Tuesday night, Creighton blew out North Dakota State 80-55 in their most complete performance of the season so far. I wrote a lot about Ryan Kalkbrenner’s latest big game in our recap, but the return of Shereef Mitchell can’t be understated. They’ve looked like a different team in the games he’s played in, so having him available as the Jays enter the toughest stretch of their non-conference schedule is huge.
“This team needs me to speak up and guide them through some things, because this is their first rodeo,” Mitchell said on the postgame radio show after Tuesday’s win. “Marcus (Zegarowski), Damien (Jefferson), Mitch (Ballock) and Denzel (Mahoney) all talked me through what was going to need to happen this year. They talked to me about taking that leadership mantle and helping out all the young guys. Coach Mac says he feels like I’m a calming presence when I’m out on the floor, and I think that’s an important thing for this team to have, to know their leader is out there with them, fighting with them, helping them through the struggles, because it’s not always going to be easy. Them knowing that I’m here with them and for them is going to be a big key to our success.”
That’s what I’m here for, to help them out. They know that I’m bought in just as much as they’re bought in, and whether I’m playing or not, they’re going to get my support, they’re going to get my effort, and I’m going to be the best leader that I can possibly be for this team.”
That calming presence and leadership will be put to the test over the next two weeks, as the Bluejays play #19 Iowa State, #12 BYU, Arizona State, and #6 Villanova in the span of 13 days, with Finals Week sandwiched in between. The Cyclones are first up, and come into Omaha with a sparkling 7-0 record bolstered by double-digit wins over Xavier (#25 at the time, 34th in KenPom) and Memphis (#9 at the time, 29th in KenPom) to win the NIT Season Tip-Off.
They’ve played two Creighton opponents so far, leading wire-to-wire in a 84-73 win over Kennesaw State, and so thoroughly dominating Arkansas-Pine Bluff — leading 68-38 at one point — that coach Soloman Bozeman called timeout to make his team run baseline-to-baseline sprints in front of the Hilton Coliseum crowd. It goes without saying that the Jays fell behind by double-digits to both of those teams before rallying to win, but we’ll say it anyway.
It’s quite a stunning turn of events for a program that went 2-22 a year ago and lost 16 games in a row to end the season. New coach T.J. Otzelberger remade the roster overnight, replacing all five starters and 87% of their points scored. It is possible to do that and also win right away, despite what you may have heard.
Otzelberger has done it with a savvy mix of transfers who fit the style he wants to play, but it also helps to bring in a freshman point guard like Tyrese Hunter who’s ready to contribute right away. He’s one of two freshmen in the nation averaging 12 points, five assists, three rebounds and two steals per game. The other? Creighton freshman Ryan Nembhard.
Hunter’s assist rate is 33.5%, meaning of ISU’s made baskets while he’s been on the floor, he’s had the assist on 1/3 of them. That’s really, really good — it ranks 48th nationally. For comparison, Creighton hasn’t had a player with a rate above 30% since Mo Watson in 2016-17. Marcus Zegarowski was 27.3% in 2019-20 and 23.9% last year; Nembhard is 25.8% this year. That gives you an idea of what kind of facilitator Hunter has been. If there’s a knock on him, it’s that he’s been a bit turnover prone; his assist-to-turnover ratio looks good at close to 2:1 but the raw numbers are a bit different (37 assists, 19 turnovers).
The best of their transfers is Izaiah Brockington, a 6’4” senior who played the last two seasons for Penn State, has been nothing short of sensational for the Cyclones. Averaging 16.6 points and 7.6 rebounds a game, Brockington has had three double-doubles in seven games. He had 23 points and 13 rebounds against Alabama State, 10 points and 11 boards against Oregon State, and 23 points and 10 boards against Arkansas-Pine Bluff. His most impressive game came in their win over Xavier, though — 30 points on 8-of-13 shooting inside the arc and 4-of-6 shooting from three-point range, to go along with six rebounds and three assists. He was a one-man wrecking machine.
Especially if you let him drive to his left. Time after time, he got to his left against Musketeer defenders, leading Travis Steele to call out his own team’s inability to follow the scouting report — where they drilled home the idea that you can’t let Brockington get to his left — in his press conference.
Gabe Kalscheur, a 6’4” senior transfer from another Big Ten school — Minnesota — is averaging 13.6 points. If Brockington is Scoring Option 1A, Kalscheur is their definite 1B. They’ve combined to score 40% of Iowa State’s points so far this year. While Brockington is primarily an issue inside the arc for opposing defenses, with 84% of his shot attempts coming inside the arc, Kalscheur is the opposite. 41.4% of his shots have been three-pointers and 75% of his shots have been jumpers (either inside or outside the arc). They compliment each other well and make Iowa State a difficult team to defend.
Defense is where the Cyclones have really been impressive, though. They’ve held opponents to a 93.6% adjusted efficiency (46th nationally), and a 43.6% effective field goal percentage (27th best). They’ve forced a turnover on 26.6% of opponent’s possessions — 9th best. Because their guards are so good at denying both good looks and passes on the perimeter, it’s been difficult for opponents to get the ball inside on them. Just 25% of opponent’s shots have come at the rim, which is the 9th-fewest in D1.
If you want to go more in-depth on exactly what they’re doing schematically, this post from Iowa State site “Wide Right Natty Light” breaks it all down on film.
All of that is problematic. Creighton turns it over at a high rate — 20.0% of their possessions, 223rd most. CU has taken 68% of their shots inside the arc and a whopping 41.5% at the rim. Whichever team forces their will on the other is likely to win.
This is one heckuva test for the Jays. ISU has already played two NCAA Tourney caliber teams and beaten both by double-digits. CU has only played one such team (Colorado State) and lost fairly convincingly. ISU beat the two teams Creighton has also played — teams CU was frankly lucky to beat — by double-digits, too.
Oddly, it’s a test of sorts for Iowa State, too. Despite their 7-0 record and Top 25 ranking, the computer metrics think it’s a bit of a smokescreen so far. KenPom ranked Iowa State #80, T-Rank has them at #81, and ESPN’s BPI ranks them #61. Both KenPom and ESPN’s BPI predict a Bluejay win.
- Tip: 8:00pm
- Venue: CHI Health Center Omaha
- TV: FS1
- Announcers: Matt Schumacker and Nick Bahe
- In Omaha: Cox channel 78 (SD), 1078 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 620 (SD), 1620 (HD)
- Outside Omaha: FS1 Channel Finder
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 219, Dish Network channel 150
- Cable Cutters: Available on all major streaming platforms
- Streaming on the Fox Sports app and website
- Radio: 1620AM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Josh Dotzler
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- ISU’s defense is allowing just 60.4 points per game, with opponents shooting 38.9 percent from the field and 25.8 percent behind the arc (19th nationally). ISU averages 10.1 steals (24th).
- Brockington and Kalscheur tallied 30 points in back-to-back games, the first Cyclone teammates to reach the 30-point mark in consecutive games since Jeff Grayer and Lafester Rhodes in 1988. ISU is one of five teams nationally with two different players that have scored 30 points in a game.
- Former Creighton recruit Tristan Enaruna, who picked Kansas over the Jays, is another of Iowa State’s transfer newcomers. He’s started all seven games for ISU and has carved out a nice role as a third cog offensively, averaging 6.0 points and 3.4 rebounds per game.
- Ryan Nembhard scored in double-figures each of Creighton’s first six games before a season-low nine points last Saturday vs. SIUE. In the last 27 years, the only other newcomers to score in double-figures during CU’s first six games had been true freshman Doug McDermott (8 straight in 2010-11), redshirt freshman Justin Patton (8 in 2016-17) and Kansas State transfer Marcus Foster (8 in 2016-17), who was a junior.
- Nembhard’s 104 points through eight games are the most by any Bluejay freshman since Doug McDermott had 116 points at that point in 2010-11 CU’s three freshmen since 1994-95 to score 90 or more points through eight games (Ryan Sears, Patton and McDermott) all went on to be named Conference Freshman of the Year.
- When Greg McDermott was head coach at Iowa State from 2006-2010, his assistant coaches included current ISU head coach T.J. Otzelberger and current ISU assistant Daniyal Robinson. And one of Iowa State’s other current assistants, Kyle Green, was on McDermott’s staff at Northern Iowa.
Creighton and Iowa State have met 31 times, with the Cyclones holding a 16-15 lead thanks to their bizarre 91-88 win in the last meeting on November 21, 2010. In Greg McDermott’s fourth game as head coach of the Jays, he took the team to Des Moines for a game he had helped arrange…while he was head coach of Iowa State. Hy-Vee handed out free “Battle of the Birds” t-shirts to a capacity crowd split almost 50/50 between two mostly cordial fan bases (aside from the lusty boos directed toward McDermott during introductions by the Cyclone faithful).
And it was a fun game, especially the insane second half that saw the teams combine to score 99 points. ISU shot 65.5% in the second half (19-29), making 8-13 from behind the arc (61.5%). CU was 51.1% in the second half (16-31) and 7-14 from three-point range. But it ended in controversy on both sides.
Trailing 83-78, Antoine Young buried a three to cut ISU’s lead to two with 36 seconds left. With 15 seconds left, he assisted Kenny Lawson on a wide-open three to make it 87-85 ISU. After ISU missed three of four free throws to leave the door open a crack, Young was fouled to stop him from attempting a game-tying three with 3 seconds to play. He made the first free throw, intentionally missed the second, grabbed his own rebound…and in the process of throwing up a desperation shot, he was fouled with 1.6 seconds left. Young hit both free throws to tie the game at 88. And then Iowa State’s Jamie Vanderbeken took the inbounds pass, dribbled twice to the top of the key, turned, and — depending on whether you were wearing zebra stripes or not — got off a game-winning shot or failed to get off the shot in time.
The video board inside Wells Fargo Arena showed a replay that clearly indicated the shot was released late; the red lights were lit up while the ball was still fully in his hands. But there were no courtside monitors for officials to use in a review, so while Greg McDermott pointed to the scoreboard and pleaded with them to look, they weren’t allowed to.
From our recap:
“Both teams battled and played a wonderfully entertaining game. Both deserved to see the game played to a controversy-free result — Iowa State fans maintained the foul on Antoine Young that led to his game-tying free throws shouldn’t have been called, while Creighton fans maintained the game-winning shot was released late — and everyone was robbed of what would surely have been an exhilarating overtime period.”
The last time Creighton played on December 4, Nebraska was whistled for a personal foul, a technical foul on a player, and a technical foul on their head coach…all on the same play. The Huskers had been trailing 46-45 in a back-and-forth game played at their pace; by the time Doug McDermott and Grant Gibbs combined to make five of six free throws, the Jays led 51-45, the home crowd had been whipped into a frenzy, Creighton was able to ride the momentum to push the pace faster, and the outcome was never in doubt again.
The Bottom Line:
Iowa State has respect of voters and pundits, but the computer metrics aren’t convinced. Creighton looked a lot better on Tuesday night than they had in earlier games, and is at home. Just about every where you look — KenPom, ESPN’s BPI, Vegas — thinks this is a toss-up. That usually favors the team who takes better care of the ball and has more experience. ISU has both of those. Or the team who’s battle tested in close games decided late. CU has the edge there.
It feels like the kind of game Creighton figures out a way to win at home.
Jays 73, #19 Iowa State 69