Usually in the second matchup of a season, there’s some things you can takeaway from the first meeting. I’m not sure that’s true as the Bluejays get set to take on Seton Hall a second time. Earlier this month, Creighton led by as many as 42 points, boatracing an NCAA Tournament caliber team out of the gym with a combination of offensive skill and defensive execution at the same time that we’ve seldom if ever seen in the McDermott Era.
“No question, we played one of the best games of our season when we played here,” Greg McDermott said on his postgame radio show after Saturday’s win against UConn. “And they played probably the worst game they’ve played this season. That happened on the same night. We’re going to see a much different Seton Hall team this time.”
How much of what happened that night was fluky? Seton Hall shot 3-for-18 (16.7%) from three-point range, their worst of the year. Their 17 turnovers are the second-most in a game this season. Their 53 points scored are their lowest total by a hefty margin: they only have one other game below 70. They missed 11 free throws, far and away their most in any game.
Meanwhile, it was Creighton’s best offensive night of the season. They were 13-of-24 (54.2%) from three-point range, their second-highest number of made threes this year and their best percentage made. They shot 63% inside the arc (21-of-33). And defensively, the 53 points Seton Hall scored are the lowest for any Bluejay opponent this year, fewer than even North Dakota State and Kennesaw State managed (58 apiece). Their 11 steals would be a season-best if not for the 16 they had against a terrible Nebraska team.
And two giant runs controlled the game. CU made its first seven shots and raced to a 17-4 run to bury Seton Hall in an early hole, and then in the second half used a 28-5 run to turn a 54-37 lead into an 82-42 romp. So again, what to make of all that?
Well, there are some things to indicate this might just be a bad matchup for the Pirates, the way Butler and Providence have been bad matchups for the Bluejays in recent years. The Pirates employ a traditional two-guard, two-forward, center lineup, and those types of teams have struggled against this particular group of Bluejays that go small so often.
The Jays have won three straight in the series and ended last year’s game in Omaha on a 30-10 run, making 12 of their final 13 shots. In particular, Creighton has been really effective in forcing Seton Hall’s big men to defend in places that make them uncomfortable — pulling them out of the paint, making them run in transition, forcing them to defend the perimeter instead of the rim. By utilizing multiple screens, Seton Hall’s bigs either got lost or couldn’t recover quick enough before the Jays scored. Repeatedly. Is that something Kevin Willard and his staff have found a solution for? Willard tried to go with a smaller lineup in the first meeting, putting one of his best defensive players on the bench to start the game because of the issues with ball screens that his bigs have faced. It blew up in his face.
The Pirates have had two of their last three scheduled games postponed due to COVID issues, so they enter Wednesday’s game having played just twice since the January 6 loss in Omaha. It will be their first home game in 25 days. They’ve had a looooong time to prep for Creighton. Suffice it to say they’ll be ready to go for this one.
Individually, Seton Hall is still led by their all-everything player Sandro Mamukelashvili. He leads them in scoring (18.4 points per game) and rebounds (7.0 per game), and is second in assists (3.3 per game). He can score from lots of places — on the block, off the dribble, and on jump shots. He draws tons of fouls and has made 75.0% of his free throws (60-of-80). By comparison, no one for Creighton has taken more than 53 free throws this year.
In the January 6 game, Mamu scored 14 (his third-lowest total this year) with just five rebounds (his second-lowest total). The Jays defended him without being whistled for fouls; Mamu attempted just three free throws. It continued a trend against the Jays as Mamu scored seven with 12 boards in Omaha a year ago, and 13 with six boards in Newark. Solid numbers, but below his standards.
6’6″ junior Jared Rhoden didn’t play huge roles in the two games against CU a year ago, scoring 20 combined points, but has emerged from the shadows of Seton Hall’s departing seniors to put up big numbers this year. He’s scored in double figures in all but one game, and ranks in the top 10 in the Big East in scoring (7th, 15.8 ppg), rebounding (10th, 6.9), free-throw percentage (7th, 83.1) and minutes (8th, 34.3 mpg).
How Rhoden goes tells a lot about how Seton Hall fares. He’s averaging 17.9 points while making 40.5 of his threes in their nine wins; he’s averaging just 12.7 while making 22.7% of his threes in their six losses. He scored 10 in Omaha on January 6, but only attempted two shots behind the arc and made zero.
Point guard Shavar Reynolds had one of the worst games of his career in the first meeting. He scored zero points, missed all three of his shot attempts, missed both of his free throws, turned it over five times, and had just one assist. But he’s still the player who has buried two game-winning shots in the final minute already this year, and who ranks in the top five in the Big East in free throw percentage (3rd, 86.1 pct.), assists (3rd, 4.5 assists per game), steals (4th, 1.7 spg) and three-point percentage (2nd, 45.7).
And one player to keep an eye on: 7’2″, 270-pound Ike Obiagu leads the Big East and ranks fifth in all of D1 with 42 blocked shots, averaging 2.8 per game. He’s grabbed an average of 2.1 offensive boards per game. And yet in the first meeting, Kevin Willard went with a small lineup to start the game and the Pirates trailed 17-4 before Obiagu got into the game. He played just 23 minutes as a result. Willard admitted it was a mistake after the game; will Obiagu’s (assumed) return to the starting lineup and a bigger load of minutes make a difference? Or will it just give Creighton another big man to run ragged through ball screens 25 feet from the basket?
- Tip: 6:00pm
- Venue: Prudential Center, Newark, NJ
- TV: FS1
- Announcers: Kevin Burkhardt and Casey Jacobsen
- In Omaha: Cox channel 78 (SD), 1078 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 620 (SD), 1620 (HD)
- Outside Omaha: FS1 Channel Finder
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 219, Dish Network channel 150
- Streaming on FoxSportsGO
- Creighton Radio: 1620AM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Taylor Stormberg
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- National Radio: Westwood One
- Announcers: Scott Graham and Donny Marshall
- Syndicated nationwide
- Satellite Radio:
- Creighton broadcast: XM 201
- Seton Hall broadcast: XM 382
- The Pirates rank second in the Big East in free throw percentage (73.7) and rank second in free throw attempts (338 FTA).
- Seton Hall ranks 43rd in KenPom, has a NET ranking of 54 and has played seven games against “Quad 1” opponents, which is tied for most in the Big East. The Pirates are projected to play 11 “Q1” games this season, the most in the Big East, and boast the 19th toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom.
- Seton Hall and Creighton have finished with identical Big East records in each of the last four seasons. 13-5, 9-9, 10-8, 10-8
- Denzel Mahoney has averaged 16.0 points in three career games against Seton Hall, scoring 18, 16 and 14 points. He’s shot 50 percent from the field, 53.3 percent from three-point range and has been perfect in eight free throw attempts. And he’s played integral roles in the outcome of each game. Last year in Newark, Mahoney hit a dagger three-pointer with 1:07 left to give Creighton a 78-74 lead. In the rematch in Omaha, Creighton led 61-57 with 4:45 left before a Mahoney scored eight points in a game-ending 16-3 run that clinched CU a share of the Big East title. And in the first meeting this year, Mahoney had nine points in the first seven minutes of the second half to help CU build a 19-point edge that would eventually reach as large as 42.
- Damien Jefferson has scored in double-figures in 13-of-15 games this year, and he’s upped his average to 13.0 points per contest. He’s been even better in the past six games, averaging 16.5 points per game on 60.0 percent shooting from the field, which includes 34-for-48 marksmanship (70.8 percent) from two-point range.
- With a win, Creighton would sweep its third Big East opponent already this season (Seton Hall, St. John’s, UConn). And they’d start 8-3 or better in league play for the first time since the 2013-14 team opened its first Big East season with a 9-2 start in conference action after 11 games.
Seton Hall leads the all-time series with Creighton 14-9, including a 9-4 advantage in Newark. But in the last meeting, Creighton led by as much as 42 in an eventual 89-53 win in Omaha.
The 36-point win is Creighton’s second-largest ever in Big East action, and is tied for Seton Hall’s third-largest loss ever in league play — which is saying something for a charter member of the Big East. It is their largest league setback since falling 99-57 vs. UConn on Feb. 11, 2006.
On January 27, 2013 Creighton made their final trip to Carbondale, Illinois as members of the Missouri Valley Conference (and in all likelihood, for the final time ever). The 81-51 blowout win bared little resemblance to the grind-it-out games with the Salukis that littered schedules in the late 1990s and 2000s. More on that storyline from Ott’s Thoughts:
“I wonder what Brody Deren was thinking as he sat courtside next to T. Scott Marr Sunday night.
Deren, a former Creighton star, accompanied the Jays for the game in Carbondale, sharing his expertise while doing color analysis next to Marr on the radio broadcast of Creighton’s 81-51 win over Southern Illinois.
The 30-point thrashing of the Salukis gave the Bluejays a 10th straight win against SIU, with the average margin of victory during that stretch a whopping 14 points per game.
Sunday’s victory was Creighton’s fifth straight win in Carbondale. Deren saw a much different SIU Arena during his three seasons at CU. His Creighton teams beat SIU three times, but two of those victories came in St. Louis (2002, 2003) and the other happened at the Civic Auditorium (2002). Deren’s Jays went 0-3 in Carbondale, running into a Salukis team that went to NCAA Tournaments every season Deren was at Creighton.
I can’t speak for the big man, but I’m not sure Deren nor I would have believed you 10 years ago if you said Creighton would post 10 straight wins over SIU, 5 of which coming in Carbondale, in the coming seasons.”
Neither would have believed you if you’d told them this one would be the last, either.
The Bottom Line:
KenPom predicts a 75-73 Creighton win. Vegas’ opening line favors Creighton by 1.5. And ESPN’s BPI gives Creighton a 55.7% chance of victory. So the experts think it’ll be close.
If the Jays can bust out of their mini shooting slump, the might be able to sneak out of Newark with a win. Seton Hall’s been inactive most of January, though, and you can bet they’ll be motivated after what happened January 6 in Omaha. My hunch is the Jays lose this one.
Seton Hall 78, Creighton 76
