Creighton’s 10th Big East season begins against the same opponent they started this era against — Marquette. The Jays enter the game on a five-game losing streak, which has understandably caused the level of anxiety and angst around the program to skyrocket.
It’s tempting to blame poor three-point shooting or even the “Let it Fly” mentality as the culprit, but that’s not entirely true. As we mentioned in the Morning After recap of the Arizona State loss, Creighton was better than you might think from three-point range in the two Las Vegas games. They were 21-of-54 (38.9%) overall, making 11-of-27 against ASU (40.7%) and 10-of-27 (37.0%) against BYU. Sure, that’s not torching-the-nets hot, but keep in mind the D1 average this season is 33.5%.
The ASU loss can be pinned largely on poor shooting on two-point shots (just 23-of-62 inside the arc). The problem in the BYU loss was defensive rebounding; the Cougars turned 16 offensive boards into 21 second-chance points, including the game-winner on their final shot. The Texas and Nebraska losses can be chalked up to poor three-point shooting (the 1-of-22 start at Texas, the school record 40 three-point attempts against Nebraska while making only 10).
That means there isn’t a quick fix that will suddenly turn their fortunes. It also means there isn’t one fatal flaw that has stopped this team in its tracks. They just have to get better at a whole bunch of little things (think screening, boxing out, defensive positioning, moving without the ball on offense), which admittedly is not a satisfying answer. Those things magnify their shooting woes, especially in five losses like these: a two-point loss to Arizona, a five-point loss at Texas, a three-point loss to BYU, a two-point loss to Arizona State. Even the 10-point loss to Nebraska, which is the worst of the bunch, might well have turned on the lack of execution in “little things.”
But back to the shooting. Using T-Rank’s sortable database, you can see the Jays’ offensive slide in black-and-white.
- Three-Point Shooting in their six wins: 37.8%
Three-Point Shooting in their five losses: 30.8% - Two-Point Shooting in their six wins: 61.6%
Two-Point Shooting in their five losses: 45.2% - Effective Field Goal Percentage in their six wins: 59.7%
Effective Field Goal Percentage in their five losses: 45.7% - Offensive Rebounding Rate in their six wins: 32.6%
Offensive Rebounding Rate in their five losses: 18.0%
Comparing individuals last year to this year, two of the Jays’ top three returning players have been significantly better from three-point range than a year ago. (Hat tip to radio voice of the Jays John Bishop for compiling these numbers)
Trey Alexander made 28.1% of his threes a year ago, and has made 41.7% so far this year — on more attempts (30.3% of his shots were threes last year, while 36.7% of his shots have been threes this year).
Arthur Kaluma made 26.5% of his threes last year, and has made 32.0% from outside this year, also on more attempts (36.5% of his shots were threes last year, while 41.7% of his shots have been threes this year).
Ryan Nembhard has struggled slightly, seeing his percentage drop from 31.1% to 28.9% on more shots (37.2% of his shots were threes a year ago, and 41.7% of his shots have been threes this year).
The opposite is true inside the arc — Alexander and Kaluma have been quite a bit worse shooting two-pointers this year versus last, while Nembhard has been better.
Some Jays fans have unfairly criticized Baylor Scheierman for not being Ryan Hawkins, which is an easy target given one replaced the other both on the roster and in the lineup. Statistically, it’s a wash — Scheierman is averaging 12 and 10 while Hawkins averaged 14 and 9. Hawkins was better inside the arc (53.3% versus 48.7%), while Scheierman has been better from outside (38.2% versus 35.8%). It is true that Hawkins was tremendous at almost all of the “little things” that plague this team right now.
It is also true that Hawkins was a very streaky player and that the Jays tended to go as Hawkins went. He scored in single digits eight times; the Jays lost six of those games. Their ugliest losses coincided with Hawkins’ worst nights. Laying any blame at Scheierman’s feet is misguided.
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One thing that has been consistent during this slump, especially in the two games Ryan Kalkbrenner has missed with a non-Covid illness (and the Nebraska game, where it’s presumed he was already sick because his energy level was much lower than usual), is the Jays inability to stop opponents in the paint. Nebraska, BYU, and Arizona State all had success there, though Fredrick King’s second-half emergence in the ASU loss began to stem the tide a bit.
That’s a problem against Marquette. They take more shots at the rim than nearly anyone else (10th most among power conference teams) while making those shots 73.4% of the time.
In beating Notre Dame earlier last weekend, the Golden Eagles scored 50 of their 79 points in the lane, courtesy of 15 offensive rebounds and 22 second-chance points. Forward Oso Ighodaro led the way, collectng his third-career double-double and second this season (along with 10 points and 10 rebounds vs. Georgia Tech) with 16 points and a career-best 18 boards (seven offensive).
The Golden Eagles are 8-3 and have gone from predictions near the bottom of the Big East to appearing in most NCAA Tournament bracket projections. A 26-point blowout of Baylor will do that for you — it skewed their analytic measurements in a good way if you’re a Marquette fan, and will pay dividends all season. So will the fact that their three non-conference losses all came to KenPom Top 35 teams by a total of 11 points (75-70 to Purdue, 58-55 to Mississippi State, 80-77 in OT to Wisconsin).
They have four players averaging in double-figures, led by Kam Jones (16.4 ppg. with 31 three-pointers). He was named the Big East Player of the Week on Monday after scoring 20 or more points in three of the team’s last four outungs. In those games, Jones has averaged 21.8 points per game and combined to shoot 57.4 percent (31-of-54) from the floor overall and 14-of-31 (45.2 percent) from behind the 3-point line.
- Tip: 7:30pm
- Venue: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
- TV: FS1
- Announcers: Lisa Byington and Stephen Bardo
- In Omaha: Cox channel 78 (SD), 1078 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 620 (SD), 1620 (HD)
- Outside Omaha: FS1 Channel Finder
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 219, Dish Network channel 150
- Cable Cutters: Available on all major streaming platforms
- Streaming on the Fox Sports app and website
- Radio: 1620AM, 101.9FM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Taylor Stormberg
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- Point guard Tyler Kolek has six-or-more assists in nine of 10 games, and ranks first in the league and 3rd in nation in assists (7.8 apg.)
- Other Golden Eagles to look for: Olivier-Maxence Prosper (15.1 ppg.), Oso Ighodaro (10.9 ppg., 6.9 rpg.) and super sub David Joplin (10.4 ppg.).
- Marquette made their first 11 field goal attempts from the floor last week against NC Central. The Golden Eagles would go on to shoot 75.9 percent (22-of-29) in the first half, its best mark since 72.4 percent against Western Carolina on Nov. 30, 2016. Forward Olivier-Maxence Prosper had 14 points by halfime, including 10 straight in the opening minutes. MU finished the game 63.2 percent (36-of-57), led by Prosper’s 11-of-14 performance. The team’s effort from the field was its best since knocking down 64.9 percent of its shots against IUPUI on Dec. 14, 2013, an 86-50 win.
- Creighton owns a 17-7 record in its last 24 conference openers, including a 2-1 mark against Marquette. Greg McDermott is 12-9 all-time in conference openers as a Division I head coach, including an 8-4 mark at Creighton (6-3 in the Big East).
- Making his second career start, freshman center Fredrick King had career-highs with 16 points, 11 rebounds and five blocked shots in Monday’s game vs. Arizona State.
Per Basketball-Reference.com, King is the seventh different freshmen with 16 points, 11 rebounds, five blocks and no turnovers in the same game since 2010-11, a list that includes Chet Holmgren, Armando Bacot, Mo Bamba, Anthony Davis (twice), Thik Bol and Chris Horton. - Friday marks Greg McDermott’s 900th as a head coach at the college level. He’s won each 100th anniversary game (100, 200, 300, etc…) to date. He brings a 562-337 record (.625) in 29 years, including a 282-142 (.665) mark at Creighton.
Marquette leads the 100-year old series with Creighton by a 56-39 margin, but Creighton has won seven of the past eight meetings. Creighton leads the series 11-8 since the teams became Big East rivals. CU is attempting to beat the Eagles in a fifth straight match-up for the first time since 1932-36.
December 16th is the 55th anniversary of Bob Portman scoring a single-game Creighton record 51 points against Wisconsin-Milwaukee. He also made a school-record 19-of-23 free throws in the 109-81 victory in 1967.
Since Portman graduated in 1969 no Creighton player had worn No. 33 before Fredrick King this season, as it had been retired more than 40 years ago. In the offseason, Greg McDermott asked Portman for (and was granted) permission for King to wear it. Portman scored 1,876 career points for CU and still owns single-game records for points (51), field goals (19) and free throws (19 ) in a game.
The Bottom Line:
The consensus is a three-point Marquette win — Vegas and KenPom both favor the Golden Eagles by three — while ESPN’s BPI gives Marquette a 57.1% chance of victory.
Creighton is 4-0 all-time inside Fiserv Forum, while Marquette is 54-13 against all other teams there. Of the 42 different teams to play Marquette in its five-year old venue, only four are unbeaten (Creighton is 4-0, UConn is 2-0, UCLA and Oklahoma State are both 1-0). Despite the Jays’ loss on Monday, it felt like they turned a corner without Kalkbrenner, with Fredrick King’s emergence the biggest development.
I think the Jays flip the predictions here and win by three.
Creighton 74, Marquette 71
