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Who’s Overperforming or Underperforming for the Jays? A Statistical Deep-Dive at the Season’s One-Third Mark

Heading into the start of Big East play on Wednesday night, Creighton has completed roughly 1/3 of the regular season. That’s enough games to start to see some trends emerging, so let’s take stock of the Jays’ roster with a deep dive into some advanced metrics, player by player.

Steven Ashworth has been terrific, with his three-point shooting (32-of-83, 38.6%) more in line with his numbers at Utah State than what he had in his first year at Creighton (80-of-229, 34.9%). He’s made at least two 3-pointers in every game he’s played this year. And it shows up in his effective field goal percentage, which is 56.1% — also a big jump from his 52.4% eFG a year ago. His true shooting percentage, which takes free throws into account, is even better at 63.7% (up from 56.9% a year ago), ranking 127th best in D1.

But it’s been his improvement in two other areas that has been most important to the Jays’ success.

Through 10 games, he’s made 43-of-44 at the free throw line (97.7%), which is obviously terrific on its own. But in 35 games a year ago, Ashworth was 68-of-75 (90.7%) — meaning he’s on pace to double both his attempts and makes. For a free throw shooter who rarely misses, that’s enormous.

He’s also assisted on 34.0% of his team’s made baskets while he’s been on the floor, a figure that ranks 39th best in all of D1. A year ago, he was at 22.3% — partially a product of Trey Alexander and Baylor Scheierman sharing ball-handling duties, yes, but also a product of Ashworth having a better understanding of Creighton’s offense and setting up his teammates to score. He’s had six or more assists in eight of the 10 games he’s played in; he did that just six times in 35 games a year ago. Interestingly, 40.3% of his assists have been on shots at the rim and 19.4% have come on in-the-paint two-pointers.

Ryan Kalkbrenner has been remarkably steady with his production of a year ago; funny enough, KenPom’s “similar player” comparison says the #1 comp for 2025 Ryan Kalkbrenner is…2024 Ryan Kalkbrenner. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen that happen before. With that said, the first 10 games have seen Kalkbrenner’s advanced metrics and percentage stats go up almost across the board, while his raw numbers have gone down.

His Offensive Rating of 139.5 would be the highest of his career by far if it holds, which is saying something considering he’s ranked among the top 25-30 players for four straight years. His previous best? 133.4 in 2022-23. His Effective Field Goal percentage is a cheat-code 73.7%, sixth best in all of D1 and three percentage points better than his previous best. His True Shooting Percentage, taking free throws into account, is 74.8% — fourth best in D1.

On the glass, his offensive rebound percentage of 9.3% is identical to a year ago, and in line with his 9.6% of two years ago. But his defensive rebound percentage of 17.0% is a career-high by nearly two percentage points. His block percentage of 7.3% is also in line with career norms (he was at 7.6% a year ago). And his turnover rate of 11.1% is the lowest of his career, a drop from the 12.1% he logged last year — and a big drop from the 13.6% and 13.8% turnover percentages he had in the two years prior.

But in terms of raw numbers, he’s taken a lot fewer shots and thus, scored fewer points despite better shooting percentages. Kalkbrenner has made 64-of-84 two-pointers (76.2%), putting him on pace to shoot 192-of-252 over a full season. That would be his lowest output since his sophomore season; he was 225-of-319 a year ago and 213-of-296 two years ago. Those numbers are even more wild when you consider he was 18-of-20 from the field in scoring 49 points in the opener. Since then, he’s a combined 46-of-64 shooting with 125 points in the other nine games he’s played in.

Jamiya Neal has been fantastic in transition, showing off an array of moves to finish at the rim and an ability to outrun opponents down the floor. The numbers back it up: 32.2% of his points have come in transition, and of his 70 two-point attempts, 20 (or 19.7%) have come in transition.

Other parts of his game have been less impressive. His turnover rate of 21.0% is really high (to put it in perspective, it means he’s had a turnover on one of every five possessions he’s been on the floor), and unfortunately, in line with his numbers at Arizona State. He’s struggled to defend without fouling, especially against high-major opponents, picking up four each against Alabama, Kansas and Notre Dame. And though his three-point shooting has been inconsistent (9-of-36, 25.0%) he’s attempted the fourth-most on the team.

And then there’s the logjam at the ‘4’ spot, with Jackson McAndrew, Isaac Traudt, Mason Miller and Jasen Green all fighting for minutes. The injury to Pop Isaacs has had a domino effect, with Neal now primarily playing the ‘2’, which has opened up minutes for Green at the ‘3’. In turn, that’s opened minutes for Traudt at the ‘4’ with McAndrew.

“Jasen started some and I didn’t really like how it was going. Isaac started some and I didn’t think he was terribly comfortable in that role. So we went with Jackson,” McDermott said on his postgame radio show after the UNLV game. “It’s kind of been, with this group, a case where we roll with whoever’s got it going that night.”

The freshman McAndrew has exceeded any and all reasonable expectations so far. His 20 made threes are second-best among active Bluejays (Pop Isaacs had 23 before his season-ending surgery; Ashworth has 32). And his effective field goal percentage of 53.6% is fourth-best on the team among players with 25 or more shot attempts.

More encouraging has been his ability to draw contact. He’s one of just four Bluejays with 10 or more made free throws, and his 80% free throw percentage is second only to Ashworth.

But that’s just what the stat sheet says. Putting the numbers into context is even more impressive. He hit a three-pointer with 57.0 seconds left against Texas A&M to briefly give the Jays a lead. He made back-to-back threes in the final 90 seconds at Alabama, drawing a foul on one of them and turning it into a four-point play, in an attempt at a last-second rally. His early made three against Kansas forced Bill Self to call timeout trailing 10-2 and set the tone for the rest of the night. And he hit four 3-pointers against San Diego State while the rest of the team combined to make two. A freshman that embraces big moments is always a special thing to witness, and McAndrew has it.

The rest of his game has yet to catch up, and he’ll need to get stronger to avoid getting pushed out of the way while fighting for rebounds. But the hype around McAndrew as the next great Bluejay player appears real.

“We need Jackson out there on offense, but defensively he’s not very strong yet,” McDermott said in Las Vegas a couple of weeks ago. “And the reality of it is he’s trying to block out and get some guys off the glass that are just bigger and stronger.”

Meanwhile, Mason Miller started all 33 games that he played in a year ago, and shot 45.4% (49-of-108) from three-point range. His offensive rating of 132.9 was the best on the team, showing how much he did with the role he had.

But this year has been a different story. He missed his first 15 three-point shots of the season, and is 3-of-21 (14.3%) for the year. His effective field goal percentage is just 20.4%, which sounds bad on the surface — but it’s even worse than that. Among players who’ve been on the floor for at least 20% of the team’s possessions, no Bluejay in the Greg McDermott Era has had an eFG% of lower than 38.8% for the season — and Devin Brooks is the only one below 40%. The bottom three:

  • 41.7% (Ronnie Harrell, freshman, 2015-16)
  • 40.8% (Austin Chatman, freshman, 2011-12)
  • 38.8% (Devin Brooks, senior, 2014-15)

If you go back as far as KenPom tracks (the 2001-02 season), there’s only been four other sub-40% seasons total.

  • 38.0% (Jeffrey Day, senior, 2005-06)
  • 37.0% (Andrew Bock, freshman, 2009-10)
  • 31.0% (Josh Dotzler, junior, 2007-08)
  • 28.8% (Josh Dotzler, sophomore, 2006-07)

The biggest beneficiary of Miller’s struggles has been Isaac Traudt, who’s played twice as many minutes (41.6% of CU’s total minutes) as he did as a freshman (19.1%). Traudt’s overall numbers are solid — he’s made 14-of-38 (36.8%) from three-point range — but 13 of those 14 threes came across just four games (five against UNLV, three each against UMKC and UTRGV, and two against Notre Dame). He has one made three in the other seven games combined.

Traudt has shown more ability to score in other ways, though. He’s 5-of-10 on two-pointers through 11 games, after shooting 6-of-12 in 31 games a year ago. He’s gone 4-of-4 at the line after going 5-of-6 all of last season. And he’s done other things to contribute — for example, his defensive rebound percentage is 14.1%, a huge jump from the 8.7% he logged last year.

Like Traudt, Jasen Green’s minutes have doubled from a year ago. He’s arguably done less with them, however. In 149 minutes over 11 games, he’s taken 24 shots, grabbed 24 rebounds and scored 31 points. Last year in 180 minutes over 25 games, his offensive numbers were similar (17-of-26 shooting, 39 points) but he had twice as many rebounds (43). 23 of those boards were offensive. This year? He has just three offensive boards.

“I thought Isaac defended really well tonight, and his progress on defense — where he’s at now compared to a year ago — there’s a significant improvement,” McDermott said on the postgame radio show after the Alabama game. “Jasen’s defensive versatility and ability to sneak into the post and get some baskets is gonna be important for us moving forward as well.”

It’s easy to look at Miller’s struggles and wonder when his minutes will start to shift to others. But the reality is no one else has made the case for themselves to be the beneficiary of more playing time at his expense, either. With all three bringing different skillsets, it’s going to continue to be a balancing act where the coaching staff tries to play matchups and figure out which one is the best option for that game.

Among the bench players, the biggest bright spot has undoubtedly been Fredrick King. He’s provided solid backup minutes to Kalkbrenner all season, and improved defensively. He had nine blocks all of last season in 192 minutes; he has eight blocks already this year in just 98 minutes. And while he still fouls more than you’d like, his foul rate of 5.4 fouls per 40 minutes is a big drop from last year (6.1).

Offensively, King has shown a better touch on his shot and a more varied arsenal beyond just dunking the ball. 66.7% of his shot attempts came at the rim two years ago, a number that rose to 75% last year, with the rest of his shot attempts coming from a variety of distances despite his shooting percentage getting significantly worse the further out he shot from. This year, 67.7% of his shots have been at the rim — and everything else has been short twos (less than 10 feet). He’s stopped taking shots that he struggles with, and unsurprisingly, his overall numbers have gone up. King has made 22-of-31 (71.0%) of his shots, after shooting 32-of-56 (57.1%) a year ago.

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