Ten days ago, Providence was 7-8 overall and 1-3 in the Big East, having lost four straight since losing All-Big East guard Bryce Hopkins to injury for the second straight season. Hopkins had been averaging 17.7 points and 7.7 rebounds, and just like a year ago, his absence left a giant hole in their lineup. Unfortunately for the Friars, his rehab isn’t going smoothly, and a medical redshirt isn’t out of the question.
“He’s not feeling strong right now in the knee,” Providence coach Kim English said after their win against Seton Hall over the weekend. “And we keep working and monitoring him every day. But ultimately, if a kid is not feeling good and strong, it’s not working. Everything is an option. … I really feel bad for the kid.”
Among those four losses were a humiliating 28-point loss to Marquette, Providence’s worst home loss in 20 years; a three-point loss to UConn after leading by 12 at halftime; and a two-point loss to St. John’s on a buzzer-beater after leading by as many as 16. The 78-50 loss to Marquette was a fork in the road type of game, where the Friars’ season could easily have crashed. Instead, they responded positively and have looked like a much different team since.
Their offense scored 0.81 points per possession against Marquette. They’ve been at 1.25 or higher in three straight games since, and better ball movement is the biggest change — for example, they had 16 assists on 28 made baskets in the win over Seton Hall. Four players scored in double figures. And they made 12-of-25 from three-point range.
A change to their lineup also provided a spark. 6’6” freshman Ryan Mela got his first career start last week against Butler, and responded with 10 points, 15 rebounds, four assists and two steals. He followed it up with seven points, nine rebounds, five assists and a steal in win over Seton Hall, and was named the Big East Freshman of the Week.
“He’s an everyday guy,” English said of Mela. “He’s just gotten better and better every day. He’s a sponge. Even the mistakes he makes in games…it’s kind of good because you get to see them in the moment. They get to learn from them and improve.”
Another freshman, 6’10” Oswin Erhunmwunse, has also emerged over the last week. Erhunmwunse had his first career double-double in the win over Seton Hall, contributing 12 points and 10 rebounds with five blocks.
Jayden Pierre leads the team in scoring at 13.5 points and 2.6 assists per game. He scored a career-high 24 points at UConn, and followed it up with 18 points versus Butler. Pierre has improved his three-point shooting from a year ago when CU saw him last; he shot 36% from three and made 52 of them all season. This year he’s already made 40, and is hitting them at a 39% clip. He’s also become more efficient inside the arc, improving his two-point shooting from 45% last year to 52.8% this year.
Pierre scored 35 points with 15 assists in three games against the Jays a year ago — 10 points each in the two regular season meetings (3-of-8 on twos, 4-of-10 on threes) and 15 in the Big East Tourney. In that NYC matchup, he was 5-of-10 inside the arc and 1-of-6 outside with seven assists and zero turnovers. And he scored seven straight points in the decisive stretch of the game, leading the Friars to a 78-73 win.
Miami (FL) transfer Bensley Joseph is averaging 12.4 points per game for the season, but — are you sensing a theme here? — is coming off his best week of the season. Joseph scored 18 points on 3-of-6 shooting from three-point range against Butler, and followed it with 28 on the Pirates by making 7-of-9 from three.
“They’re playing their best basketball of the season right now,” Greg McDermott said on Monday, confirming what you probably suspected. “With both of us at three wins in the conference, it’s a huge game for both teams.”
The Bluejays started practice on Monday with a series of physical rebounding drills, as Providence is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. They’ve grabbed a board on 35.5% of their missed shots, 33rd best in D1. Erhunmwunse has been a beast on the offensive glass, grabbing an offensive board on an absurd 15.3% of missed shots when he’s been on the floor, but the entire team does a great job of creating second chances.
PC had 14 offensive rebounds in the win over Butler (turning them into 23 points), 15 in the loss to UConn (and 21 second-chance points), and even in the loss to Marquette hauled in 15 offensive boards en route to 18 second-chance points.
Defensively, they don’t turn opponents over very often (13.3% of possessions, 353rd in D1) or steal the ball (7.3% of possessions, 338rd). But even without a ton of ball pressure, they guard extremely well — opponents shoot just 30.1% from three (42nd best in D1) and 46.3% from two (43rd). Add it all up and their defense makes opponents take tough, contested shots, and with an adjusted tempo of 65.3 (290th slowest in D1) there’s fewer possessions in an average game to make up for missed chances.
At Monday’s press conference, McDermott was asked about the progress of Fedor Zugic — and the titanic struggles of Mason Miller, a career 38% shooter from three who’s made only three total 3’s this season (3-of-26, 11%). The two issues are intertwined, as an increase in Zugic’s minutes is likeliest to come at the expense of Miller.
“He still thinks a lot. Anytime you’re on the court and you have to think, your feet aren’t going to move,” McDermott said of Zugic. “It almost paralyzes you. That’s what September, October, November and December were supposed to be for, and he really got it thrown at him at Christmas time. At this stage of the game, Mason (Miller) is defensively better than he is and understands what we’re doing in the scouting report better. When the game’s being decided, right now I’ve got a little more confidence in the guy who’s been here.”
There’s no denying the shooting slump Miller is in; the numbers are what they are, and they’re ugly. There’s also no denying that opponents continue to guard him like the player who torched the nets from three a year ago (49-of-108, 45.4% — a figure that ranked 22nd best in all of college basketball). No one wants to be the team that he breaks out against. The spacing that results from that respect has opened things up offensively for the other four players on the floor with him. And defensively, he executes the scouting report and knows where to be.
As flawed a stat as plus-minus is overall, this is one case where it tells an interesting story — the Jays repeatedly win Miller’s minutes. They were +6 against Butler when he was on the floor, +12 against Marquette, and +14 against St. John’s. His impact doesn’t show up in flashier stats like points, rebounds or assists, but on the scoreboard.
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Providence has scored 84 points or more in each of its last three games. It marks just the second time ever (the other coming in their Final Four season of 1987, when Rick Pitino was their coach) that the team has accomplished this in three consecutive Big East games. They’ve never done it in four straight.
Other players to keep an eye on include Wesley Cardet, a 6’6” senior transfer from Chicago State who averages 10.2 points and 3.9 rebounds per game, and Corey Floyd Jr., who averages 8.2 points and 4.1 rebounds. Cardet has made 40% of his threes (20-of-50), and scored in double figures in five of the last six games. Floyd is coming off a game where he scored 14 against Seton Hall on 4-of-4 shooting inside the arc and 6-of-6 from the line.
Christ Essandoko (hamstring) and Rich Barron (concussion protocol) could be back tonight. Essandoko is a 7’0” freshman averaging 4.3 points and 4.3 rebounds per game, while Barron is a 6’5” sophomore averaging 4.3 points and 1.9 rebounds.
Steven Ashworth had 22 points and 12 rebounds at Butler, one game after he had 13 points and 10 asssists at Marquette. Ashworth is just the second Creighton player in the last 30 seasons to have a points/rebounds double-double and a points/assists double-double in back-to-back games. Baylor Scheierman is the only other Bluejay to do it.
Ryan Kalkbrenner and National Player of the Year frontrunner Johni Broome (Auburn) are in rare company as the nation’s only high major players to average at least 17.0 points, 8.0 rebounds and 2.5 blocked shots per game this season. In the last 25 seasons, only 10 high-major players have finished a season hitting each of those benchmarks.
Jackson McAndrew has made a three-pointer in each of his first five Big East games. He’s just Creighton’s third true freshman in the Big East era to make a triple in five straight games and joins Marcus Zegarowski as the only one of those to do it in the first five games of Big East play in his freshman campaign. He’s also scored in double-figures in four of his first five Big East games. In the last 30 seasons, he joins five other Bluejays that can say that as a freshmen to start a conference season. Four of the five (all but Zegarowski) went on to be named conference Freshman of the Year, and the last three to do it all eventually were NBA Draft picks (Zegarowski, Justin Patton and Doug McDermott).
Providence leads the all-time series 21-15 but Creighton leads 8-6 in Omaha. Since the Jays joined PC in the BIG EAST in 2013, the Friars have won 15-of-26 contests at all sites. The teams met three times last season, with Creighton winning Omaha (69-60) before the Friars won in Providence (91-87) and New York City (78-73).
The last five meetings in Omaha have been decided by a total of 29 points. Creighton & Providence have played in an overtime game against each other in 2018, 2019, 2023 and 2024.
On this date two years ago, Creighton defeated #19 Providence 73-67 in Omaha. With eight minutes left, the game was tied 54-apiece, as the Jays’ 16-point lead had evaporated with three of their most important players in deep foul trouble (Baylor Scheierman, Arthur Kaluma and Ryan Kalkbrenner).
With them back on the floor, the response was emphatic and immediate. Though they tied it, Providence never took the lead, with Arthur Kaluma putting the ball on the deck on the next possession to put CU in the lead. The Friars tied it once more at 56, and then Kaluma scored again off the dribble, drawing a foul in the process.
Ahead 63-58 with four minutes to go, Kalkbrenner blocked a jumper by Hopkins and the Friars’ Ed Croswell missed a putback badly in traffic. Sprinting down the floor, Kalkbrenner caught the ball and scored on an acrobatic shot at the rim to push the lead out to seven.
Creighton held them at arms-length from there, outscoring the Friars 17-11 to end the game. Providence never got closer than four in the final five minutes as Alexander was 6-for-6 at the line down the stretch and Kaluma’s lay-in with 55.7 left sealed the win.
The Bottom Line:
Vegas favors the Bluejays by 8.5, and ESPN’s BPI gives them 82.5% odds of victory. KenPom also favors the Jays by eight.
It’ll be higher scoring than Creighton/Providence games have typically been, but the Jays will get the win.
Creighton 83, Providence 74