Since losing the Big East opener at Marquette in mid-December, Creighton is 8-2 in league play with seven double-digit wins. The latest came on Wednesday night, when they beat Georgetown 63-53. It’s the third straight game Creighton’s won where they shot worse than 35% from three-point range (vs Providence at home, on the road at Butler and Georgetown). In the first five games this season where they were sub-35% from the perimeter, they went 1-4 with the lone win coming against St. Thomas.
For the entirety of Greg McDermott’s tenure on the Hilltop, it’s been a popular refrain anytime they go into a slump that the Bluejays have no Plan B when outside shots aren’t falling — you can see it on social media, on the Underground, and anywhere Jays fans congregate virtually or otherwise.
Offensively, in 2022-23, that might be true to an extent. They have fallen into the trap of taking threes in bunches from time to time (look no further than the Nebraska debacle for evidence of that). But offense is the wrong place to look when you’re searching for an alternative path to victory, because Creighton’s Plan B is not on the offensive end of the floor.
It’s their defense.
The Jays now have the 17th best adjusted defensive efficiency in the country, after finishing 19th a year ago and 32nd two years ago. Remember when the 2011-12 team ranked 222nd, and reported for fall camp in 2012 with that number emblazoned on the back of their practice jerseys as a scarlet letter, a constant reminder that they had to be better? Reputations are hard to break free from, especially in sports, and the idea that Greg McDermott’s teams score a ton of points but play poor defense is rooted in teams from a decade ago — not in the present day.
Coaches and programs change and evolve over time. And this is now the third consecutive season where the Jays, with mostly different personnel, have a top-30 defense. It’s time the perception around CU hoops changes too. It already has inside the walls of the Championship Center.
“Obviously we prepare more on the defensive end than the offensive end because we know we can score. Shots weren’t falling tonight, but our MO is defense,” Trey Alexander said on the postgame radio show after the win at Georgetown. “We’re a great defensive team. In my opinion, we’re the best defensive team in the Big East.”
The numbers back up that assessment. In league-only games, Creighton’s adjusted defensive efficiency has been nearly FOUR POINTS better than anyone else in the league — the Jays aDE is 94.9, and the next closest team is Seton Hall at 98.7. No one else is under 100. And they’re #1 across the board — they’re also the best in the Big East in effective field goal percentage defense, free throw rate (how often their opponent gets to the line), raw two-point shooting percentage, and block percentage. They even give up the fewest offensive rebounds. It might not be a defense that makes opponents uncomfortable in a traditional sense — they’re 10th in turnovers forced, and last in steals — but it’s absolutely a defense that locks opponents down.
As Plan B’s go, relying on an elite defense to carry you when shots don’t fall is a pretty damn good Plan B.
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Villanova’s first year post-Jay Wright has been bumpy. They enter Saturday’s game with a 10-12 record, and have lost five of their last seven games. Their 4-7 record in the Big East consists entirely of season sweeps of Georgetown and St. John’s, which means that against everyone else they’re 0-7.
Injuries have derailed them all season. Justin Moore tore his achilles in the Elite Eight a year ago and missed the first 20 games. Then Trey Patterson (sports hernia), Jordan Longino (left knee soreness), Brendan Hausen and Nnanna Njoku (concussions), Caleb Daniels (broken nose) and Cam Whitmore (right thumb surgery) missed multiple weeks of practice leading up to the start of ‘22-23.
Whitmore, the preseason Big East Freshman of the Year, missed seven games. Longino hasn’t practiced since early January and has missed the last seven games. Njoku returned from his concussion and promptly injured his foot, and hasn’t played yet in 2023. In fact, Villanova has yet to play a single game this season with its top six expected scorers by average – Daniels, Dixon, Whitmore, Slater, Moore and Longino – together in the lineup.
Regardless of lineup, Villanova has played at a glacially slow pace. Their adjusted tempo is 63.6, which ranks 336th. Their average possession lasts 19.1 seconds, 328th slowest nationally. They grind games down into slugfests, and they’re extremely successful at it — in 22 games, just three times have they had 70 or more possessions in a game and one of those was an overtime contest. What’s really wild is that they do this while being bad on the offensive glass. This isn’t your typical slow-paced team who uses up as much of the shot clock as possible, puts up a shot with little regard for whether they can make it or not, and then tries to get a rebound and an easy putback against a tired/scrambling defense. They grab a board on just 23.1% of their missed shots, 330th in D1. Whatever shot they get, usually late in the shot clock, is the only shot they get on that possession.
Part of that might stem from the fact that they take an extraordinarily huge number of threes — 48.2% of their shot attempts have come from behind the arc. Only six teams in the entire country take more threes as a percentage of their overall shot attempts. And they’re not a good shooting team, making just 33.5% of their threes (197th overall) — and even worse in Big East play, at 32.6% in league games. Beyond the injuries, it becomes pretty obvious why they’re 10-12. They look and play like a team who’s trying to be Jay Wright Villanova, without the execution to really pull it off.
Individually, they have four players averaging in double-figures, a quartet led by Caleb Daniels (16.2 ppg.) and Eric Dixon (15.6 ppg.). Dixon has scored in double figures in 21 of the Wildcats’ 22 games, and ranks tenth in the Big East in scoring (15.6 points per game), 14th in Field Goal Percentage (51.2%), and 13th in rebounding (6.5 rebounds per game).
Whitmore has shown flashes of why he was the preseason POY in the league, averaging 12.5 since debuting in mid-December, and showing an ability to score from all over the floor. He’s their best three-point shooter, and at 6’7” he presents some matchup issues.
The return of Justin Moore is a big development. He’s contributed 14 total points, eight rebounds and eight assists in two games since his return, and if can round into form by March, Villanova will be the team no one wants to draw in the Big East Tournament.
- Tip: 6:30pm
- Venue: CHI Health Center Omaha
- TV: FOX
- Announcers: Gus Johnson and Jim Jackson
- In Omaha: Cox channel 10 (SD), 1010 (HD); CenturyLink Prism channel 42 (SD), 1042 (HD); DirecTV 42; Dish Network 42 or 5203
- Outside Omaha: Over the air on your local FOX affiliate
- Streaming on the FOX Sports App
- Creighton Radio: 1620AM, 101.9FM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Taylor Stormberg
- Streaming on 1620TheZone.com and the 1620 The Zone mobile app
- Simulcast on SiriusXM channel 384 and on SXM app channel 974
- Villanova Radio: Across the Villanova iHeart Radio Network
- Announcers: Ryan Fannon and Whitey Rigsby
- Simulcast on SiriusXM channel 383 and on SXM app channel 973
- Villanova has been in Omaha since Thursday, flying in from Milwaukee after their loss to Marquette on Wednesday night. It’s part of a crazy month of February for them, where they’ll play nine games in 28 days.
- Villanova is 9-2 this season when holding opponents below 70 points. On the other side of that coin, VU is 3-0 in Big East action when they score 70 or more points, and 1-7 when it fails to reach that number.
- Villanova has the second-best win percentage in the country since the start of the 2013-14 season, which coincides with the realignment of the Big East. Villanova is 273-65 (.808), just behind a Gonzaga program that is 302-40 (.883). No one else has won more than 80 percent of its games. Of the 90 different schools to play Villanova in that time, only 29 have actually beaten the Wildcats. Creighton is one of 12 schools to post multiple victories over the Wildcats in that time. Creighton’s six victories over Villanova are tied for the second-most by any Wildcat opponent in that span with Butler, and one behind Marquette’s seven.
- Creighton is 0-13 all-time when making eight three-pointers or less against Villanova (including three meetings in the 1950’s long before the 3-point line existed), but 6-4 when making nine or more trifectas. CU has hit 74-of-150 treys (49.3%) in the six wins, but 94-of-336 triples (28.0%) in the 17 losses.
- Creighton has outscored the opposition by an average of 16.4 points (79.4 – 63.0) during its five-game winning streak, which includes victories over No. 19 Providence and No. 13 Xavier. The Jays have shot 49.5 percent from the field and 79.5 percent at the line during this stretch while also dishing 77 assists against just 45 turnovers. Defensively, Creighton is holding foes to 40.7 percent shooting from the field in those five games and CU has outscored the opposition 206-145 before halftime.
- Trey Alexander in the past five games has averaged 13.4 points per game and has not committed a turnover in 158 minutes of action.
Villanova leads the all-time series with Creighton, 17-6, including a 5-4 record in Omaha. Five of the last six meetings have been decided by double-figures, with CU winning three of those games. The teams traded lopsided blowouts last season, with CU winning 79-59 in Omaha on Dec. 17 and the Wildcats gaining revenge 75-41 in Pennsylvania 20 days later. The Wildcats won the rubber match in the Big East Tournament final, 54-48.
On February 4, 1988, Creighton defeated Tulsa 94-92 in a double-OT thriller at the Civic. Senior Rod Mason scored a career-high 33 points, including a three-pointer with 26 seconds left in regulation to tie the game and four free throws in the final eight seconds of the second overtime to clinch the win.
Tulsa led by five with 1:03 to play in regulation, but missed the front end of three straight one-and-ones, giving CU the opportunity to mount a comeback. First freshman Chad Gallagher hit a bucket to make it 68-65, then fellow freshman Bob Harstad tipped in a missed jumper to cut the deficit to 68-67. Tulsa finally hit a pair of free throws on the next possession, but Mason’s three send the game to OT.
The tables turned in the first overtime. Leading 81-79, CU’s James Farr missed the front end of a one-and-one with seven seconds left to give Tulsa a chance. Then Farr compounded the mistake by fouling the Golden Hurricane’s Tracy Moore with one second to play, and he made both free throws — the second a high-bouncing shot that added a flair of drama to the moment — to send the game to a second overtime.
Duan Cole started the second OT with a strip-steal and fast break layup to put CU ahead, where they’d stay. In the final minute, Mason hit a pair of free throws and following a quick basket from Tulsa’s Brian Loyd, they called a timeout they didn’t have. The technical foul gave CU two more free throws, which Mason hit to give them a 92-89 lead. Cole followed with a pair of free throws to make it 94-89, and they’d need both as Moore nailed a three at the buzzer to make the final score 94-92.
The Bottom Line:
FOX’s commercials for this primetime network game have touted as a battle between “traditional Big East powers.” So I guess that’s where Creighton is now, huh? Wild.
ESPN’s BPI gives Creighton a 91% chance of victory, and Vegas favors the Jays by 7.5. KenPom is taking the over and predicting an eight point Bluejay win. I think it’ll be slightly more.
Creighton 72, Villanova 62
