[dropcap]Here’s[/dropcap] the good news: Creighton is playing in the Sweet 16 for the first time in the modern era of the NCAA Tournament (since it expanded to 64 teams in 1985). The bad news: their reward is a game against a team so dominant that for four months when college basketball pundits have been asked to predict the national champion, the question has been posited as “Gonzaga, Baylor or the field.” Despite the unpredictable nature of March and the safer bet being that any of 66 other teams would win, many pundits have still predicted Gonzaga to be that champ.
While every opponent at this stage of the tourney is either really great, really hot, or both, Gonzaga is a uniquely difficult opponent. The Bulldogs are 28-0 and have won an NCAA Division 1 record 25 straight games by double digits, and 30 of the last 32 — they haven’t won a game by fewer than 10 points since December 2, when they beat West Virginia 87-82. They have the #1 adjusted offensive efficiency in D1, and the #7 adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom, making them the rare team to rank in the Top 10 on both sides of the ball. They have three of the country’s 10 best players including one consensus First Team All-American in Corey Kispert and two consensus Second Team All-Americans in Jalen Suggs and Drew Timme. They can and have won games against offensive juggernauts like Iowa, and defensive-first teams like Virginia. They’ve won games wire-to-wire, they’ve won games where they came back from early deficits, and they’ve still won big on nights where they didn’t have their best game. Mostly, they’ve won, and their games haven’t been particularly close by the final horn.
Individually, they’re the only team in D1 with four players averaging at least 10 points per game on 50 percent shooting (Corey Kispert, Drew Timme, Jalen Suggs, and Joel Ayayi). Why is that important? It’s not really possible to double-team anyone on the Zags for more than a possession at a time. Their starters play between 32-35 minutes a game, and all are capable of lighting you up. Game planning for them this year is a lot like trying to plug a hole in a leaking dike — fix one hole and another one breaks free. Creighton’s covered up for defensive flaws with double-teams all year, including in this NCAA Tournament. They’ll have no choice but to defend pretty much straight-up in this one.
Kispert leads them in scoring at 19.2 points per game. The 6’7″ senior shoots 64% inside the arc (105-of-164) and 45.8% outside of it (82-of-179). Exactly one-third of his shots have come at or near the rim (33.5%); he’s made an astounding 78.3% (90-of-115) of them. In other words, if he gets off a shot at the basket, it’s going in eight out of 10 times. If he shoots a three, it’s going in about half the time. And if he gets to the line? 90.1% shooter. No wonder he only had one game all year with fewer than 10 points.
He has 39 points in two games of the NCAA Tourney so far, including 23 against Norfolk State where he made 6-of-9 on three-pointers. In scoring 16 against Oklahoma, he was 4-of-8 on threes.
6’10” Drew Timme is second in scoring at 18.8 points per game, and does almost all of his work inside the arc. 68.1% of his shots have been at or near the rim, and like Kispert, he’s nearly automatic from that range — 76.6% of those shots (160-of-209) have gone in. He’s not nearly as good from anywhere else, but he also doesn’t shoot from anywhere else very often. Timme also leads the team in rebounding at 7.3 boards per game.
Timme has attempted 170 free throws — 69 more than anyone else on the team — and makes only 69.4% of them. He’s improved significantly as the year has gone on, though, and in the NCAA Tourney he’s 16-of-18 at the line. In his monster game against Oklahoma, Timme scored 30 points on 9-of-12 shooting and 12-of-14 at the line. He also had 13 rebounds (six offensive) and four assists.
Their third All-American is Jalen Suggs, a 6’4″ freshman who averages 14.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, and a team-high 4.3 assists and 2.0 steals per game. Suggs is a less efficient scorer from all three levels than Kispert or Timme, but still plenty good — he’s made 58.3% of his two-pointers, and 33.0% on threes. Suggs has not shot well in the tourney so far, however. He had six points in their first round blowout of Norfolk State (2-of-5 inside the arc, 0-of-3 outside of it), and though he had 16 points in the win over Oklahoma, he was 1-of-6 on three-pointers.
Joel Ayayi averages 11.9 points a game, and is their second-best three-point shooter by percentage (32-of-81, 39.5%). Much like Kispert and Timme, he’s nearly automatic at the rim — half of his shots come there, and he’s made 73.9%.
We haven’t even gotten to Andrew Nembhard, their fifth starter with numbers that would make him among the top players for almost anyone else; he was arguably Florida’s best player a year ago before transferring. Nembhard averages 8.9 points, 4.1 assists, and 2.9 rebounds a game. He’s mostly a distributor and facilitator for Gonzaga’s Big Four, and he’s really good in his role. He’s also the older brother of 2021 Creighton signee Ryan Nembhard.
Creighton’s ‘A’ game is not enough to win this game. They need something less than Gonzaga’s ‘A’ game, too, for this ride to continue into the Elite Eight. So what are the keys to that happening?
Shoot well from behind the arc and from the free throw line.
This sounds basic, but Creighton cannot give away points at the line like they have most of the year. 5-10 extra points in this one could be the difference between a game close enough to steal with a break or two late, and a 15-point loss. They also have to make their threes, which again, sounds simplistic. But if the Jays shoot in the neighborhood of 7-for-25 on threes (28%) as they did in the first round win against UCSB, it almost doesn’t matter what else they do or don’t do — this will end in a loss.
Turnovers.
Creighton has been really good in this area through two games in the NCAA Tournament. They had 11 against Ohio (15% of their possessions), and just eight against UCSB (12%). That needs to continue. Turning it over on 15% of your possessions is fine. Giving away 20% or more of your possessions (and therefore scoring opportunities) is not a winning recipe against Gonzaga.
On the flip side, Gonzaga has been really efficient at avoiding turnovers themselves — just 16% of their possessions have ended in a turnover (33rd best in D1) with only 8% as the result of something other than a steal (40th best). But if Creighton’s able to get even a few extra turnovers — or simply take full advantage of the ones they do get — it could make things interesting. Like most teams, Gonzaga’s defense is worse when they’re scrambling in transition than it is when they have time to set up in the half court. Opponents have an effective field goal percentage of 63.6% against the Bulldogs in transition, compared to 47.3% overall.
Rebound. Rebound. Rebound.
Gonzaga is a good, but not great, offensive rebounding team. They’ve grabbed a board on 30.7% of their missed shots, 85th best in D1. The problem? Every player on the team is such a great shooter that the odds of the Bulldogs missing two shots on one possession are slim. If you get them to miss one, you’d better get the board. They’re not likely to miss two. Especially in the paint, where no team in Division 1 is better.
Plus, if you clear the glass, you have transition scoring opportunities. See above.
Stay out of foul trouble.
Again, this seems basic, but if any of Creighton’s key guys — Christian Bishop, Marcus Zegarowski, Damien Jefferson in particular — see their minutes limited because of fouls, CU is in trouble. Ryan Kalkbrenner seems to have hit the freshman wall in this tourney and would need a prayer to contain Timme inside. Alex O’Connell and Antwann Jones have not played much with the shortened bench of the NCAA Tourney, and either of them getting big minutes because of foul trouble for Jefferson would be trouble. And as for Zegarowski — Creighton has no path to winning this game that does not involve 35-40 minutes of A+ basketball from their best player.
- Tip: Approx. 1:10pm Central
- Venue: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
- TV: CBS
- Announcers: Ian Eagle, Grant Hill and Jamie Erdahl
- In Omaha: Cox channel 3, CenturyLink Prism channel 3
- Satellite: DirecTV channel 3, Dish Network channel 3
- Streaming at http://ncaa.com/marchmadnesslive
- Creighton Radio: 1620AM
- Announcers: John Bishop and Nick Bahe
- No streaming or webcast allowed per NCAA regulations
- National Radio: Westwood One
- Announcers: Jason Benetti and Robbie Hummel
- Westwood One affiliates: http://westwoodonesports.com/stations
- Streaming at http://ncaa.com/marchmadnesslive
- Satellite radio:
- Westwood One feed on Sirius channel 138 and XM channel 210
- For Cord Cutters:
- CBS is available on all major streaming services including Hulu, Sling, AT&T TV, YouTube TV, and Fubo, and over the air for free with an HD antenna
- GU is making its 22nd consecutive NCAA Tournament Appearance and 23rd overall. The 22 straight berths to the field is the third-longest current streak in the nation (Kansas 31 and Michigan State 23). The Zags have 11 trips to the Sweet 16, four trips to the Elite Eight, one Final Four and an appearance in one national championship game. They’re the only program in America that has been in the last six Sweet 16s, a feat just three other programs have ever accomplished and they’re the bluest of the bluebloods — UCLA, Duke, and North Carolina. Oh, and they’re one of only two teams to win their opening round game in each of the last 12 NCAA Tournaments (along with Kansas).
- Gonzaga is shooting 54.9% from the floor this season. No D1 team has shot better than 55.0% over a full season since the 1988-89 Michigan Wolverines, who made 56.6% of their baskets and won the national title.
- GU tops the nation averaging 49.5 points in the paint per game, the highest such average by any D1 team over the past 15 seasons. The Zags outscore opponents 49.5-30.4 in the paint. There have been just five games this season in which a team scored 70 points in the paint against a Division I opponent; Gonzaga is responsible for three of the five. And the Bulldogs have reached at least 60 points in the paint in six games this season.
- With a win, Creighton would be among the final eight teams in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since its initial appearance in 1941 when the entire tournament field was just eight teams (CU lost its first game, then won a consolation game). Creighton would also win three NCAA Tournament games in the same season for the first time. And Greg McDermott would improve to 6-5 as Creighton’s head coach in the NCAA Tournament, giving him twice as many wins in the NCAA Tournament as any other Creighton men’s basketball coach.
- Christian Bishop has the most rebounds of any player in the 68-team NCAA Tournament so far, with 26. Bishop has also made 12-of-15 shots.
- Creighton and Gonzaga share just one common opponent this season: Kansas. Creighton lost 73-72 at Allen Fieldhouse on December 8th. Gonzaga opened its season with a 102-90 win vs. Kansas in Fort Myers, Fla.
Creighton is 6-4 all-time against Gonzaga in a series that dates to 1947. The teams have never met in the postseason or on a neutral floor.
In each of the last two meetings, Creighton led at halftime only to see Gonzaga run away in the second. In 2017 in Spokane, Creighton led for the first 23 minutes of the game, by as many as eight points. They led 44-37 at halftime. On their first 10 possessions of the second half, they had four turnovers, had three shots blocked at the rim, and found themselves caught in an avalanche of their own creation. A 21-4 Bulldog run turned a Bluejay lead into a Gonzaga blowout and a 91-74 win.
In 2018 in Omaha, the Jays either led or were tied with #1 Gonzaga for 25 minutes, by as many as 11 points. They were up 48-39 at the half. But just like in 2017, Gonzaga blitzed them out of the locker room — they made six of their first seven shots, and after 90 seconds that nine point lead was down to one. The teams traded haymakers for a while, but eventually Gonzaga pulled away for a 103-92 win.
Marcus Zegarowski, Mitch Ballock and Damien Jefferson were all on the floor for that one. They remember it well I’m sure.
On March 28, 2011, Creighton beat Oregon 84-76 in Game One of the Best-of-Three CBI Finals. From Ott’s Thoughts afterward:
“Let’s start with a serious question. Midway through Greg McDermott’s first season at Creighton, which did you think you’d see first: Dana Altman return to the Qwest Center with his Oregon Ducks, ready to play against a team the majority of which he recruited and coached, or the Bluejays score 82 or more points in four consecutive games? Remember, death is not an option.
Entering the College Basketball Invitational tournament, the Bluejays had put 80 points or more on the scoreboard four times in McDermott’s first year as CU head coach. And say what you will about the defense (or lack thereof) in the CBI to this point, but for a streaky shooting team like this year’s Jays squad to hang more than 80 on for straight opponents is cause for celebration on its own.
But add to that development the fact that the primary weapons contributing to this offensive onslaught return next season, and it is hard not to get giddy with excitement about what the immediate future may hold for CU hoops. Sure, we’ve been here before, seemingly on the precipice above a “sure thing” (see: the 2009-2010 season). But something just seems different this time.
For better or worse, perhaps that’s because it isn’t Dana Altman on the home bench. During Altman’s 16 years at Creighton, fans grew accustom to every facet of his role as head coach, both on and off the court. But McDermott’s regime is something new, and people like new. They like exciting. And again, regardless of the lack of defensive focus, Creighton’s CBI games have been exciting.”
Foreshadowing: This would be the last time anyone talked about a McDermott coached Bluejay team as low-scoring.
There’s a lot of fun WBR coverage from that one; you can check out all of it if you want here.
The Bottom Line:
“Great moments are born from great opportunity. And that’s what you have here tonight. That’s what you’ve earned here tonight. One game. If we played them 10 times they might win nine. But not this game. Not tonight.”
Creighton is a 13.5 point underdog. Since the 1995-96 season — that’s 25 years! — the Jays have played only seven total games where they were an underdog of 13 or more points. This will be the eighth. They’re 1-6 in those games, though they’ve covered the spread five times. The win? February 4, 2015 in overtime at Xavier, a 79-72 upset where Devin Brooks had a double-double with 13 points, 12 rebounds, six assists and three steals.
The most (only?) notable loss coincidentally also came in the NCAA Tournament, a March 1999 second round game against Maryland. Those Terrapins were stocked with future NBA talent like Steve Francis, Juan Dixon, Terence Morris, Lonny Baxter and Laron Profit — of the top six players on Maryland’s roster, five of them went on to play in the NBA. They defeated the Jays but did not cover, 75-63.
So not only is the Sweet 16 uncharted territory for the Jays, entering a game as underdogs of this magnitude is also uncharted. There’s two ways to think about that. One, you can be defeatist — Gonzaga is going to win no matter what Creighton does. They’re just that good. Or Two, you can say all the pressure is on Gonzaga, and with each game they win in this tourney, that pressure gets ratcheted up a little more. Not only is Creighton expected to lose, they’re expected to get blown out.
I prefer the second option. Yes, it’s true that if these teams played 10 times Gonzaga might win nine. But that tenth time? That could be Sunday.
Swing away, fellas.
