture into the paint; they can be beaten on the perimeter, where their defense is the definition of average. Opponents shoot 33.0% on three-pointers, right at the D1 average of 33.2%, to rank 170th. That presents a quandary for Jay Wright and the Wildcats.
For the Jays, the defensive keys are the same they always are against Villanova: don’t fall for pump fakes, and stay home on shooters. If you do those things without fouling, you’ll be alright. Easier said than done, obviously. In the first game, though, they did — the Wildcats had only four assists, a season low and only the third time they’ve been in single digits. They shot 33.3% from the floor, the second-worst rate of the year ahead of only the 22.2% they shot against Baylor.
Individually, Villanova is led by Collin Gillespie, who’s third in the Big East in scoring at 16.5 points per game. He didn’t play all that well in Omaha — he had 16 points, yes, but shot 1-of-8 from three-point range and had just two assists. That’s become a trend for Gillespie against the Jays, as he was 3-of-10 in two games a year ago, and 2-of-8 on threes in Philadelphia two years ago. He hasn’t shot well against Creighton since the early January 2020 win in Omaha. Even when he’s not knocking down shots, Gillespie is this team’s unquestioned leader, but it’s a safe bet he’ll be locked in offensively for the last (scheduled) meeting with the Jays of his career after struggling the last four meetings.
The Jays defended his backcourt mate, Justin Moore, really well in the first meeting. He had just six points on 3-of-10 shooting, including 0-of-3 on three-pointers. He didn’t attempt a single free throw in 36 minutes, and had three turnovers. Those last two numbers are surprising for a player who’s generally a sure-handed ballhandler that exploits defensive mismatches.
Caleb Daniels, their sixth-man who spells all three starting guards — and the only bench player to get significant minutes in the first meeting — remains in the COVID protocol and will not play tonight. He averages 9.5 points and 3.9 rebounds, and played 22 important minutes in the first meeting. In his absence over the weekend, all five starters played 30+ minutes and role players Bryan Antoine and Chris Arcidiacono saw more time, mostly for the worse.
While they did a good job on Villanova’s guards, their forwards were another story. Eric Dixon scored 15 points with nine rebounds (five of them offensive). He wasn’t terribly efficient, making just 3-of-10 shots inside the arc, but he did knock down two 3-pointers and 3-of-4 from the line. Mostly, he took advantage of the attention CU had to pay to Gillespie and Moore when they dribbled into the paint, getting good looks when defenders left home to help. Kalkbrenner and the Jays’ bigs were able to recover more often than not, but the fact that he got so many shot attempts at the rim is something to keep an eye on.
- Tip: 7:30pm
- Venue: Finneran Pavilion, Philadelphia, PA
- TV: FS1
- Announcers: Kevin Kugler and Bill Raftery
- In Omaha: Cox channel 78 (SD), 1078 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 620 (SD), 1620 (HD)
- Outside Omaha: FS1 Channel Finder
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 219, Dish Network channel 150
- Cable Cutters: Available on all major streaming platforms
- Streaming on the Fox Sports app and website
- Radio: 1620AM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Taylor Stormberg
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- Satellite radio: XM 382 or SiriusXM app 972
- Collin Gillespie was named Big East Player of the Week after leading the Wildcats to a pair of victories over ranked teams. In Saturday’s 73-67 victory at Seton Hall, he scored 21 points to go with four rebounds before fouling out.
- In Villanova’s nine victories, the Wildcats have limited their opponents to 57.4 points per game. In the ‘Cats four losses, foes have averaged 75.5 points per contest. One of those came last month in Omaha, when Creighton posted a 79-59 win
- In games where the Wildcats have won the battle of the boards this season, they are 8-0. In outings where Nova has been outrebounded, it is 1-4.
- Creighton and Villanova are the only two teams in the Big East Conference to have used the same starting five for every game this season. Creighton’s bench has scored 166 points in 13 games, while Nova’s reserve corps has scored 153 points in 13 games.
- Wednesday’s game features the two winningest basketball programs in Big East play since realignment in 2013-14. Villanova has 116 wins to lead the pack by a wide margin, but Creighton’s 85 league victories are second-most.
- A 79-59 win vs. No. 9 Villanova coupled with an 83-71 win vs. No. 24 BYU means Creighton owns a pair double-digit wins over top-25 competition this season, something only three other schools can also claim. Gonzaga’s done it three times while Villanova and Iowa State have done it twice. The Bluejays have now beaten multiple top-25 foes each of the last seven seasons (2015-16 to 2021-22), something only Baylor, Gonzaga, Purdue and Villanova can also claim.
Villanova leads the all-time series with Creighton, 15-6, including a 9-2 mark at home. Both Bluejay road wins (in 2014 & 2020) came at Wells Fargo Center; Wednesday’s game is at the Pavilion, where Villanova has won 28 straight games.
Creighton last swept the regular-season series in 2013-14 with a pair of victories by 20+ points, something they look to repeat on Wednesday.
On January 5, 2013, Creighton defeated Indiana State 79-66 to move to 3-0 in the league in their final run through the Missouri Valley.
The Trees led 27-21 with under three minutes to play in the first half, and then Gregory Echenique blocked not one, not two, but THREE STRAIGHT Indiana State shot attempts — sending the first one four rows deep into the stands. It gave a huge crowd waiting for a reason to explode the chance to yell, and gave the players the energy they needed to make a 6-0 run that tied the game at the break. Echenique’s Block Party starts around the 1:45 mark of the Highlight Reel:
They carried that momentum into the second half, scoring 52 points after the break and making 8-of-13 three pointers. But with both Doug McDermott and Ethan Wragge in foul trouble, they never really created separation until late in the game. From the Morning After:
“Gregory Echenique scored a layup on the other end to make it 44-43, then converted a three-point play on the next possession to tie the game at 46. Manny Arop nailed a three for ISU on their next possession, and it was immediately answered by a three from Ethan Wragge. Jake Odum then scored a bucket on ISU’s next trip down the floor to make it 51-49. It would be the Trees’ last lead of the afternoon, and the last field goal they would make for nearly six minutes.
Echenique tied it 18 seconds later on another bucket, then threw down a rim-shattering dunk on the next possession that had seemingly half the crowd mimicking Jahenns Manigat’s “muscle flex” gesture. Another three from Wragge followed, and as McDermott checked back in it was 56-52 Creighton. The 7-1 run his teammates had gone on without him turned into a 16-2 run following his return, with McDermott scoring six of Jays’ next nine points. When all was said and done, it was 65-53 Jays with just over five minutes to go, and the game was for all intents and purposes over.”
The Bottom Line:
Villanova is somewhat surprisingly a double-digit favorite according to Vegas. That’s how much respect they (deservedly) get. KenPom figures on a double-digit Villanova win, too, 70-60. I think the Jays will beat those spreads, but I just think this veteran Villanova team at the Pavilion with the memory of that 20-point loss fresh in their minds is too much to overcome.
Villanova 73, Creighton 67
