Futbol Friday

Many Creighton men’s soccer fans came into this season with pretty high expectations. The team was ranked near the top in all national polls, they had three, that’s right three, players named to the preseason Player of the Year watch list, and they were bringing back the majority of their minutes from a 2008 season that ended in the Elite Eight, just a game away from the College Cup Final Four. Fans were excited that their Jays were picked to win the valley and have a real shot at extending their run in the NCAA Tournament to 18 consecutive appearances.

Things have turned out a bit different than the “experts” predicted. Yes, Creighton is currently in first place in the Valley, but with just over two weeks left in the season, or two conference games remaining, the Jays will need some wins on the road and some teams to pull out some upsets to keep the top spot in the standings. The way the schedule has worked out, the Jays will have a bit of a hill to climb to end the season. With the rest of the Valley having four or five games remaining, it gives some of the other teams out there a chance to make a run at the Jays. Currently the standings are as follows:

Let’s go out on a limb and assume, for a minute, that the teams ranked higher will win their remaining match-ups against the teams lower in the standings. I realize this is a stretch on a number of levels, but I’m doing this to prove a point: If current standings hold in the next set of matches, the Bluejays will be in trouble. For example, if we apply this exercise to the matches through October 28, the standings would look like this:

With Drake playing three matches in this time frame, and the Bluejays playing only two, Creighton fans will need to hope for either an Evansville or Bradley upset of the Bulldogs next week. Personally, I’ll be hoping for all of them to beat the Bulldogs.

Speaking of upsets, the Bluejays have a great opportunity for one when they host the UCLA Bruins at Morrison Stadium on Halloween. Jays fans circled this match-up of college soccer powerhouses on the calendar immediately when the schedule was released. And as many realized way back then that a win in this showdown would be nice, the Bluejays’ early season fortunes as they’ve unfolded make this match a must win for Creighton. It would serve as a big statement to the NCAA selection committee if CU can’t secure the automatic bid in Des Moines in a few weeks.

Back to the projections. Let’s continue through the MVC schedule, assuming the teams higher than their opponents in the standings continue to win.

That’s right: the Jays would finish as the third seed in the MVC Tournament, hosted by Drake. As I said before, this little look into the future takes a lot of liberty with the intricacies in the game of soccer.

A few things to keep in mind as we watch the remainder of the season unfold: Creighton is currently 1-0-2 in conference road games, with their final two MVC matches on the road. The good news, they will travel to Eastern Illinois, a team they beat 5-1. The bad news: if things go somewhat similar to the projections above, the Jays’ trip to Des Moines for the season-ending match against Drake will mean the world to Creighton’s chances for a better seed in the MVC tournament as they jockey for another NCAA Tournament bid.

Speaking of Drake, they have five MVC matches left — the most remaining MVC matches of any teams in conference. They have the potential to make quite a run, as we have seen above. Still, three of those five matches are on the road. Either way it is turning out to be a very interesting end of the season, featuring a situation many Creighton futbol fans didn’t anticipate a few months ago.

We have heard over and over that soccer is a game where anyone can win on any given day. A simple slip of a keeper or a misplayed ball by a defender can change the game in a second. Here at White & Blue Review, we have a ton of respect for the Creighton coaching staff, and if anyone can get the team to play that we all expected, it is this group.