In early January, Creighton led the Big East in field goal percentage at 47.3%. But their offense has struggled — a lot — once conference teams realized they could frustrate the Bluejays with physical play. By bullying them and grinding the pace of the game down, opponents have succeeded at goading the Jays into abandoning a lot of the core principles of their offense.
After the loss to Xavier last weekend, Greg McDermott said on his postgame radio show that his players are fighting their own instincts too often. “Human nature is to think ‘I’m going to go fix this.’ And that’s the last thing you should think,” he said. “You should think even more ball movement, more spacing, more pace, instead of putting your head down and trying to force a play to save the day.”
And after losing at Seton Hall, McDermott noted the Pirates’ physicality bothered his team. “We didn’t find a lot of open passing lanes…they took away our aggressiveness.”
Too often, faced with a defense that takes away their initial action, players respond by trying to make a play themselves. That leads to more dribbling, where an already-physical defense is ready to pounce and knock the ball away. Or it leads to forcing passes into tight windows, where the defense can get a hand on it.
Talking to the media on Monday afternoon, Trey Alexander said that McDermott had shared with the team an interesting stat: they’d only got a ball reversal (passing the ball to the opposite side of the floor, with the hope of getting the defense off-balance) on around 20% of their possessions against Seton Hall. But when they got a ball reversal, the possession ended with a made basket roughly 70% of the time.
70% of 20% isn’t very many, obviously.
“We have to try to move the ball,” Alexander said. “When we get the ball to the second side of the court, we’re very successful.”
The last five games in particular have seen those trends accelerate. The Jays are averaging just 57.8 points over those five games (three of them losses), shooting 38.0% overall and 23.2% from three-point range. They’ve averaged a meager 0.87 points per possession. But the biggest problem is not that they’ve had trouble scoring the ball — it’s that they’ve allowed one poor possession to snowball into two or three, or 15 or 20.
It’s the prolonged stretches of ineptitude in each game that have really been the killer. If we break down those games into four quarters, they’ve had one quarter in each of those five games with fewer than 10 points.
- Against DePaul at home, it was the second 10 minutes of the first half (8 points)
- At Butler, it was also the second 10 minutes of the first half (8 points)
- Against Xavier at home, it was the first 10 minutes of the second half (2 points)
- At UConn, it was also the first 10 minutes of the second half (7 points)
- And at Seton Hall, it was the first 10 minutes of the game (3 points)
There were sporadic struggles earlier in the season, too; At Villanova, they actually did it twice — in the last 10 minutes of the first half they scored 5 points, and in the first 10 minutes of the second half they scored just 8. It happened in the second 10 minutes of the first half against Kennesaw State, and in the first 10 minutes against Iowa State.
Last year, they had a 10-minute stretch that poor just three times all season (and it’s the games you’d expect — vs Providence at home, vs Georgetown in the Big East title game clunker, and against #1 Gonzaga in the Sweet 16). In 2019-20, it happened just three times, as well (vs San Diego State, at Butler, at Providence). And in 2018-19, just twice (vs Providence at home, vs Xavier in the Big East Tourney). If you’re scoring at home, that’s eight times in three years — and eight more this year alone.
Fortunately, an elite defense has kept them afloat. Their adjusted defensive efficiency in Big East games is 97.2, second-best in the league. Opponents in league play have an effective field goal percentage of 44.6%, also second-best, and have made only 42.8% of their two-pointers — the Jays have the best interior defense in the league. Because of that defense, at the midpoint of the Big East slate they sit at 5-5 after playing the toughest slate of any of the 11 teams so far (per KenPom’s data). The upside to playing the league’s toughest schedule through 10 games? The last nine are a bit less tough — just three opponents have a winning record in league play.
Starting tonight, they have four straight games against the three worst teams in the league — Butler tonight (9th place), Georgetown in back-to-back games Saturday and Monday (last place), and DePaul next Thursday (10th). Those three have a combined 6-27 record in Big East play.
That’s a double-edged sword for a team who has struggled with success. The Jays are 2-5 in games following a win since December, and have not had a winning streak of more than two games since Thanksgiving.
Alexander said the players are well aware of the stretch of games that is ahead of them — and that to combat any sense of a break, they’re looking at the bigger picture of their NCAA Tournament resume, and given their status as a bubble team that gives them a feeling that their backs are against the wall.
“This will definitely (show) us what kind of NCAA tournament team we are,” he told media on Monday. “If we are able to play the way we know how and play our best brand of basketball toward the end of the season, we will be a very successful team in March.”
They’re solidly on the bubble right now, appearing in 74 of the 111 brackets tracked by BracketMatrix.com — with an average seed of 11.27. In their favor are three gigantic Quad 1 wins that just about no other bubble team can match (Villanova, at Marquette, at Connecticut). Home losses to Butler or Georgetown aren’t bad enough to disqualify them from NCAA Tourney consideration, but they’d be black eyes on a resume that already has some bruises (a home loss to Arizona State the biggest).
Butler comes into Omaha in a tough spot. Sitting at 11-12 and 4-8 in the league, their remaining schedule is the opposite of Creighton’s — five of their remaining eight games are on the road, with trips to Creighton, Seton Hall and Marquette among them. The three home games are against the three best teams in the league (Villanova, Providence, and Marquette). The potential for the rest of the season to spiral out of control is easy to visualize.
As they typically do, the Bulldogs were able to force the Jays into their style of play at Hinkle Fieldhouse — slow, methodical, physical games. Creighton has generally returned the favor in Omaha, winning five straight with each one by double digits, all of them played at a much faster pace than the games in Indy. The home team has won nine straight in this series.
How Creighton responds to getting punked in Indianapolis a couple of weeks ago will be the biggest thing to watch for — Alexander told the media that while the coaching staff drilled home the point before that game that Butler would be physical, the Bulldogs’ ferocity still caught them off guard. He said they won’t be surprised this time. Ball reversal is especially important against Butler, because if you can get them off-balance, there’s points to be had at the rim. They’re last in the league in block rate, and among the 100 worst teams in America at blocking opponent’s shots. But at Hinkle the Jays played right into their hands — rather than work the ball inside, they attempted 22 three-pointers and made just two. Butler’s perimeter defense has been really stout, allowing opponents to make only 30.1% of their three-pointers overall (40th best in D1) and 29.2% in league play (2nd best).
Opponents have made 51.5% of their two-pointers against Butler (third-highest). They’ve assisted on 51.9% of their made baskets (fourth-most). The key to beating Butler is to move the ball, get their defense off-balance, and pass up good shots for great shots. In other words, the core principles of Creighton’s offense.
Defensively, the Jays struggled in the first meeting largely because of miscommunication — time after time, especially in the second half, they gave up in-rhythm three-pointers or uncontested layups. They do present some problems for the Jays, because their bigs can (and do) shoot three-pointers. In the first meeting, Ryan Kalkbrenner was drawn away from the rim too often, and it took away the Bluejay defense’s safety net.
Creighton didn’t play well in Indianapolis. They didn’t play well in their last outing at Seton Hall. That probably bodes well for tonight — this team has repeatedly bounced back from poor performances and has played best when they’re counted out. Greg McDermott, for one, hopes the fans show up ready to give the team a lift.
“The crowd was great against Xavier. We owe ‘em one,” he promised at the end of his postgame radio show after Friday night’s loss. “I hope they come back and be loud and proud for us Tuesday night.”
- Tip: 8:00pm
- Venue: CHI Health Center Omaha
- TV: CBSSN
- Announcers: Andrew Catalon, Steve Lappas
- Sideline reporter: Jenny Dell
- In Omaha: Cox channel 234 (SD), 1234 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 643 (SD), 1643 (HD)
- Outside Omaha: CBSSN Channel Finder
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 221; Dish Network channel 158
- Streaming info
- Radio: 1620AM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Taylor Stormberg
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- Satellite radio: XM 381; SiriusXM app 971
- Chuck Harris leads a balanced Bulldog roster with 10.8 points per game, just ahead of Jayden Taylor (8.9 ppg.), Bryce Golden (8.8 ppg.), Bo Hodges (8.4 ppg.), Bryce Nze (8.2 ppg., 5.9 rpg.) and Jair Bolden (7.7 ppg.). Fifth-year senior Aaron Thompson (7.8 ppg., 4.1 apg.) runs the point.
- That held true in the first meeting — Hodges led the way with 18 points (including 3-of-6 inside the arc and 3-of-6 from three), while Harris had 14 and Golden had 10. Thompson had six assists.
- Freshman Simas Lukosius was the surprise — he scored 14 points on 6-of-6 at the line and 2-of-3 from three-point range. He averages 6.0 points and 3.1 rebounds per game.
- Since joining the Big East, Creighton is 18-14 on CBS Sports Network and brings a six-game winning streak on the network into Tuesday nigh’s game.
- Greg McDermott will coach in his 400th game on the Creighton sideline on Tuesday vs. Butler, entering the night with a 266-133 record. Only one other coach in program history has been at the helm for 400 games — McDermott’s predecessor Dana Altman. He finished his CU career in 2010 with a 327-176 record, and owned a 260-140 mark after 400 games with the Bluejays.
- Creighton’s victory last Tuesday at No. 17 UConn was Greg McDermott’s 88th career win in Big East play. Remarkably, those 88 wins rank 13th-most in league history.
Creighton is 14-11 all-time vs. Butler, and the home team has won the last nine meetings not played on a neutral site. Since joining the Big East, Creighton is 9-1 when scoring 72 or more points against the Bulldogs and 1-7 when scoring 71 points or less.
Creighton is 9-2 all-time in Omaha against the Bulldogs, including a 7-1 mark since the schools became Big East rivals. Each the last five games played in Omaha have been double-digit Bluejay victories.
CU walloped the Bulldogs 93-73 last March 6 in Omaha and again 87-56 five days later at the Big East Tournament, but Butler won this year’s initial meeting on Jan. 26 in Indy by a 72-55 count.
On February 8, 2009, the Jays beat Northern Iowa 77-71, snapping UNI’s 11-game winning streak.
Creighton’s top three scorers, Booker Woodfox, P’Allen Stinnett, and Cavel Witter, were all held scoreless in the first half by the Panthers’ defense. They were mostly held in check in the second, too. So other players stepped up — Justin Carter led the Jays with 17 points, Kenny Lawson had 12, Kaleb Korver had seven, Kenton Walker had five. It was Carter who carried them, though.
He scored six points in an 8-2 run that gave CU the lead, including a reverse layup with 10 minutes to play.
“He hit a big 3 when we were really struggling, and he finished some plays,” Dana Altman told the media after the game. “The two drives he had were big. They were pushed out so far on Book and P’Allen, and those two baskets were really important for us.”
The Bottom Line:
KenPom predicts a nine-point Bluejay win, 66-57. ESPN’s BPI gives the Jays a 83.3% chance of victory. Vegas pegs the Jays as seven point favorites, with an over/under of 126.5.
If Creighton needs any motivation, getting throttled 72-55 in Indianapolis — and 74-55 on Friday in Newark — provide plenty. They’ll respond tonight.
Creighton 75, Butler 62
